Where Am I Specifically Going Wrong With This Please?

[JustLukeYou]

have you seen how much competition there is on Amazon?

Unfortunately you've chosen an alternative business that's probably even more competitive. I've told you that approx 5% of new traders eventually make a long term profit so I was wondering what price you estimate your own chances to be, how long it will take and what it will cost you?

I know you've called me a naysayer for being pessimistic about your chances but I've seen a lot of people start over the years. The ones who make it are the ones who are natural problem solvers, the sort who will take one sentance or comment and not sleep (proverbially) until they have understood every word and all the meanings between the words too. Do you feel like you're that sort of person?

As for a business with a level playing field, then I think your lack of knowledge about the industry is making you underestimate the calibre of the competition. Trading isn't just a bunch of people watching telly and having a hunch about a result and the link below shows you what you're up against. People like these are included in that 5% who make it too. I'm not saying everyone has to commit to that extent but it's an indication of how complex trading is at the highest level and competition for a slice of the market is brutal. https://www.indeed.co.uk/cmp/Bettor-Believe/jobs

What the key reasons why people fail? Also just because it is competitive I don't understand how that influences how successful an individual person is. Running an ecommerce business is all about supply, demand and profit margin which is heavily influenced by the competition. How does the competition influence how much a trader makes?

[Derek27]

Just popped out for something to eat and my shopping - two pages to catch up on.

[Derek27]

I was sure there would be 2 or more goals in the first half but just didn't back it and there was 2 goals at great odds of 4.

Why didn't you back it if you were sure of it??

Everybody on this forum knows the answer to that question except you! If you can't figure it out you may as well give up, as you will continue going round in circles.

Probably looking at to many games.

Brilliant!!!

Now that you know why, it's not going to happen again so you won't need to post ever again: "the score was 1-0, I knew they were going to get another goal - why didn't I back it?"

[Derek27]

Just watching Sassuolo v Inter Milan. Inter Milan were all over them like a rash and you tell they would score. Just scored a penalty but the odds were around 1.9 for another goal to be scored. Just not placing trades when I see them.

Looks like I was wrong about that, it took just 3 minutes!

[JustLukeYou]

Yes, there is a key thing that Paulo Rebelo said that as I think more about it makes complete sense and that is to focus on specific teams. Take Juventus, Barcelona and Bayern Munich this weekend. All typical, quite predictable results.

[Derek27]

Does anyone have a 'process' for backing or laying what they believe in will happen. Before the current Real Sociedad matched kicked off I went through the form and you can see that Sociedad score almost all their goals in the second half and Betis conceded most of their goals in the second half. Betis got a lucky goal early on and the odds for Sociedad shot up to 3 despite the form of scoring plenty of goals in the second half so I backed it and traded it out for 120% profit after going 2-1 up. But there are more odds like this that I haven't backed that have won than odds that I have backed.

I don't think you understand the difference between trading and gambling and you keep switching from one to the other, which only causes more confusion.

[Dallas]

Yes, if you know what you are doing, but if you can't trade one, why will trading two help?

Decay is something that's reasonably easy to learn about. The fact it didn't decay enough was nothing to do with the market, it was to do with the fact you were guessing rather than knowing how the price would move and how quickly. If you're making so much use of the BA forum I can only assume you're a BA subscriber, so take a look at SoccerMystic as previously suggested, it will show you, in real time, what you possible PL is at anytime and for any time goals might be scored. I don't know why you're not using it, it tells you, you're guessing.

If you're struggling to grasp what Shaun said here and back on Page 11 of this thread (and what several other users have repeatably told you) try and spare 5 minutes to read and absorb the following posts, it even includes many images so like Shaun's post I don't think it can be any clearer of how a trader should be thinking and were to find opportunities - and how the likes Rebelo on are thinking throughout a game.
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=12116

If you have the gift for spotting when goals are about to be scored as you say you do you should make a fortune and lose very little if anything when your wrong

Hi Dallas, so I read through this guide and also watched this BetAngel video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJ_cz66b1_A

Do you have any examples of how this is precisely used. For example, if the odds of over 2.5 goals are currently 1.5 and 20 minutes later the odds are 1.8 I'm not sure how they will truly influence when you trade out. If you make a profit of 30 ticks every 2 games you still going to lose money overall. How does knowing the future odds really influence whether you trade out or not, surely that is down to whether a goal has or hasn't been scored?

After all the posts/questions you've asked I'm surprised you have asked this.

Before opening ANY trade you should know the reason why and what you will do if your reason/s doesn't materialise.
Knowing how and where the odds will move during this is an essential part of this if you're to understand the risk/reward you're taking on.

You don't seriously think traders including Rebelo would just randomly open a trade based on 'I think a goal is coming'
That might be all you see in a video but as many people have told you already behind opening a trade a lot of additional thought has gone into it and a big part of that is knowing how the odds will move over the time you intend to have an open position and the scenarios that could occur and how each will affect the price - which is directly connected to your P/L, without that you have no idea of the risk/reward your taking on.

That thread I linked to has a few examples and shows how by Framing' your trade within a window and knowing your up and downside you can position yourself favourably.

There is not much more I can add to that really until your line of thinking shifts dramatically and you move away from your current course of randomly backing (and basically gambling) when you think something may happen with no thought to anything else

[Derek27]

If I backed the trades that I saw I wouldn't be asking so many questions because my profit would be much higher.

Just back the trades you see then.

[JustLukeYou]

If you're struggling to grasp what Shaun said here and back on Page 11 of this thread (and what several other users have repeatably told you) try and spare 5 minutes to read and absorb the following posts, it even includes many images so like Shaun's post I don't think it can be any clearer of how a trader should be thinking and were to find opportunities - and how the likes Rebelo on are thinking throughout a game.
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=12116

If you have the gift for spotting when goals are about to be scored as you say you do you should make a fortune and lose very little if anything when your wrong

Hi Dallas, so I read through this guide and also watched this BetAngel video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJ_cz66b1_A

Do you have any examples of how this is precisely used. For example, if the odds of over 2.5 goals are currently 1.5 and 20 minutes later the odds are 1.8 I'm not sure how they will truly influence when you trade out. If you make a profit of 30 ticks every 2 games you still going to lose money overall. How does knowing the future odds really influence whether you trade out or not, surely that is down to whether a goal has or hasn't been scored?

After all the posts/questions you've asked I'm surprised you have asked this.

Before opening ANY trade you should know the reason why and what you will do if your reason/s doesn't materialise.
Knowing how and where the odds will move during this is an essential part of this if you're to understand the risk/reward you're taking on.

You don't seriously think traders including Rebelo would just randomly open a trade based on 'I think a goal is coming'
That might be all you see in a video but as many people have told you already behind opening a trade a lot of additional thought has gone into it and a big part of that is knowing how the odds will move over the time you intend to have an open position and the scenarios that could occur and how each will affect the price - which is directly connected to your P/L, without that you have no idea of the risk/reward your taking on.

That thread I linked to has a few examples and shows how by Framing' your trade within a window and knowing your up and downside you can position yourself favourably.

There is not much more I can add to that really until your line of thinking shifts dramatically and you move away from your current course of randomly backing (and basically gambling) when you think something may happen with no thought to anything else

How is it linked to the profit and loss?

[JustLukeYou]

If I backed the trades that I saw I wouldn't be asking so many questions because my profit would be much higher.

Just back the trades you see then.

I have tried to start doing that, did that Real Sociedad when they were 1-0 down and won that.

[JustLukeYou]

Also backed more than 0 goal in the first half which is the only thing I could see happening and that has won.


Manchester United vs. Liverpool / First half goals 0.5
For Over 0.5 Goals
£0.10
1.5
£0.10

[Derek27]

I know you've called me a naysayer for being pessimistic about your chances

Yes, but it was a "constructive discussion".

[spreadbetting]

Also backed more than 0 goal in the first half which is the only thing I could see happening and that has won.


Manchester United vs. Liverpool / First half goals 0.5
For Over 0.5 Goals
£0.10
1.5
£0.10

What changed your mind to betting on the game, other than a bit of aftertiming?

Hi Luke. Whats your view on the Man U v Liverpool game?

No idea tbh. Some games I skip.

[Derek27]

have you seen how much competition there is on Amazon?

Unfortunately you've chosen an alternative business that's probably even more competitive. I've told you that approx 5% of new traders eventually make a long term profit so I was wondering what price you estimate your own chances to be, how long it will take and what it will cost you?

I know you've called me a naysayer for being pessimistic about your chances but I've seen a lot of people start over the years. The ones who make it are the ones who are natural problem solvers, the sort who will take one sentance or comment and not sleep (proverbially) until they have understood every word and all the meanings between the words too. Do you feel like you're that sort of person?

As for a business with a level playing field, then I think your lack of knowledge about the industry is making you underestimate the calibre of the competition. Trading isn't just a bunch of people watching telly and having a hunch about a result and the link below shows you what you're up against. People like these are included in that 5% who make it too. I'm not saying everyone has to commit to that extent but it's an indication of how complex trading is at the highest level and competition for a slice of the market is brutal. https://www.indeed.co.uk/cmp/Bettor-Believe/jobs

What the key reasons why people fail? Also just because it is competitive I don't understand how that influences how successful an individual person is. Running an ecommerce business is all about supply, demand and profit margin which is heavily influenced by the competition. How does the competition influence how much a trader makes?

If only 5% of people succeed, it means many people well above average ability will fail. That in turn means that people with zero understanding of trading who struggle to understand the basics after 200 questions, who demonstrate an inability to listen, learn or think for themselves and want everything explained to them in minute detail will have virtually no chance of success.

[jimibt]

Unfortunately you've chosen an alternative business that's probably even more competitive. I've told you that approx 5% of new traders eventually make a long term profit so I was wondering what price you estimate your own chances to be, how long it will take and what it will cost you?

I know you've called me a naysayer for being pessimistic about your chances but I've seen a lot of people start over the years. The ones who make it are the ones who are natural problem solvers, the sort who will take one sentance or comment and not sleep (proverbially) until they have understood every word and all the meanings between the words too. Do you feel like you're that sort of person?

As for a business with a level playing field, then I think your lack of knowledge about the industry is making you underestimate the calibre of the competition. Trading isn't just a bunch of people watching telly and having a hunch about a result and the link below shows you what you're up against. People like these are included in that 5% who make it too. I'm not saying everyone has to commit to that extent but it's an indication of how complex trading is at the highest level and competition for a slice of the market is brutal. https://www.indeed.co.uk/cmp/Bettor-Believe/jobs

What the key reasons why people fail? Also just because it is competitive I don't understand how that influences how successful an individual person is. Running an ecommerce business is all about supply, demand and profit margin which is heavily influenced by the competition. How does the competition influence how much a trader makes?

If only 5% of people succeed, it means many people well above average ability will fail. That in turn means that people with zero understanding of trading who struggle to understand the basics after 200 questions, who demonstrate an inability to listen, learn or think for themselves and want everything explained to them in minute detail will have virtually no chance of success.

not quite sure i fully understand -what are you saying??