Lay to Back inrunning trades. Races of 9 furlongs or longer only (the last 3 days all are anyway).
Today's Horse Racing
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2097
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
I'm not one for stagnation. We've all gotta be working & improving on our edges 24/7 isn't that right? Or they'll be stolen from under our noses by Mr. Lightwing?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:59 pmIf your handicaps were profitable why did you ditch them? ie why were you looking at the loses without looking at the bottom line.
Euler: "So I then developed a strategy that didn't trade at random and noted where the big losses came from. I then started working on striking them out."
(basically, I took that statement literally - maybe I could blame curse of knowledge )
But what I found was that by fiddling around (incorrectly), & trying to improve, can irreparably damage a strategy (either by lack of trades as the edge improves, or lack of scale, or both) - to the point where the time would've been better spend in the sun! Just how does one know the true limits to a strategy? - massive question that one
Someone like Crazyskier is the perfect example (along with me). Just why can't he solve those scalability problems, & become a top top trader? & when he does try to solve those problems, the edge completely erodes.
I'm very much pro (pre-trade) psychology (i.e. hours prior - analysing data, survivorship bias) - but what you'll find is there's nothing on how to protect yourself from these data biases.
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
I find handicaps very easy to trade usually... but weak class 5/6 where favs are 5+ i just do not bother trading.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:40 pmNp I remember a while back looking at just my losing races, & noticed a huge proportion came from Hcaps. So I decided to not trade Hcaps; seemed logical. What I noticed was that my results actually got worse. What I failed to see was that the majority of my winners were coming from handicaps (my trade frequency tanked massively) - massive survivorship bias that one.
Yeah can be done if you share the vid (vid description).
Maybe check your results see if the class of the handicap and if the average price of fav makes a difference.
Those race types of mention will sometimes struggle to get 400k matched before the off. Just a waste of time.
The issue is really the sheer number of horses in training. When planning the racing calendar they have to provide enough fixtures to accommodate the horses, which is why we have so many meetings. I remember back in the early eighty's when we had just two six race cards most weekdays.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:10 pmIt helps the racecourses, if only 3 per day were allowed to put meetings on, when would they get any paying public through the gate and when would the racecouese staff earn a wage? It's only an issue anyway if you want to watch everything, exclude the rubbish and you're lucky if there's a half decent race every 20mins.
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
In order to sort racing to from every level it has to start from the bottom up. There are practically no regulations on breeding. There are a lot of mares out their who can barely get on a walker, who can’t even be saddled which are being bred.
It wouldn’t be acceptable for two humans who cannot even feed themselves to have children and it’s the same in racing. There are too many poor horses.
Most horses who can’t win a race are a result of poor beeeding. If they changed this it would stop the override of too many races imo.
It’s the 21st century and it’s amazing how so many things have changed, but so many things haven’t. Just like schools and prisons with a few exceptions we’re still doing the same things we did 100s of years ago.
It wouldn’t be acceptable for two humans who cannot even feed themselves to have children and it’s the same in racing. There are too many poor horses.
Most horses who can’t win a race are a result of poor beeeding. If they changed this it would stop the override of too many races imo.
It’s the 21st century and it’s amazing how so many things have changed, but so many things haven’t. Just like schools and prisons with a few exceptions we’re still doing the same things we did 100s of years ago.
MOAN MOAN MOAN...............
Just a random moan, yesterday there were too many races with too little time between them. Today there are too few races with the wrong time between them. Net result I've got too much time to do anything other than make too much coffee and try to think up something else to moan about - still scraping paint and I hate it. Next big thrill is repainting an' I don't like that much either. Thank god for automatic washing machines and rain. It's p*ssing down hre so I won't have to hang up the washing or worry about the gardening.
[MOANING PAUSED]
Just a random moan, yesterday there were too many races with too little time between them. Today there are too few races with the wrong time between them. Net result I've got too much time to do anything other than make too much coffee and try to think up something else to moan about - still scraping paint and I hate it. Next big thrill is repainting an' I don't like that much either. Thank god for automatic washing machines and rain. It's p*ssing down hre so I won't have to hang up the washing or worry about the gardening.
[MOANING PAUSED]
rant corner’s over there..mobius wrote: ↑Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:41 pmMOAN MOAN MOAN...............
Just a random moan, yesterday there were too many races with too little time between them. Today there are too few races with the wrong time between them. Net result I've got too much time to do anything other than make too much coffee and try to think up something else to moan about - still scraping paint and I hate it. Next big thrill is repainting an' I don't like that much either. Thank god for automatic washing machines and rain. It's p*ssing down hre so I won't have to hang up the washing or worry about the gardening.
[MOANING PAUSED]
It's not a rant - it's a MOAN. There is a difference. I've bought an electric paint scraper, makes scraping easier, downside it makes using a keyboard/mouse lethal - ten minutes using that thing could cost me more than the house is worth. Oh ye of non-existent sympathy - what's the phone number for the samaritans?
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- Posts: 124
- Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:26 pm
mobius wrote: ↑Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:41 pmMOAN MOAN MOAN...............
Just a random moan, yesterday there were too many races with too little time between them. Today there are too few races with the wrong time between them. Net result I've got too much time to do anything other than make too much coffee and try to think up something else to moan about - still scraping paint and I hate it. Next big thrill is repainting an' I don't like that much either. Thank god for automatic washing machines and rain. It's p*ssing down hre so I won't have to hang up the washing or worry about the gardening.
[MOANING PAUSED]
There are/were only 5 races on today suitable for my trading methods so I've been getting stuck into a pile of ironing that needed doing. I've had 4 of my 5 races already so there's nothing else for me now until the Doncaster 5:10pm. Tomorrow will be thin pickings for me too.
The worst horses will always struggle to win races. If the standard of horses improve, the worst horses would get better but they would still be the worst horses - some horses have to be the worst. So nothing would change!SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:30 amMost horses who can’t win a race are a result of poor beeeding. If they changed this it would stop the override of too many races imo.
Perhaps we should have a moaning room, to compliment the rant corner.mobius wrote: ↑Sun Jun 17, 2018 3:54 pmIt's not a rant - it's a MOAN. There is a difference. I've bought an electric paint scraper, makes scraping easier, downside it makes using a keyboard/mouse lethal - ten minutes using that thing could cost me more than the house is worth. Oh ye of non-existent sympathy - what's the phone number for the samaritans?
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Got a piece of information today guys. Will get it up soon, quite a big price! Will win.