Today's Horse Racing
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2161
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
To me, the 15:35 just gone was the exact same type of pattern. It looked like a very very strong fav, but in a flash dries up & drifts (a fair ol' reversal that, eventually). But I don't think that pattern existed a yr ago - defo not a drift to that extentShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:50 amIt bounced off evens. (actually bounced off 2.04 but 49% is near enough to call it evens)BeastofBrine wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:00 amIt drifted from below 2, then traded in a range above that, where the large stakes seemed to push it around. I'm not sure of the action in the final seconds before the market went in-play, as I had a phone call.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2019 6:43 pm
Out of interest, can you remember the result of the move? Was it a slight drift (late-on)?
Edit: At least I thought came from below 2 - looking at the trades I made, I may be misremembering. It's incredible how the memory of an event bleeds away in such a short space of time. I really need to get into the habit of recording my trading...
-5min to Scheduled start.
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- Posts: 40
- Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:32 pm
I'm sorry I had to miss it - I'd have liked to study it. I had a look at my notes, and the 17.10 at Tipperary on Sunday looks to have been similar too.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2019 3:48 pmTo me, the 15:35 just gone was the exact same type of pattern. It looked like a very very strong fav, but in a flash dries up & drifts (a fair ol' reversal that, eventually). But I don't think that pattern existed a yr ago - defo not a drift to that extentShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:50 amIt bounced off evens. (actually bounced off 2.04 but 49% is near enough to call it evens)BeastofBrine wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2019 12:00 amIt drifted from below 2, then traded in a range above that, where the large stakes seemed to push it around. I'm not sure of the action in the final seconds before the market went in-play, as I had a phone call.
Edit: At least I thought came from below 2 - looking at the trades I made, I may be misremembering. It's incredible how the memory of an event bleeds away in such a short space of time. I really need to get into the habit of recording my trading...
-5min to Scheduled start.
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- Posts: 40
- Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:32 pm
I'm interested to see if the 17:20 at Galway ends up being the same.
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2161
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Got absolutely hammered in, but it brings up 2 interesting pointsBeastofBrine wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2019 4:53 pmI'm interested to see if the 17:20 at Galway ends up being the same.
1. Recency bias. Personally I don't think that move was "normal" - I wish it was though, cos trading would be super easy

2. IE vs UK. Now I've got a real quandary about whether biases can be "completely" transferred between regions. I do kinda agree with: "if the Uk strategy is correct, then there's no reason it shouldn't work on IE". But I can think of a couple of examples where this isn't true, & slight modifications have to be made (to make it "worth while"). But does modifying imply a "weak strategy", possibly - albeit IE has a lower sample of markets
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- Posts: 40
- Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:32 pm
Yes, it was a nice market. The 17:40 at Chelmsford was more in line with what we've been talking about - ranging about above 2.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2019 5:50 pmGot absolutely hammered in, but it brings up 2 interesting pointsBeastofBrine wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2019 4:53 pmI'm interested to see if the 17:20 at Galway ends up being the same.
1. Recency bias. Personally I don't think that move was "normal" - I wish it was though, cos trading would be super easy![]()
2. IE vs UK. Now I've got a real quandary about whether biases can be "completely" transferred between regions. I do kinda agree with: "if the Uk strategy is correct, then there's no reason it shouldn't work on IE". But I can think of a couple of examples where this isn't true, & slight modifications have to be made (to make it "worth while"). But does modifying imply a "weak strategy", possibly - albeit IE has a lower sample of markets
I suspect that recency bias is playing its part in making these markets seem a little strange to me (after all the huge doses of money that were hitting the markets until not too long ago, with the attendant moves), but I'll admit it’s the potential that I’m trading whilst high on confirmation bias and Dunning-Kruger that has me concerned.