Loss to Profit and How?

[ShaunWhite]

Actually I might go for under 3.5 goals and put the profit on 1-3 but that seems to more of a role of gambling instead of trading.

Well don't do it then.

But...
if you back <3.5 and the game has no action, where do you think the price of <3.5 will be at say 30min?
If you back <3.5 and the game has 2 goals in 5 mins, where do you think the price of <3.5 will be at 30min?
Soccer Mystic will help you to get a good idea of those.

Next, How much profit or loss will you be looking at in each case....write that down (A).
(what actually happens will probably be in the range somewhere)

Next, How often are you right when you make a guess? 10% ..50%..90% of the time? Write that down (B).

So, the question you have to ask yourself is ...."Will I make enough money when I am right, to cover losses I make when I'm wrong?"
This is the most important question to ask yourself, in fact it's the ONLY question.

Now think very long and hard (that might even be several hours or days) about how answer A and answer B will help you find that answer.
It's a mindset not just a formula, so taking a few days to fully absorb this concept is no big deal, man up and do it, we all had to.
Trading will take you at least a year to master so a few days is nothing.

You can trade one league, watch TV, use a crystal ball.......anything you want. But without understanding risk/reward you will fail whatever method you choose.

Finally...when you see a great trader making a great trade, it's like watching Tiger Woods sink a putt on the 18th hole to win the Masters. What you don't see is the years of sweat, practice, study etc etc that's made him that good. So if you rock up waving your little putter around, guess what's going to happen?

[JustLukeYou]

Actually I might go for under 3.5 goals and put the profit on 1-3 but that seems to more of a role of gambling instead of trading.

Well don't do it then.

But...
if you back <3.5 and the game has no action, where do you think the price of <3.5 will be at say 30min?
If you back <3.5 and the game has 2 goals in 5 mins, where do you think the price of <3.5 will be at 30min?
Soccer Mystic will help you to get a good idea of those.

Next, How much profit or loss will you be looking at in each case....write that down (A).
(what actually happens will probably be in the range somewhere)

Next, How often are you right when you make a guess? 10% ..50%..90% of the time? Write that down (B).

So, the question you have to ask yourself is ...."Will I make enough money when I am right, to cover losses I make when I'm wrong?"
This is the most important question to ask yourself, in fact it's the ONLY question.

Now think very long and hard (that might even be several hours or days) about how answer A and answer B will help you find that answer.
It's a mindset not just a formula, so taking a few days to fully absorb this concept is no big deal, man up and do it, we all had to.
Trading will take you at least a year to master so a few days is nothing.

You can trade one league, watch TV, use a crystal ball.......anything you want. But without understanding risk/reward you will fail whatever method you choose.

Finally...when you see a great trader making a great trade, it's like watching Tiger Woods sink a putt on the 18th hole to win the Masters. What you don't see is the years of sweat, practice, study etc etc that's made him that good. So if you rock up waving your little putter around, guess what's going to happen?

The issue surrounding value that is what I am trying to focus on. I saw odds of 6.0 for both teams to score. The team that hadn't scored were attacking well. I backed it and they scored quite soon after. The same with with the Brazil match. I looked at their recent form which was poor but they were 4th in the league and due a win. The were also attacking throughout the match. I backed it at 2.6 and that won. I seem to have some ability but I think I also need to stop backing multiple correct scores. Sometimes I back 6 and end up breaking even. Bit of a waste of time and more like gambling than trading.

[ShaunWhite]

Stick to one market not o/u and correct scores, and understand how that market moves. Add more markets as you gain experience.

You talk a lot about opening your position (in your case usually backing) but you don't mention the other 50% of trading, ie closing your position. Don't just keep backing more and more outcomes and increasing your worst case liability.

[ShaunWhite]

Talking of waste of time..... Are you going to go through the exercise I described in great detail, in great detail?

[JustLukeYou]

Talking of waste of time..... Are you going to go through the exercise I described in great detail, in great detail?

With this scenario I can't do any quality research. With league matches I look at the stats a lot more so it is hard to really assess the value and to do it accurately. I am just going by gut instinct with tonight's match.

I think what I need to do is to eliminate the trades that rarely yield a profit. In terms of exiting I do find that difficult. For example, on Saturday I backed both teams to win 2-1 because I was almost sure that either team would and both would score. I traded out at 0-0 but low and behold one team won 2-1.

[Jukebox]

Its worth remembering that those with Savant Syndrome generally have a neurodevelopmental disorder of some kind.

[JustLukeYou]

Its worth remembering that those with Savant Syndrome generally have a neurodevelopmental disorder of some kind.

In relation to this thread how did you start off trading? What steps did you take and what would you do differently?

[ShaunWhite]

Talking of waste of time..... Are you going to go through the exercise I described in great detail, in great detail?

With this scenario I can't do any quality research. With league matches I look at the stats a lot more so it is hard to really assess the value and to do it accurately.

Well your decision should be to not get involved in this game. This will be a test of if you could be a trader or if you are going to remain a failed gambler.

Btw At NO point did I mention value. I described the fundamentals of how to make money, long term. Are you going to do what I suggested, or should I spend my time on someone who actually wants to make money?

[JustLukeYou]

Yeah I am not really concerned tbh. It's only 50p. I certainly wouldn't do it with serious money. It's more of a test whether I can predict a score accurately. It's a match I am taking seriously.

[Kafkaesque]

The absolute state of this thread! Fair play to those remaining patient. For my part it reminded me a bit of this classic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZw35VUBdzo

[Derek27]

Can't believe this has gone on for another two pages!

My advice is to forget about trading strategies altogether until you're able to answer this question:

If you place a £10 back bet at 3.0, how much do you lay at 2.6 to green up?

Whether you're good at maths or not, use software or the Betfair website, this is one of the very very basics of trading and one of the first things you need to learn.

[JustLukeYou]

At the moment I am trying weave through some contradictions. For example, I have been reading Caan Berrys book this afternoon which is well written. He says there is little point researching an event because everyone else has the same information and the bookies probably have more information which makes complete sense. However, in the SportsTradingLife guide he says that is very important to do research.

It was 2-0 to Ukraine at half time. I looked on SofaScore and all the taken was being made by France so I was confident France would score and they did.

I'm struggling to understand how Caan Berry's approach of not looking at stats would identify whether backing or laying Ukraine offers any value either way.

[Derek27]

It's really very simple: Berry has one opinion, SportsTradingLife has another. What don't you understand?

[JustLukeYou]

It's really very simple: Berry has one opinion, SportsTradingLife has another. What don't you understand?

The problem is no way can explain how Barry is finding value.

[SusanC]

I am in awe: you have the patience of saints casting pearls before swine.