Betfair chart / Betfair graph of the day

[gstar1975]

Heavily backed favourite losses, it shifted the market 15%, in a handicap! Massive drifter wins.

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Paris Protocol_10082804_16_31_13.png

The Tartan Spartan_11102977_16_31_17.png

This maybe a stupid question:

When you say "it shifted the market 15%", do you mean the price moved in 15% (which can't be right), or the implied chance shifted 15%?

or something else?

[Euler]

The IP of the horse shifted 15%, the market felt in the last ten minutes that this horse was 15% better than before

[gstar1975]

Very generalised graph shapes of the favourites between 1.5 - 2.8 (5mins to post) this week

How can I implement this info into a profitable strategy when looking at the chart at the 5 minute mark? How can you anticipate what will happen with the info at 5mins out? ($64,000 ?)

In Hindsight:
16 reverted/or went nowhere
8 drifted
6 steamed

[Korattt]

Very generalised graph shapes of the favourites between 1.5 - 2.8 (5mins to post) this week

could I ask where & how did you manage to get such info?

[gstar1975]

Heavily backed favourite losses, it shifted the market 15%, in a handicap! Massive drifter wins.

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Paris Protocol_10082804_16_31_13.png

The Tartan Spartan_11102977_16_31_17.png

But it moved from 5.5 into 2.5 so this was a shift of 21.82% in the market

100/5.5 = 18.18%
100/2.5 = 40%

40-18.18= 21.82% shift


but you are saying it moved from 4.0 into 2.5 (15% shift) correct?

[Euler]

I'm basing it on the tissue price

[Euler]

Somebody thought this was value at 2.10 or near 50% IP, eventually reached 10% IP and finished 2nd.

Actress_12723106_13_40_15.png

[ruthlessimon]

How can I implement this info into a profitable strategy when looking at the chart at the 5 minute mark? How can you anticipate what will happen with the info at 5mins out? ($64,000 ?)

In Hindsight:
16 reverted/or went nowhere
8 drifted
6 steamed

The million dollar question! & if I truly knew the answer I’d have a Monaco apartment by now For a start, it puts into context Peter’s latest video. It’s not quite as easy to capture these huge movers.

Last week I would deem only 2 markets to fulfil the criteria of his video. Also because they are rare - when they do come along - we more than likely aren’t prepared & mess em up!

[ruthlessimon]

could I ask where & how did you manage to get such info?

Most evenings 'I try' to rewatch the races & make some general notes as to how the runners moved, & what I think the precursors were

[Euler]

Really big moves are the exception, not the norm. But they do occur regularly given certain conditions. You can eliminate roughly 50% of races almost immediately if you are looking for a big move.

Big moves are much more likely at this time of the year.

[ruthlessimon]

1.75 into 1.35. but drifted initially, nasty one!

[Korattt]

1.75 into 1.35. but drifted initially, nasty one!

yep, got shafted yet again

[ruthlessimon]

not quite to scale, but today's liveshow shorties. An advert to avoid chasing the market!

[Euler]

I was browsing my archives when I found this from May 2008. You think some of the stuff you see today is odd!

080513 - weird fav movement Glghs.png

[Korattt]

In this case you could have traded either and seen confirmation from the other that it wasn't going to reverse.

IMG_1053.JPG

apologies for not knowing, & also for dragging up an old post but I'm struggling to understand what I'm looking for with regards 'confirmation' from one to the other?, pm me if needs be if anyone cares to want to explain?