The Effect of the Early Home Goal and 1-1 Half Time in League 1

[jonnyg]

In the table below I have added the last 36 games in League 1 where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and the half time game state was 1-1 ;

12-21-3 <> away teams won 8%

T HT FT
Rochdale Charlton 4 1 1 3 3
Oldham Coventry 8 1 1 3 2
Walsall Sheff UTD 5 1 1 4 1
Coventry AFC 2 1 1 2 2
Rochdale Fleetwood 10 1 1 2 1
Southend Millwall 6 1 1 3 1
Donny Pete 5 1 1 1 2
Southend Burton 7 1 1 3 1
Crewe Fleetwood 5 1 1 1 1
Oldham Sheff UTD 10 1 1 1 1
Walsall Crewe 3 1 1 1 1
Fleetwood Bradford 3 1 1 1 1
Crewe Orient 10 1 1 1 1
Walsall MK Dons 8 1 1 1 1
Fleetwood Scunthorpe 3 1 1 2 2
Scunthorpe Crewe 10 1 1 2 1
Rochdale Doncaster 8 1 1 1 3
Oldham Crawley 7 1 1 1 1
Bristol City Bradford 8 1 1 2 2
Bristol City Chesterfield 9 1 1 3 2
Walsall Preston 7 1 1 3 1
Gillingham Swindon 9 1 1 2 2
Preston Gillingham 8 1 1 3 1
Oldham Bristol City 5 1 1 1 1
Bradford Bristol City 1 1 1 1 1
Tranmere MK Dons 7 1 1 3 2
Shrewsbury Colchester 4 1 1 1 1
Colchester Crawley 5 1 1 1 1
Coventry Gillingham 2 1 1 2 1
Bournemouth Bury 8 1 1 4 1
Crewe Shrewsbury 10 1 1 1 1
Scunthorpe Coventry 8 1 1 1 2
MK Dons Preston 2 1 1 1 1
Swindon Doncaster 8 1 1 1 1
Crewe Orient 2 1 1 1 1
Sheff. UTD Bury 10 1 1 1 1




How does the time of the opening goal in an individual league added to the half time game state effect accuracy in the 2nd half ?

[cheets]

Having a look through those statistics there does not seem to be anything that stands out and it may require a comparison to different times goals are scored. The only relevant analysis I can draw from that is that the home side scoring an early goal and it being 1-1 at half time provides little additional insight to the rest of the game. As you can see the majority of games are draws (I would expect in most matches that a draw would be favourite when drawing at half time) and that the home team go on to win more than the away team.
If you feel there is something to this early goal and draw analysis it would need comparing to matches say when the first goal is scored after the first 10 minutes or when the away team scores first or when there is no goal at all. if you can then draw statistical differences between datasets for example if the home team goes on to win more at 0-0 than it does when opening the scoring early and it being 1-1 then you may be on to something

happy trading

[jonnyg]

I am certainly onto something having spent the last 5 years looking at the effect of the early goal in individual leagues added to the game state as time decays >

I have looked at the expected game pathways > what is interesting re league 1 in this profile is that there is draw bias < but when you look at the majority of leagues > in terms of the early goal and we see lowered expectation of a draw < the point I was making in league 1 re this profile was the high % of draws

[jonnyg]

In 2013/2014 in league 1 where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 , 76% home wins, 17% ended a draw, and the away teams won 7%



Both teams scored in 66% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 56%

63% ended over 2.5 goals

In 2014/2015 in league 1 where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 , 65% home wins , 20% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 15%



Both teams scored in 73% and over 1.5 goal was landed in the first half in 79%

79% ended over 2.5 goals

last season in League 1 where the home teams opened the scoring 0-10, 71% home wins, 20% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 9%



Both teams scored in 54% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 63%

65% ended over 2.5 goals

41% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes



GAME PATHWAY

2/68 1-0 FT

21/68 > 1-1 5-11-5 <> home teams won 24%

45/68 > 2-0 41-3-1 <> home teams won 91%

[jonnyg]

this is a key point > if you look at league 1 in games in general where the home team open the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band < lowered expectation of a draw

BUT in the 1-1 HT game state < very strong draw bias >

[jonnyg]

n League 2 last season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , 64% ended over 2.5 goals and 37% ended over 3.5 goals

Both team scored in 58% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 57%

The home teams won 72%, 18% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 10%

1-0 half time to the home team with the early home goal metric . league 2 2014-2015 > 86% ended a home win and 62% ended under 2.5 goals.

last season in League 2 where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 77% ended over 2.5 goals and 54% ended over 3.5 goals

Both team scored in 70% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 72%

The home teams won 63%, 14% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 23%

1-0 half time to the home teams in the table below, 62.5% ended a home win and 62.5% ended under 2.5 goals

44% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY ( 2015-2016)

3/57 1-0 FT

> 1-1 20/57 <> 3-6-11 <> home teams won 15%

> 2-0 34/57 <> 30-2-2 <> home teams won 88%



“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal “

In league 2 in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes it is the home team that will be more likely to score the 2nd goal.




Key point > if we look at league 2 in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 and 1-1 HT > we see a rather different outcome in general to league 1 <

[jonnyg]

In the table below I have added the last 34 games in League 2 where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band > 1-1 pathway with the second goal ( 1-1 ) in the first half ;

12-11-11

97% ended over 2.5 goals, 88% ended over 3.5 goals and 38% ended over 4.5 goals

32% produced the T+1 goal within 10 minutes of the opening goal < and 0% ended 1-1 FT < so if you are looking at a 1-1 FT sample to define if teams are vulnerable to a quick response then you are barking up the wrong tree



no draw bias

[jonnyg]

what I have cracked is an understanding of the expected pathway in early goal games so in basic terms >

how likely is 1-0 FT / 0-1 FT , > 1-1 < 2-0/ 0-2 < in an individual league with an early goal < so by definition how will the expected pathway effect expectation of a draw in that game ?

[jonnyg]

"If you feel there is something to this early goal and draw analysis it would need comparing to matches say when the first goal is scored after the first 10 minutes or when the away team scores first or when there is no goal at all. if you can then draw statistical differences between datasets for example if the home team goes on to win more at 0-0 than it does when opening the scoring early and it being 1-1 then you may be on to something"

I have spent the last 5 years looking at that

[jonnyg]

E2 1617 2017-03-04 Northampton Charlton 1-1 2-1
E2 1617 2017-03-04 Millwall Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 2-1
E2 1617 2017-03-04 Bolton AFC Wimbledon 1-1 1-1
E2 1617 2017-02-18 Rochdale Charlton 1-1 3-3
E2 1617 2017-02-11 Bristol Rvs Bradford 1-1 1-1
E2 1617 2017-02-11 Oldham Coventry 1-1 3-2
E2 1617 2017-02-04 Southend Scunthorpe 1-1 3-1
E2 1617 2017-01-28 Oldham Bradford 1-1 1-2
E2 1617 2017-01-14 Walsall Sheffield United 1-1 4-1
E2 1617 2017-01-14 Northampton Scunthorpe 1-1 1-2
E2 1617 2017-01-02 Charlton Bristol Rvs 1-1 4-1
E2 1617 2017-01-02 Bury Sheffield United 1-1 1-3
E2 1617 2016-12-17 Swindon Fleetwood Town 1-1 1-1
E2 1617 2016-12-17 Northampton Rochdale 1-1 2-3
E2 1617 2016-11-26 Coventry Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 1-2
E2 1617 2016-11-19 Walsall Gillingham 1-1 1-2
E2 1617 2016-10-29 Oxford Millwall 1-1 1-2
E2 1617 2016-10-29 Southend Shrewsbury 1-1 1-1
E2 1617 2016-10-29 AFC Wimbledon Bradford 1-1 2-3
E2 1617 2016-10-22 Bradford Sheffield United 1-1 3-3
E2 1617 2016-10-18 Bury AFC Wimbledon 1-1 1-2
E2 1617 2016-10-08 Peterboro Bury 1-1 3-1
E2 1617 2016-10-01 Shrewsbury Swindon 1-1 1-1
E2 1617 2016-10-01 Walsall Millwall 1-1 2-1
E2 1617 2016-09-28 Coventry AFC Wimbledon 1-1 2-2
E2 1617 2016-09-27 Southend Oxford 1-1 2-1
E2 1617 2016-09-27 Bradford Fleetwood Town 1-1 2-1
E2 1617 2016-09-24 Bury Chesterfield 1-1 2-1
E2 1617 2016-09-24 Peterboro Walsall 1-1 1-1
E2 1617 2016-09-24 Gillingham Coventry 1-1 2-1
E2 1617 2016-09-24 Bristol Rvs Port Vale 1-1 2-1
E2 1617 2016-09-17 Rochdale Fleetwood Town 1-1 2-1
E2 1617 2016-09-17 Southend Millwall 1-1 3-1
E2 1617 2016-09-13 Bristol Rvs Walsall 1-1 1-1
E2 1617 2016-09-10 Peterboro Port Vale 1-1 2-2
E2 1617 2016-09-10 Gillingham Bradford 1-1 1-1
E2 1617 2016-09-03 Oldham Shrewsbury 1-1 2-3
E2 1617 2016-08-27 Port Vale Scunthorpe 1-1 3-1
E2 1617 2016-08-20 Shrewsbury Chesterfield 1-1 2-1
E2 1617 2016-08-20 Millwall Sheffield United 1-1 2-1
E2 1617 2016-08-14 Bristol Rvs Oxford 1-1 2-1
E2 1617 2016-08-13 AFC Wimbledon Bolton 1-1 1-2
E2 1617 2016-08-06 Southend Gillingham 1-1 1-3
E2 1516 2016-04-30 Crewe Doncaster 1-1 3-1
E2 1516 2016-04-23 Gillingham Shrewsbury 1-1 2-3
E2 1516 2016-04-19 Chesterfield Doncaster 1-1 1-1
E2 1516 2016-04-19 Burton Wigan 1-1 1-1
E2 1516 2016-04-16 Crewe Scunthorpe 1-1 2-3
E2 1516 2016-04-02 Shrewsbury Wigan 1-1 1-5
E2 1516 2016-03-30 Southend Sheffield United 1-1 3-1
E2 1516 2016-03-25 Rochdale Southend 1-1 4-1
E2 1516 2016-03-19 Doncaster Peterboro 1-1 1-2
E2 1516 2016-03-19 Oldham Rochdale 1-1 2-3
E2 1516 2016-03-12 Chesterfield Walsall 1-1 1-4
E2 1516 2016-03-05 Crewe Burton 1-1 1-1
E2 1516 2016-03-05 Walsall Barnsley 1-1 1-3
E2 1516 2016-03-05 Fleetwood Town Sheffield United 1-1 2-2
E2 1516 2016-03-01 Bradford Colchester 1-1 1-2
E2 1516 2016-02-27 Doncaster Millwall 1-1 1-1
E2 1516 2016-02-23 Peterboro Oldham 1-1 1-2
E2 1516 2016-02-22 Southend Burton 1-1 3-1
E2 1516 2016-02-20 Bradford Rochdale 1-1 2-2
E2 1516 2016-02-20 Swindon Blackpool 1-1 3-2
E2 1516 2016-01-23 Crewe Wigan 1-1 1-1
E2 1516 2016-01-23 Chesterfield Millwall 1-1 1-2
E2 1516 2016-01-02 Scunthorpe Wigan 1-1 1-1
E2 1516 2016-01-02 Sheffield United Peterboro 1-1 2-3
E2 1516 2015-12-28 Scunthorpe Rochdale 1-1 1-1
E2 1516 2015-12-28 Crewe Shrewsbury 1-1 1-2
E2 1516 2015-12-19 Burton Doncaster 1-1 3-3
E2 1516 2015-12-19 Crewe Fleetwood Town 1-1 1-1
E2 1516 2015-12-12 Doncaster Crewe 1-1 3-2
E2 1516 2015-12-12 Port Vale Scunthorpe 1-1 1-1
E2 1516 2015-12-01 Shrewsbury Walsall 1-1 1-3
E2 1516 2015-11-28 Shrewsbury Gillingham 1-1 2-2
E2 1516 2015-11-28 Rochdale Port Vale 1-1 2-1
E2 1516 2015-11-24 Peterboro Barnsley 1-1 3-2
E2 1516 2015-10-20 Shrewsbury Doncaster 1-1 1-2
E2 1516 2015-10-20 Colchester Port Vale 1-1 2-1
E2 1516 2015-10-17 Oldham Sheffield United 1-1 1-1
E2 1516 2015-10-10 Chesterfield Gillingham 1-1 1-3
E2 1516 2015-10-10 Barnsley Crewe 1-1 1-2
E2 1516 2015-10-03 Rochdale Bradford 1-1 1-3
E2 1516 2015-10-03 Crewe Chesterfield 1-1 1-2
E2 1516 2015-09-29 Peterboro Bury 1-1 2-3
E2 1516 2015-09-26 Walsall Crewe 1-1 1-1
E2 1516 2015-09-26 Southend Scunthorpe 1-1 2-1
E2 1516 2015-09-19 Doncaster Oldham 1-1 1-1
E2 1516 2015-09-12 Fleetwood Town Bradford 1-1 1-1
E2 1516 2015-09-12 Crewe Millwall 1-1 1-3
E2 1516 2015-09-12 Chesterfield Colchester 1-1 3-3
E2 1516 2015-09-06 Burton Coventry 1-1 1-2
E2 1516 2015-09-05 Barnsley Shrewsbury 1-1 1-2
E2 1516 2015-08-18 Swindon Port Vale 1-1 2-2
E2 1516 2015-08-18 Millwall Barnsley 1-1 2-3
E2 1516 2015-08-18 Coventry Crewe 1-1 3-2
E2 1516 2015-08-15 Port Vale Gillingham 1-1 1-1
E2 1415 2015-04-25 Peterboro Crawley Town 1-1 4-3
E2 1415 2015-04-11 Crewe Leyton Orient 1-1 1-1
E2 1415 2015-04-07 Sheffield United Doncaster 1-1 3-2
E2 1415 2015-03-28 Notts County Scunthorpe 1-1 2-2
E2 1415 2015-03-28 Bristol City Barnsley 1-1 2-2
E2 1415 2015-03-17 Notts County Rochdale 1-1 1-2
E2 1415 2015-03-14 Walsall Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 1-1
E2 1415 2015-03-14 Scunthorpe Sheffield United 1-1 1-1
E2 1415 2015-03-14 Chesterfield Coventry 1-1 2-3
E2 1415 2015-03-07 Gillingham Doncaster 1-1 1-1
E2 1415 2015-03-03 Fleetwood Town Scunthorpe 1-1 2-2
E2 1415 2015-02-21 Fleetwood Town Notts County 1-1 2-1
E2 1415 2015-02-17 Notts County Sheffield United 1-1 1-2
E2 1415 2015-02-14 Chesterfield Leyton Orient 1-1 2-3
E2 1415 2015-01-24 Notts County Peterboro 1-1 1-2
E2 1415 2015-01-17 Port Vale Peterboro 1-1 2-1
E2 1415 2015-01-16 Preston Leyton Orient 1-1 2-2
E2 1415 2015-01-10 Bradford Rochdale 1-1 1-2
E2 1415 2015-01-03 Port Vale Gillingham 1-1 2-1
E2 1415 2014-12-26 Walsall Swindon 1-1 1-4
E2 1415 2014-12-13 Leyton Orient Peterboro 1-1 1-2
E2 1415 2014-12-13 Scunthorpe Crewe 1-1 2-1
E2 1415 2014-11-29 Gillingham Port Vale 1-1 2-2
E2 1415 2014-11-25 Milton Keynes Dons Rochdale 1-1 2-2
E2 1415 2014-11-22 Rochdale Doncaster 1-1 1-3
E2 1415 2014-11-15 Oldham Crawley Town 1-1 1-1
E2 1415 2014-11-14 Barnsley Colchester 1-1 3-2
E2 1415 2014-11-01 Notts County Walsall 1-1 1-2
E2 1415 2014-10-25 Gillingham Crawley Town 1-1 1-1
E2 1415 2014-10-21 Bristol City Bradford 1-1 2-2
E2 1415 2014-10-21 Port Vale Scunthorpe 1-1 2-2
E2 1415 2014-10-18 Scunthorpe Colchester 1-1 1-1
E2 1415 2014-10-18 Peterboro Barnsley 1-1 2-1
E2 1415 2014-10-11 Bristol City Chesterfield 1-1 3-2
E2 1415 2014-10-11 Colchester Fleetwood Town 1-1 2-1
E2 1415 2014-10-11 Oldham Walsall 1-1 2-1
E2 1415 2014-10-04 Scunthorpe Doncaster 1-1 1-2
E2 1415 2014-10-04 Peterboro Oldham 1-1 2-2
E2 1415 2014-09-27 Bradford Port Vale 1-1 1-1
E2 1415 2014-09-20 Fleetwood Town Bristol City 1-1 3-3
E2 1415 2014-09-16 Gillingham Peterboro 1-1 2-1
E2 1415 2014-09-16 Scunthorpe Coventry 1-1 2-1
E2 1415 2014-09-16 Swindon Oldham 1-1 2-2
E2 1415 2014-09-13 Walsall Preston 1-1 3-1
E2 1415 2014-08-30 Port Vale Chesterfield 1-1 1-2
E2 1415 2014-08-30 Preston Sheffield United 1-1 1-1
E2 1415 2014-08-19 Gillingham Swindon 1-1 2-2
E2 1415 2014-08-19 Peterboro Sheffield United 1-1 1-2
E2 1415 2014-08-16 Oldham Leyton Orient 1-1 1-3
E2 1415 2014-08-09 Sheffield United Bristol City 1-1 1-2
E2 1415 2014-08-09 Bradford Coventry 1-1 3-2
E2 1314 2014-04-26 Preston Gillingham 1-1 3-1
E2 1314 2014-04-18 Bristol City Notts County 1-1 2-1
E2 1314 2014-04-18 Crawley Town Leyton Orient 1-1 2-1
E2 1314 2014-04-18 Coventry Swindon 1-1 1-2
E2 1314 2014-04-12 Stevenage Colchester 1-1 2-3
E2 1314 2014-04-05 Colchester Tranmere 1-1 1-2
E2 1314 2014-04-05 Gillingham Rotherham 1-1 3-4
E2 1314 2014-03-25 Tranmere Swindon 1-1 1-2
E2 1314 2014-03-25 Preston Peterboro 1-1 3-1
E2 1314 2014-03-22 Gillingham Crewe 1-1 1-3
E2 1314 2014-03-08 Shrewsbury Bristol City 1-1 2-3
E2 1314 2014-03-01 Tranmere Oldham 1-1 2-2
E2 1314 2014-02-22 Carlisle Rotherham 1-1 1-2
E2 1314 2014-02-15 Bristol City Tranmere 1-1 2-2
E2 1314 2014-02-08 Oldham Bristol City 1-1 1-1
E2 1314 2014-02-08 Tranmere Preston 1-1 1-2
E2 1314 2014-01-25 Swindon Shrewsbury 1-1 3-1
E2 1314 2014-01-25 Rotherham Crawley Town 1-1 2-2
E2 1314 2014-01-18 Walsall Brentford 1-1 1-1
E2 1314 2014-01-11 Bradford Bristol City 1-1 1-1
E2 1314 2014-01-11 Notts County Sheffield United 1-1 2-1
E2 1314 2014-01-11 Rotherham Crewe 1-1 4-2
E2 1314 2014-01-01 Oldham Shrewsbury 1-1 1-2
E2 1314 2013-12-26 Port Vale Notts County 1-1 2-1
E2 1314 2013-12-26 Brentford Swindon 1-1 3-2
E2 1314 2013-12-14 Coventry Crewe 1-1 2-2
E2 1314 2013-12-01 Oldham Bradford 1-1 1-1
E2 1314 2013-11-26 Shrewsbury Oldham 1-1 1-2
E2 1314 2013-11-23 Crewe Port Vale 1-1 1-2
E2 1314 2013-11-16 Tranmere Bristol City 1-1 1-1
E2 1314 2013-11-16 Sheffield United Gillingham 1-1 1-2
E2 1314 2013-11-02 Peterboro Leyton Orient 1-1 1-3
E2 1314 2013-10-29 Notts County Oldham 1-1 3-2
E2 1314 2013-10-26 Tranmere Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 3-2
E2 1314 2013-10-22 Preston Bradford 1-1 2-2
E2 1314 2013-10-22 Shrewsbury Colchester 1-1 1-1
E2 1314 2013-10-19 Sheffield United Port Vale 1-1 2-1
E2 1314 2013-10-12 Leyton Orient Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 2-1
E2 1314 2013-09-28 Carlisle Notts County 1-1 2-1
E2 1314 2013-09-21 Walsall Rotherham 1-1 1-1
E2 1314 2013-09-21 Colchester Crawley Town 1-1 1-1
E2 1314 2013-09-15 Coventry Gillingham 1-1 2-1
E2 1314 2013-09-14 Rotherham Oldham 1-1 3-2
E2 1314 2013-08-31 Colchester Leyton Orient 1-1 1-2
E2 1314 2013-08-31 Gillingham Bristol City 1-1 1-1
E2 1314 2013-08-25 Coventry Preston 1-1 4-4
E2 1314 2013-08-24 Oldham Port Vale 1-1 3-1
E2 1314 2013-08-24 Swindon Gillingham 1-1 2-2
E2 1314 2013-08-17 Sheffield United Colchester 1-1 1-1
E2 1314 2013-08-17 Crawley Town Rotherham 1-1 1-2
E2 1314 2013-08-10 Notts County Peterboro 1-1 2-4
E2 1314 2013-08-03 Port Vale Brentford 1-1 1-1
E2 1314 2013-08-03 Bristol City Bradford 1-1 2-2
E2 1213 2013-04-20 Hartlepool Brentford 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2013-04-13 Brentford Portsmouth 1-1 3-2
E2 1213 2013-04-13 Carlisle Preston 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2013-04-13 Notts County Colchester 1-1 3-1
E2 1213 2013-03-23 Carlisle Yeovil 1-1 3-3
E2 1213 2013-03-23 Bournemouth Bury 1-1 4-1
E2 1213 2013-03-19 Crewe Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 2-1
E2 1213 2013-03-16 Crewe Shrewsbury 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2013-03-09 Swindon Walsall 1-1 2-2
E2 1213 2013-03-09 Scunthorpe Coventry 1-1 1-2
E2 1213 2013-03-09 Colchester Crewe 1-1 1-2
E2 1213 2013-03-02 Milton Keynes Dons Preston 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2013-02-26 Portsmouth Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2013-02-23 Coventry Crewe 1-1 1-2
E2 1213 2013-02-23 Doncaster Yeovil 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2013-02-23 Shrewsbury Stevenage 1-1 2-1
E2 1213 2013-02-18 Crawley Town Doncaster 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2013-02-09 Doncaster Walsall 1-1 1-2
E2 1213 2013-02-05 Scunthorpe Portsmouth 1-1 2-1
E2 1213 2013-02-02 Walsall Oldham 1-1 3-1
E2 1213 2013-01-29 Yeovil Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 2-1
E2 1213 2013-01-26 Preston Coventry 1-1 2-2
E2 1213 2013-01-12 Leyton Orient Crewe 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2012-12-29 Sheffield United Hartlepool 1-1 2-3
E2 1213 2012-12-26 Oldham Doncaster 1-1 1-2
E2 1213 2012-12-26 Portsmouth Crawley Town 1-1 1-2
E2 1213 2012-12-21 Bury Shrewsbury 1-1 2-2
E2 1213 2012-12-15 Shrewsbury Carlisle 1-1 2-1
E2 1213 2012-12-15 Notts County Brentford 1-1 1-2
E2 1213 2012-12-08 Brentford Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 3-2
E2 1213 2012-12-08 Swindon Doncaster 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2012-11-17 Sheffield United Stevenage 1-1 4-1
E2 1213 2012-11-17 Crawley Town Walsall 1-1 2-2
E2 1213 2012-11-10 Brentford Carlisle 1-1 2-1
E2 1213 2012-11-10 Coventry Scunthorpe 1-1 1-2
E2 1213 2012-11-10 Notts County Crawley Town 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2012-11-06 Yeovil Stevenage 1-1 1-3
E2 1213 2012-10-27 Bury Walsall 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2012-10-27 Brentford Hartlepool 1-1 2-2
E2 1213 2012-10-23 Brentford Coventry 1-1 2-1
E2 1213 2012-10-06 Crewe Hartlepool 1-1 2-1
E2 1213 2012-10-06 Walsall Carlisle 1-1 1-2
E2 1213 2012-10-02 Doncaster Preston 1-1 1-3
E2 1213 2012-10-02 Coventry Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2012-09-29 Portsmouth Scunthorpe 1-1 2-1
E2 1213 2012-09-22 Coventry Carlisle 1-1 1-2
E2 1213 2012-09-22 Crewe Leyton Orient 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2012-09-22 Hartlepool Shrewsbury 1-1 2-2
E2 1213 2012-09-22 Walsall Preston 1-1 3-1
E2 1213 2012-09-18 Oldham Scunthorpe 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2012-09-15 Sheffield United Bury 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2012-09-15 Colchester Doncaster 1-1 1-2
E2 1213 2012-09-09 Coventry Stevenage 1-1 1-2
E2 1213 2012-09-01 Stevenage Shrewsbury 1-1 1-1
E2 1213 2012-08-21 Scunthorpe Crewe 1-1 1-2
E2 1213 2012-08-21 Doncaster Bury 1-1 2-1
E2 1213 2012-08-21 Colchester Portsmouth 1-1 2-2
E2 1213 2012-08-18 Yeovil Coventry 1-1 1-1
E2 1112 2012-05-05 Exeter Sheffield United 1-1 2-2
E2 1112 2012-04-28 Yeovil Chesterfield 1-1 3-2
E2 1112 2012-04-28 Hartlepool Leyton Orient 1-1 2-1
E2 1112 2012-04-21 Charlton Wycombe 1-1 2-1
E2 1112 2012-04-14 Sheffield United Leyton Orient 1-1 3-1
E2 1112 2012-04-14 Wycombe Oldham 1-1 2-2
E2 1112 2012-03-31 Chesterfield Scunthorpe 1-1 1-4
E2 1112 2012-03-28 Sheffield United Chesterfield 1-1 4-1
E2 1112 2012-03-17 Scunthorpe Charlton 1-1 1-1
E2 1112 2012-03-17 Rochdale Oldham 1-1 3-2
E2 1112 2012-03-13 Tranmere Preston 1-1 2-1
E2 1112 2012-03-10 Huddersfield Rochdale 1-1 2-2
E2 1112 2012-03-10 Carlisle Bury 1-1 4-1
E2 1112 2012-02-18 Sheffield United Preston 1-1 2-1
E2 1112 2012-02-14 Bournemouth Leyton Orient 1-1 1-2
E2 1112 2012-01-31 Milton Keynes Dons Sheffield Weds 1-1 1-1
E2 1112 2012-01-24 Stevenage Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 4-2
E2 1112 2012-01-14 Yeovil Tranmere 1-1 2-1
E2 1112 2012-01-14 Preston Wycombe 1-1 3-2
E2 1112 2012-01-14 Colchester Scunthorpe 1-1 1-1
E2 1112 2012-01-14 Bournemouth Notts County 1-1 2-1
E2 1112 2012-01-02 Rochdale Preston 1-1 1-1
E2 1112 2012-01-02 Chesterfield Oldham 1-1 1-1
E2 1112 2011-12-30 Huddersfield Carlisle 1-1 1-1
E2 1112 2011-12-27 Sheffield United Notts County 1-1 2-1
E2 1112 2011-12-26 Yeovil Charlton 1-1 2-3
E2 1112 2011-12-10 Wycombe Chesterfield 1-1 3-2
E2 1112 2011-12-10 Walsall Charlton 1-1 1-1
E2 1112 2011-11-26 Notts County Scunthorpe 1-1 3-2
E2 1112 2011-11-19 Walsall Bury 1-1 2-4
E2 1112 2011-11-19 Tranmere Sheffield Weds 1-1 1-2
E2 1112 2011-11-05 Chesterfield Yeovil 1-1 2-2
E2 1112 2011-10-29 Brentford Chesterfield 1-1 2-1
E2 1112 2011-10-25 Bury Notts County 1-1 2-2
E2 1112 2011-10-25 Scunthorpe Huddersfield 1-1 2-2
E2 1112 2011-10-25 Walsall Exeter 1-1 1-2
E2 1112 2011-10-22 Exeter Rochdale 1-1 3-1
E2 1112 2011-10-22 Bournemouth Bury 1-1 1-2
E2 1112 2011-10-08 Colchester Yeovil 1-1 2-2
E2 1112 2011-10-08 Carlisle Brentford 1-1 2-2
E2 1112 2011-10-01 Rochdale Wycombe 1-1 2-1
E2 1112 2011-10-01 Yeovil Bury 1-1 1-3
E2 1112 2011-09-24 Scunthorpe Yeovil 1-1 2-1
E2 1112 2011-09-24 Bournemouth Hartlepool 1-1 1-2
E2 1112 2011-09-13 Exeter Notts County 1-1 1-1
E2 1112 2011-09-13 Leyton Orient Bournemouth 1-1 1-3
E2 1112 2011-09-10 Oldham Stevenage 1-1 1-1
E2 1112 2011-09-09 Preston Yeovil 1-1 4-3
E2 1112 2011-09-03 Oldham Huddersfield 1-1 1-1
E2 1112 2011-08-27 Rochdale Hartlepool 1-1 1-3
E2 1112 2011-08-27 Exeter Chesterfield 1-1 2-1
E2 1112 2011-08-20 Walsall Yeovil 1-1 1-1
E2 1112 2011-08-20 Milton Keynes Dons Chesterfield 1-1 6-2
E2 1112 2011-08-13 Hartlepool Walsall 1-1 1-1
E2 1112 2011-08-13 Rochdale Huddersfield 1-1 2-2
E2 1112 2011-08-06 Wycombe Scunthorpe 1-1 1-1
E2 1011 2011-05-07 Oldham Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 1-2
E2 1011 2011-05-07 Notts County Brighton 1-1 1-1
E2 1011 2011-05-07 Bournemouth Rochdale 1-1 1-2
E2 1011 2011-04-30 Bristol Rvs Sheffield Weds 1-1 1-1
E2 1011 2011-04-30 Rochdale Peterboro 1-1 2-2
E2 1011 2011-04-23 Walsall Sheffield Weds 1-1 1-1
E2 1011 2011-04-23 Rochdale Carlisle 1-1 2-3
E2 1011 2011-04-16 Exeter Leyton Orient 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2011-04-16 Walsall Brighton 1-1 1-3
E2 1011 2011-04-12 Walsall Brentford 1-1 3-2
E2 1011 2011-04-09 Milton Keynes Dons Carlisle 1-1 3-2
E2 1011 2011-04-09 Hartlepool Yeovil 1-1 3-1
E2 1011 2011-04-02 Rochdale Brighton 1-1 2-2
E2 1011 2011-03-26 Bournemouth Charlton 1-1 2-2
E2 1011 2011-03-26 Brighton Swindon 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2011-03-26 Colchester Exeter 1-1 5-1
E2 1011 2011-03-25 Bristol Rvs Peterboro 1-1 2-2
E2 1011 2011-03-12 Bournemouth Southampton 1-1 1-3
E2 1011 2011-03-12 Yeovil Walsall 1-1 1-1
E2 1011 2011-03-05 Brighton Carlisle 1-1 4-3
E2 1011 2011-03-01 Charlton Carlisle 1-1 1-3
E2 1011 2011-02-26 Plymouth Colchester 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2011-02-22 Peterboro Colchester 1-1 1-1
E2 1011 2011-02-12 Dag and Red Yeovil 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2011-02-05 Bristol Rvs Brighton 1-1 2-4
E2 1011 2011-01-29 Brentford Yeovil 1-1 1-2
E2 1011 2011-01-28 Colchester Peterboro 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2011-01-25 Sheffield Weds Yeovil 1-1 2-2
E2 1011 2011-01-03 Charlton Swindon 1-1 2-4
E2 1011 2011-01-03 Peterboro Walsall 1-1 4-1
E2 1011 2011-01-01 Swindon Bournemouth 1-1 1-2
E2 1011 2011-01-01 Brentford Dag and Red 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2010-12-29 Brighton Charlton 1-1 1-1
E2 1011 2010-12-28 Plymouth Notts County 1-1 1-1
E2 1011 2010-12-18 Exeter Sheffield Weds 1-1 5-1
E2 1011 2010-12-04 Swindon Sheffield Weds 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2010-11-27 Rochdale Oldham 1-1 1-1
E2 1011 2010-11-23 Peterboro Leyton Orient 1-1 2-2
E2 1011 2010-11-20 Plymouth Brentford 1-1 1-2
E2 1011 2010-11-20 Rochdale Swindon 1-1 3-3
E2 1011 2010-11-20 Walsall Carlisle 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2010-11-13 Yeovil Dag and Red 1-1 1-3
E2 1011 2010-11-13 Swindon Colchester 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2010-11-02 Milton Keynes Dons Yeovil 1-1 3-2
E2 1011 2010-10-30 Yeovil Swindon 1-1 3-3
E2 1011 2010-10-30 Oldham Plymouth 1-1 4-2
E2 1011 2010-10-30 Exeter Brentford 1-1 2-4
E2 1011 2010-10-23 Brentford Peterboro 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2010-10-23 Plymouth Huddersfield 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2010-10-23 Southampton Oldham 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2010-10-09 Plymouth Charlton 1-1 2-2
E2 1011 2010-10-09 Brentford Oldham 1-1 1-3
E2 1011 2010-09-28 Colchester Dag and Red 1-1 2-2
E2 1011 2010-09-25 Peterboro Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2010-09-25 Hartlepool Walsall 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2010-09-25 Charlton Dag and Red 1-1 2-2
E2 1011 2010-09-25 Brighton Oldham 1-1 2-1
E2 1011 2010-09-18 Milton Keynes Dons Rochdale 1-1 1-1
E2 1011 2010-09-18 Plymouth Sheffield Weds 1-1 3-2
E2 1011 2010-09-04 Oldham Bristol Rvs 1-1 1-1
E2 1011 2010-09-04 Huddersfield Bournemouth 1-1 2-2
E2 1011 2010-08-28 Brentford Rochdale 1-1 1-3
E2 1011 2010-08-21 Charlton Oldham 1-1 1-1
E2 1011 2010-08-21 Exeter Bristol Rvs 1-1 2-2
E2 1011 2010-08-21 Southampton Leyton Orient 1-1 1-1
E2 1011 2010-08-21 Swindon Brentford 1-1 1-1
E2 1011 2010-08-14 Brentford Walsall 1-1 1-2
E2 0910 2010-05-08 Exeter Huddersfield 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2010-05-08 Millwall Swindon 1-1 3-2
E2 0910 2010-05-01 Carlisle Walsall 1-1 1-1
E2 0910 2010-04-24 Southampton Carlisle 1-1 3-2
E2 0910 2010-04-24 Colchester Tranmere 1-1 1-1
E2 0910 2010-04-24 Brighton Bristol Rvs 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2010-04-17 Milton Keynes Dons Wycombe 1-1 2-3
E2 0910 2010-04-13 Carlisle Leeds 1-1 1-3
E2 0910 2010-04-10 Walsall Tranmere 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2010-04-05 Southampton Leyton Orient 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2010-04-01 Brighton Southampton 1-1 2-2
E2 0910 2010-03-30 Oldham Brentford 1-1 2-3
E2 0910 2010-03-13 Oldham Wycombe 1-1 2-2
E2 0910 2010-03-13 Brentford Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 3-3
E2 0910 2010-03-06 Tranmere Southampton 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2010-02-27 Bristol Rvs Colchester 1-1 3-2
E2 0910 2010-02-20 Walsall Brentford 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2010-02-06 Stockport Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 1-3
E2 0910 2010-02-06 Millwall Norwich 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2010-02-02 Walsall Charlton 1-1 1-1
E2 0910 2009-12-28 Stockport Leeds 1-1 2-4
E2 0910 2009-12-19 Wycombe Oldham 1-1 2-2
E2 0910 2009-12-19 Swindon Brighton 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2009-12-01 Huddersfield Tranmere 1-1 3-3
E2 0910 2009-12-01 Carlisle Hartlepool 1-1 3-2
E2 0910 2009-11-24 Swindon Huddersfield 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2009-11-24 Hartlepool Southampton 1-1 1-3
E2 0910 2009-11-21 Leyton Orient Tranmere 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2009-11-21 Bristol Rvs Gillingham 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2009-11-20 Southend Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2009-11-14 Bristol Rvs Carlisle 1-1 3-2
E2 0910 2009-10-31 Carlisle Charlton 1-1 3-1
E2 0910 2009-10-24 Carlisle Southend 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2009-10-24 Colchester Walsall 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2009-10-24 Millwall Leeds 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2009-10-19 Leeds Norwich 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2009-10-17 Leyton Orient Brentford 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2009-10-17 Charlton Huddersfield 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2009-10-03 Walsall Carlisle 1-1 2-2
E2 0910 2009-10-03 Exeter Hartlepool 1-1 3-1
E2 0910 2009-09-29 Southampton Bristol Rvs 1-1 2-3
E2 0910 2009-09-26 Tranmere Colchester 1-1 1-1
E2 0910 2009-09-12 Tranmere Walsall 1-1 2-3
E2 0910 2009-09-12 Swindon Colchester 1-1 1-1
E2 0910 2009-08-29 Wycombe Bristol Rvs 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2009-08-29 Huddersfield Yeovil 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2009-08-22 Brighton Stockport 1-1 2-4
E2 0910 2009-08-18 Wycombe Southend 1-1 1-1
E2 0910 2009-08-18 Stockport Carlisle 1-1 1-2
E2 0910 2009-08-18 Colchester Gillingham 1-1 2-1
E2 0910 2009-08-15 Tranmere Gillingham 1-1 4-2
E2 0910 2009-08-15 Leyton Orient Oldham 1-1 1-2
E2 0910 2009-08-08 Carlisle Brentford 1-1 1-3
E2 0910 2009-08-08 Bristol Rvs Leyton Orient 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2009-05-02 Walsall Oldham 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2009-04-25 Swindon Bristol Rvs 1-1 2-1
E2 0809 2009-04-25 Huddersfield Brighton 1-1 2-2
E2 0809 2009-04-24 Stockport Crewe 1-1 4-3
E2 0809 2009-04-21 Northampton Scunthorpe 1-1 3-3
E2 0809 2009-04-21 Bristol Rvs Brighton 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2009-04-13 Hartlepool Scunthorpe 1-1 2-3
E2 0809 2009-04-11 Leyton Orient Colchester 1-1 2-1
E2 0809 2009-04-11 Hereford Leicester 1-1 1-3
E2 0809 2009-04-10 Scunthorpe Huddersfield 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2009-04-04 Oldham Peterboro 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2009-03-28 Carlisle Northampton 1-1 1-1
E2 0809 2009-03-14 Tranmere Huddersfield 1-1 3-1
E2 0809 2009-03-10 Brighton Southend 1-1 1-3
E2 0809 2009-03-07 Bristol Rvs Leeds 1-1 2-2
E2 0809 2009-03-07 Hartlepool Peterboro 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2009-03-07 Leyton Orient Brighton 1-1 2-1
E2 0809 2009-03-07 Swindon Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 1-1
E2 0809 2009-03-03 Swindon Cheltenham 1-1 2-2
E2 0809 2009-03-03 Leicester Stockport 1-1 1-1
E2 0809 2009-03-03 Crewe Carlisle 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2009-02-28 Carlisle Bristol Rvs 1-1 1-1
E2 0809 2009-02-28 Milton Keynes Dons Leicester 1-1 2-2
E2 0809 2009-02-28 Peterboro Southend 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2009-02-21 Crewe Huddersfield 1-1 3-1
E2 0809 2009-02-17 Tranmere Peterboro 1-1 1-1
E2 0809 2009-02-17 Hartlepool Leicester 1-1 2-2
E2 0809 2009-02-14 Milton Keynes Dons Hartlepool 1-1 3-1
E2 0809 2009-02-14 Cheltenham Hereford 1-1 2-3
E2 0809 2009-02-07 Hartlepool Walsall 1-1 2-2
E2 0809 2009-02-03 Huddersfield Hartlepool 1-1 1-1
E2 0809 2009-01-31 Northampton Leicester 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2009-01-27 Milton Keynes Dons Leyton Orient 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2009-01-27 Bristol Rvs Cheltenham 1-1 3-2
E2 0809 2009-01-24 Leicester Huddersfield 1-1 4-2
E2 0809 2008-12-28 Millwall Yeovil 1-1 1-1
E2 0809 2008-12-28 Stockport Leeds 1-1 1-3
E2 0809 2008-12-26 Hereford Tranmere 1-1 2-2
E2 0809 2008-12-26 Bristol Rvs Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2008-12-26 Brighton Colchester 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2008-12-13 Leeds Colchester 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2008-12-13 Leyton Orient Cheltenham 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2008-12-13 Walsall Millwall 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2008-12-12 Brighton Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 2-4
E2 0809 2008-12-06 Tranmere Leeds 1-1 2-1
E2 0809 2008-12-06 Oldham Brighton 1-1 1-1
E2 0809 2008-12-06 Northampton Leyton Orient 1-1 1-1
E2 0809 2008-11-25 Hartlepool Bristol Rvs 1-1 1-1
E2 0809 2008-11-25 Leicester Crewe 1-1 2-1
E2 0809 2008-11-25 Swindon Peterboro 1-1 2-2
E2 0809 2008-11-22 Scunthorpe Leicester 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2008-11-22 Leeds Hartlepool 1-1 4-1
E2 0809 2008-11-22 Bristol Rvs Swindon 1-1 2-2
E2 0809 2008-11-01 Scunthorpe Swindon 1-1 3-3
E2 0809 2008-10-25 Milton Keynes Dons Cheltenham 1-1 3-1
E2 0809 2008-10-21 Leicester Walsall 1-1 2-2
E2 0809 2008-10-18 Stockport Colchester 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2008-10-18 Millwall Leeds 1-1 3-1
E2 0809 2008-10-18 Carlisle Peterboro 1-1 3-3
E2 0809 2008-10-11 Milton Keynes Dons Carlisle 1-1 3-1
E2 0809 2008-09-20 Huddersfield Northampton 1-1 3-2
E2 0809 2008-09-20 Leyton Orient Leicester 1-1 1-3
E2 0809 2008-09-13 Huddersfield Tranmere 1-1 1-2
E2 0809 2008-09-13 Northampton Peterboro 1-1 1-1
E2 0809 2008-09-13 Swindon Leeds 1-1 1-3
E2 0809 2008-08-30 Walsall Southend 1-1 5-2
E2 0809 2008-08-30 Carlisle Yeovil 1-1 4-1
E2 0809 2008-08-30 Millwall Huddersfield 1-1 2-1
E2 0809 2008-08-16 Walsall Scunthorpe 1-1 2-1
E2 0809 2008-08-09 Huddersfield Stockport 1-1 1-1



if you look above we have a sample of games that were 1-1 HT in league 1 < and you can see that there is no draw bias < in contrast the early home and 1-1 HT league 1 and you will see strong draw bias which the betting industry algorithm will not factor in

[jonnyg]

as a basic summary > if you have built a " LAYING THE DRAW MODEL " IN play < you should consider how the time of the opening goal in an individual league effects expectation of a draw ....