How do you make over 1k in 1 race?

[Zenyatta]

Hi Zenyatta

How have you gotten on with your new method since your post in June?

Jeff

Didn't work - it was just a flash in a pan. I seem to have gone backwards and suffered catasphoric losses over the last few weeks, confidence is all shot to bits trading wise. I've been swimming with sharks these last 8 months, and you guys have eaten me alive. Might just have to stick to punting.

[Iron]

At least you tried- nothing ventured...

I wouldn't write yourself off just yet though. Why not get back to basics, watch some trading videos, and see if you can find a way forward?

I've been experimenting with something Peter once suggested to me. When I have an open trade, rather than scratching it the second the market goes against me, I'll consider holding fire and waiting for the market to come back to me. If the market is ranging, it's surprising how often it rattles back and forth a bit, and then comes back to me and gives me a green screen!

Jeff

Didn't work - it was just a flash in a pan. I seem to have gone backwards and suffered catasphoric losses over the last few weeks, confidence is all shot to bits trading wise. I've been swimming with sharks these last 8 months, and you guys have eaten me alive. Might just have to stick to punting.

[Iron]

When you're trading a trending market, do you constantly close your trades and open new ones, or do you wait till the trend has gone as far as you think it'll go before greening up?

How many ticks do you normally go for per trade?

Jeff

I just put through 18 round trips on the 14:20. You can put through a lot of trades once you get used to it. It's safer to do that than one big trade carrying all the risk.

I tend to trade most races over a session but there are some races I wont touch, just on the basis I can't see a way in.

[Euler]

If there is a trending market I tend to hop on the trend and exit when it is exhausted, I may add or remove orders depending on my confidence. I.e. I will scale in and out.

[Iron]

Thanks

How do you tell when a trend is over?

I've tried going counter trend when the market rapidly heats up and then retraces sharply, but more often then not the original trend then resumes.

Jeff

If there is a trending market I tend to hop on the trend and exit when it is exhausted, I may add or remove orders depending on my confidence. I.e. I will scale in and out.

[Euler]

Shock horror, I tend to use weight of money to exit.

[Iron]

Yes, very funny!

I just thought you might have some tips as to what specifically to look for.

I remember Adam Heathcote once writing that a change of market direction had a distinctive feel, but he didn't elaborate.

Is there anything that tells you whether the w of m is changing because the market is retracing or stalling, as opposed to it changing because it's about to switch direction?

Jeff

Shock horror, I tend to use weight of money to exit.

[Euler]

Pressure can build at many points but you need some definitive manifestation of that and more often than not you can see that in the WOM. At the end of the day if people stop backing or laying something it has to show in that figure.

[Zenyatta]

At least you tried- nothing ventured...

I wouldn't write yourself off just yet though. Why not get back to basics, watch some trading videos, and see if you can find a way forward?

I've been experimenting with something Peter once suggested to me. When I have an open trade, rather than scratching it the second the market goes against me, I'll consider holding fire and waiting for the market to come back to me. If the market is ranging, it's surprising how often it rattles back and forth a bit, and then comes back to me and gives me a green screen!

Jeff

There comes a point where I have to give up though, because the cost in money, time and sanity is too high. I've made some progress with spreadsheets, so I'm willing to give it another 4 months. Most of my big losses were due to the following: (a) mucking around with Excel trying to get automated strategies and finding it kept doing dumb things I hadn't anticipated. (b) Generic strategies where I was trying to bet on everything. (c) trying to back steamers by blindly following trends when I should have known better.

A tip for all newbies:: NEVER blindly follow a trend. NEVER. EVER.

[mister man]

were you following steamers to trade or as in thats come in from 8s to 4s it must have a good shot at winning and letting bets go in play.??
big difference

[Zenyatta]

were you following steamers to trade or as in thats come in from 8s to 4s it must have a good shot at winning and letting bets go in play.??
big difference

I was trading them, they weren't going in play. Months of experimentation have proved to me that trying to follow steamers is a big losing proposition. By the time a trend has become obvious it is already too late to get on.

[Iron]

Hi Zenyatta

Did you ever try the Betfair equivalent of 'buying in the dips', ie waiting for a retracement and entering there?

I think that trending markets need to recharge their batteries every so often, and if you enter the market as it's coming out of a dip, there's a good chance the trend will continue for a while.

Trend following might be crude, but it allowed a guy called John W Henry to turn $16,000 into enough money to buy Liverpool FC, so there must be something in it!

Jeff

I was trading them, they weren't going in play. Months of experimentation have proved to me that trying to follow steamers is a big losing proposition. By the time a trend has become obvious it is already too late to get on.

[Euler]

were you following steamers to trade or as in thats come in from 8s to 4s it must have a good shot at winning and letting bets go in play.??
big difference

I was trading them, they weren't going in play. Months of experimentation have proved to me that trying to follow steamers is a big losing proposition. By the time a trend has become obvious it is already too late to get on.

The trend is your friend until the end. I've always recommended people oppose trends rather than jump on them. You get a lot of upward momentum as people who joined the trend late are forced to exit so if you can speculatively catch this bounce it can work well and sometimes it can work wonderfully.

If something is at 2.00 and it contracts to 1.70, my view is that it is harder and harder for it to shorten. It's not going to go off at 1.01 so there has to be a point at which is stops getting shorter. So I will often look for steamers and oppose them. Doesn't work every time but when they do work they can work really well.

[Iron]

Do you take the same approach with drifters?

Jeff

If something is at 2.00 and it contracts to 1.70, my view is that it is harder and harder for it to shorten. It's not going to go off at 1.01 so there has to be a point at which is stops getting shorter. So I will often look for steamers and oppose them. Doesn't work every time but when they do work they can work really well.

[Euler]

I'm happy opposing in either direction. You tend to get a low strike rate when doing this, but high win values when it comes off. Every trend has a tendancy to exhaust at some point on a sports market.