Betfair chart / Betfair graph of the day

[ruthlessimon]

I thought the mantra was that a big volume spike initiates a drift? {search this thread for 'volume spike drift'}
I know there's always an exception that proves every rule, but shouldn't that have been a textbook 2.0 bottom Simon? I guess the argument will be that the spike didn't start a drift so a minute later the steam would continue. Or is that just aftertiming?

That £5000 was front-run, then matched very "gently" - it was "nibbled at" by lots of small traders (£100's, £200's). That still classed as a spike?

That said, I wasn't even looking at volume & if Peter thinks I'm bullshittin', I'll send him why I didn't need it - then he can hopefully explain how these big volume spikes will make my trading even better (although he is dang risk averse when it comes to sharing cold hard instantly tradable knowledge)

[ShaunWhite]

That £5000 was front-run, then matched very "gently" - it was "nibbled at" by lots of small traders (£100's, £200's). That still classed as a spike?

So you could see that as backing money and not a big lay? It can't have been that slow if the volume showed up like that on the BF chart. It looked just like all the other prime examples that get posted...and I don't see much qualification about fillrate/'is it really a spike'/'what direction was it' on those? But I guess that's why a manual trader staring at a ladder has an edge over a statistitian

[ruthlessimon]

So you could see that as backing money and not a big lay? It can't have been that slow if the volume showed up like that on the BF chart. It looked just like all the other prime examples that get posted...and I don't see much qualification about fillrate/'is it really a spike'/'what direction was it' on those? But I guess that's why a manual trader staring at a ladder has an edge over a statistitian

That's right, someone, possibly Peter (cos he rarely uses market orders does he) - wanted a £5k back @ 2.0. Data can't see the £5k - but given that same token - that makes it difficult to "backtest" longterm

But the idea that if that money gets filled, means that £5k trader is instantly wrong is ludicrous to me.

Bceause:

1. He pulls the £5k - labelled as "manipulation" - possible drift
2. He gets filled - labelled as a "lay spike" - possible drift

Doesn't make sense to me - Might as well not use volume if both occurrences = potential drift

Also there was other stuff going on in that market - so perhaps it was an exception (lay spike, steam) - but was overridden due to stronger signals elsewhere.

[Euler]

Manual traders can do a great job of assessing what an order or participant was trying to do, something that doesn't show up in data.

[ShaunWhite]

Manual traders can do a great job of assessing what an order or participant was trying to do, something that doesn't show up in data.

Your comments don't really need a +1.... but in this case... +1.

Stats are a guide, but the more you can see, the less you need a guide....i guess.

[ruthlessimon]

So you could see that as backing money and not a big lay? It can't have been that slow if the volume showed up like that on the BF chart. It looked just like all the other prime examples that get posted...and I don't see much qualification about fillrate/'is it really a spike'/'what direction was it' on those? But I guess that's why a manual trader staring at a ladder has an edge over a statistitian

I didn't notice this live, but exactly the same pattern occurred on the fav (14:50), & this time it did drift - hence why I struggle with vol!

Someone wanted to back it for £10k @2.5, got front run, drags the £10k to 2.4, got front run again - then price returns, gets the £10k filled @ 2.4; market ends 2.7 - 2.8

Clearly we need more info - hence why it probably was shared on the forum. On it's own, used as a long term directional guide, pretty random - or have I been done by recency bias

[ShaunWhite]

hence why I struggle with vol!

Never thought it was much use without a direction. Even then I wonder sometimes if the market students who've been told it signals a move, actually cause the move themselves by chasing. There's only a limit amount of real money being spent on a wet winter Tuesday, most of it is reactive rather than real imo. Take that 5 grand, just some bored footballer sat at home playing with loose change, not much sign of any move afterwards from 'the crowd' piling their wisom on top of that decision. And if they got 2.1 or 2.3 they probably don't give a monkey's either, like most leisure punters, they just want it on because they massively overvalue their own judgement.

[ruthlessimon]

Never thought it was much use without a direction. Even then I wonder sometimes if the market students who've been told it signals a move, actually cause the move themselves by chasing.

Basically, all BA grads need to go back each year for a booster

I have to say though, the people (bots) front running those large orders were super consistent. Certainly potential for a clever trader to exploit that regularity imo (tiny mean-reversion)

(i.e. Or invest in Dublin, get that 1st tick after the order, & exit on the slow bots )

[arbitrage16]

what is 'front running' orders please?

[ruthlessimon]

People trading ahead of large orders

Looks like this ->

[Dallas]

More like Rytham is a 'Drifter'

[Jukebox]

What caused that? It still won.

[invisiblelayer]

What caused that? It still won.

Layers happy to take it on. Looked on a stiff enough opening handicap mark to me having won an egg and spoon race last time out, plenty agreed despite the final outcome

[Dallas]

What caused that? It still won.

Not sure tbh i wasn't trading it, just caught it at the last moment while testing something

[PDC]

Due Reward 1220 Punchestown.png