Trading What I see !?

[smallplayer]

Hi Goat,

Good to see you're still at it. You can see the advantage of using small stakes, as that loss of 78p means you've still got plenty left in your bank to pay for the 'education' so to speak, and it will last you a lot longer (and hopefully start to increase at some point).

Regarding volume and the real money coming in - yes this gives a clearer indication I think on price movement, and can confirm/continue a previous move that started earlier, but equally the informed money could start a complete reversal - so that's something to watch out for. I agree with Pat, just watching and not entering a trade is a really difficult thing to master, and I'm still not fully there on that.

To add another potentially conflicting piece of advice into the mix! I think you might want to exit your trade before the last 2 minutes or so, as this is where things can get really volatile, with huge sums sloshing about as you alluded to, and it is so easy to end up chasing the market all over the place. Of course, sometimes they will go in your favour, but there are often very fast reversals that easily catch you out. I'm still far too slow to exit positions when they start reversing - something to work on.

Also, yes there were more spikes today and they are annoying. I noticed them at the Curragh at the time reported yesterday of about 4:40 - 4:30 to post. I'm not experienced enough to know what they are or why they occur. What you could try, if you are on the wrong side of it, is to wait for a retracement after the spike (which usually happens), then close your position, then open a reverse position. Whether you feel comfortable doing that I don't know.

Lastly, as has probably already been mentioned and I don't know if you are doing it, but try lowering the refresh rate to say 500 ms and that might make it easier to see through some of the noise and put you in a calmer state of mind.

Cheers

Hi again, yes I'm still here, smaller stakes yes, and I'm feeling more determined.
Thanks for the great tips.
I'm going to work on all these this week, and give an update next weekend, as was suggested I've been a bit too verbal with my posts!
Cheers

Nooo..if you don't post then we won't get all the tips and info

Only kidding..you do what suits you best Goat

[speedyhamster]

i am trying to keep things simple

https://youtu.be/CPCAOrziWrM

https://youtu.be/VDyYgL91Rr4

once you can make some profits you can progress hopefully good luck

[speedyhamster]

So I just traded one pattern and got it the wrong way, I am going to note that pattern, as I now think the probable direction is the other way...

by being in and recording the markets you can look at what happened when it bounced and what happened when it went through, but you need to know what to look for.
Going off 1 market then changing your mind imho is like following the market prices and you will be all over the place.

[wearthefoxhat]

i am trying to keep things simple

https://youtu.be/CPCAOrziWrM

https://youtu.be/VDyYgL91Rr4

once you can make some profits you can progress hopefully good luck

@Goat

That trading a steamer video (1st one) is a good one to watch/re-watch. It was one Peter did for a Betfair project (they didn't use it), but it shows PW preparing/deciding to enter a market, but checking a few pointers before doing so. Also shows how he enters the trade and consequently manages it. He also commentates on what his likely exit point will be if it starts to go wrong and remains aware of the off time of the race.

In both videos he reinforces the need not to try and anticipate/trade all the runners, just focus/trade on one.

I'd take a day off, and re-read the whole thread again. as it would be cathartic and there may be other information that may make more sense as you are now further into your journey.

[goat68]

Someone keeps dropping £15k trades into the market at 5mins to go, impossible to trade
Although, I might try and wait for it to happen and trade the bounce maybe......

[alexmr2]

Thanks Pat, very informative. One puzzle, is your last comment, the real money watching the horses in the ring being only a fraction.. that surprises me, you're sort of implying most of the money is traders not watching the horses live, really???
On what basis are they trading then? It sort of sounds the horses themselves are irrelevant?!

I once made a post on here I couldn't get my head around and I've been seeing it happen a lot in the last 3 days. A horse is trading in a range but then all the money comes very late and is desperate to get matched at the bottom of the range (worst price of the day). I'm sure sometimes half of the total volume can come in the last minute.

It baffled me why they would want to take a price worse than 95% of the other people who have already bet on that horse. The money is so desperate that it can push below the floor and then the SP is another few ticks down. This really frustrated me as I often lay where I believe the floor is but then would be staring at the price as it goes lower and lower unable to take the loss, and then when my SP is taken it's not fully hedged so I still have a lay portion in and this horse almost always goes on to win which leaves me with an even bigger loss.

People said it's the smart money and arrives as late as possible when there's as little variables as possible and the most liquidity available

[golfpunter86]

Someone keeps dropping £15k trades into the market at 5mins to go, impossible to trade
Although, I might try and wait for it to happen and trade the bounce maybe......

Caught me out a few times over the past few days

[speedyhamster]

Someone keeps dropping £15k trades into the market at 5mins to go, impossible to trade
Although, I might try and wait for it to happen and trade the bounce maybe......

maybe watch what happens with that pattern and yes if it bounces a lot it might work

[goat68]

Being taking advice from weekend comments, and looking at when previous races finish, and thus when to expect volume, preparing my 'poker hand' (@Euler!), Etc..
However, my findings today have been races have greatly overlapped, races finishing at +3mins for the next.... Too tight I think? Hence volume seems spread thin...
Only traded 2 races so far as a result, but both winners.

[Euler]

I often don't trade Tuesdays as historically its a weak day for me and I need time to chill and do other things. Most of my money is made Wed-Sat, so Tuesdays are a nice break.

But today a lot of races are quite tight to each other, so not particularly suitable. Huntingdon being late killed a lot of the early card by the look of it.

[speedyhamster]

Being taking advice from weekend comments, and looking at when previous races finish, and thus when to expect volume, preparing my 'poker hand' (@Euler!), Etc..
However, my findings today have been races have greatly overlapped, races finishing at +3mins for the next.... Too tight I think? Hence volume seems spread thin...
Only traded 2 races so far as a result, but both winners.

maybe you could spend a few days in live mode waiting for opportunities even if only trading a couple of races, and a day or 2 in practice mode
trying different things out (at least you wont lose money experimenting). Then watch back recorded trades (races)
just a thought

[goat68]

I often don't trade Tuesdays as historically its a weak day for me and I need time to chill and do other things. Most of my money is made Wed-Sat, so Tuesdays are a nice break.

But today a lot of races are quite tight to each other, so not particularly suitable. Huntingdon being late killed a lot of the early card by the look of it.

Thanks, yes I saw that today, I traded very little as a result.
I do believe things are starting to 'click' a bit more for me.
Cheers

[Morbius]

You felt the market was going to go lower so you let that dictate how you traded. The market pushed you into making that trade. You have to detach yourself from that emotion.

no, I SAW that the market was going lower, so I traded that momentum, it wasn't "feel". However, it seems I am always late on the momentum, and it turns by the time I get in!

All 7 trades i've done this afternoon have been a loser!

You felt the market was headed lower. So you jumped on it.

When trading you have a setup and adhere to that. You look for the set-up and execute against that, rather than following the market.

The fact you lost all seven in a row is evidence that the market is telling you what to do and you are feeling guided by it.

If you trade at random with no emotion, your strike rate will hover around 50%. So seven losses in a row is a 0.50^7 or a 128 to one chance.

The market forced your hand and you were trading what you felt and that feeling was given to you by the market.

Hello Peter, new to the forum and love your Youtube material. My question to you is if in your opinion based on what you have just said and the fact that both exchanges are now owned by bookmakers and have very low liquidity compared with financial exchanges, whether or not this "perception" and the emotions "given to you by the market" is a deliberate ploy to manoeuvre traders into leaving money behind. Alternatively is this just the way the markets are and their natural characteristics that cause this.

[Euler]

It's easy to think the markets are working against you, but your role as a trader is to see through that and exploit what you see in a market, regardless of where it comes from. It can be exhausting trying to unpick the market, so it's best to sit back and watch it. It literally breaths in and out.

It's annoying that the markets haven't grown they way they should but Betfair headed down the sports / bookie route rather than financial markets, else it may be a bit higher now. But such is life, you can still make a decent living from it and it doesn't attract the sorts of people you may see in a financial market. So that's no bad thing.

[gunnerryan]

It's annoying that the markets haven't grown they way they should but Betfair headed down the sports / bookie route rather than financial markets, else it may be a bit higher now. But such is life, you can still make a decent living from it and it doesn't attract the sorts of people you may see in a financial market. So that's no bad thing.

They seems to have given up on the USA.

https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/99 ... ing-market