US Presidential Election 2020

Punting on politics
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jamesg46
Posts: 1582
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:18 am
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:11 am
Interesting & now I see what you mean. I dont doubt for a second that every Democrat will be out to vote, i think I mentioned earlier in the thread that it could well be the people who didn't bother to vote in 2016 & the newly eligible voters that could make the difference this time around.
Whatever happens it should be a great night of tv :)
CNN might be bearable that night.... Will certainly be getting some beers and snacks. Personally I'm not bothered who wins, I think it's all a show, but I dread to think what the reaction will be if Trump does get a 2nd term, we've seen some people get unhinged over Trump being President, these people are at breaking point (which isn't nice to see.)
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Naffman
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Be interesting to see the fallout of the Biden/Ukrainian story by the NYP that gained a lot of traction overnight given twatter and facebook have censored the story
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gazuty
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Naffman wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:13 am
Dallas wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:28 pm
Postal vote in Florida is well up on previous years so far and significantly more than 50% are for Biden
Don't quote me on this but I think something like 60% of dems plan to vote by mail compared to just 25-30% of republicans.

Republicans had 58,000 more votes through the mail than dems in 2016 but the dems have requested 1.6 million compared to republicans' 1.2 million this year
The chance of making a mistake in a mail in ballot is very high, something like 20x the chance of an in person in ballot booth mistake. The procedures are much more complicated / in some states the outside and inside envelope need to be signed across the seal. In other states there needs to be an affidavit signed and witnessed. My understanding in the US - historically around 10% of mail in are invalid. This time around it will be a lot higher maybe up to 30% invalid - mainly because so many first timers will get it wrong. Scrutineers on both sides will be all over these ballots and there will no doubt be court challenges etc. hanging chads but worse. It’s bad because it strikes at democracy and western values generally. China and Russia will sit back and laugh, without even having to actively interfere. Sigh.
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Naffman
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gazuty wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:59 am
Naffman wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:13 am
Dallas wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:28 pm
Postal vote in Florida is well up on previous years so far and significantly more than 50% are for Biden
Don't quote me on this but I think something like 60% of dems plan to vote by mail compared to just 25-30% of republicans.

Republicans had 58,000 more votes through the mail than dems in 2016 but the dems have requested 1.6 million compared to republicans' 1.2 million this year
The chance of making a mistake in a mail in ballot is very high, something like 20x the chance of an in person in ballot booth mistake. The procedures are much more complicated / in some states the outside and inside envelope need to be signed across the seal. In other states there needs to be an affidavit signed and witnessed. My understanding in the US - historically around 10% of mail in are invalid. This time around it will be a lot higher maybe up to 30% invalid - mainly because so many first timers will get it wrong. Scrutineers on both sides will be all over these ballots and there will no doubt be court challenges etc. hanging chads but worse. It’s bad because it strikes at democracy and western values generally. China and Russia will sit back and laugh, without even having to actively interfere. Sigh.
No matter which side I was voting on I'd want to vote in person
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Naffman wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:25 am
Be interesting to see the fallout of the Biden/Ukrainian story by the NYP that gained a lot of traction overnight given twatter and facebook have censored the story
Are you still flogging that horse?! :lol:

Put aside the fact that its the New York Post which is about as reputable as the National Enquirer, and also put aside the fact that its owned by Rupert Murdoch the problem with that story is there's no evidence.

Its just like the story that broke last night on CNN about a secret 3 year long secret investigation by the feds into a foreign link to Trump's 2016 campaign money. That investigation ended after 3 years because there was no evidence.

Both stories are just gossip if they cant be proven.
ddjsphere
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:56 pm

I am confident money will be made from this market. Trump will most def win this Elections. Bigger underlying forces at work. :)
Rabbs
Posts: 8
Joined: Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:26 am

The market is seemingly aligned to the polls. The polls are wrong.
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jamesg46
Posts: 1582
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Rabbs wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:11 am
The market is seemingly aligned to the polls. The polls are wrong.
Biden,

Can't pull them to events.
Can't pull them to Q&A's.
Has the least following on Social Media.
Can't answer the real questions.

The guy is about as popular as the fly that was on Mike Pence's head, he's popular with the Left leaning MSM & a few screamers on Twitter. Other than that I cannot find his supporters anywhere.

Maybe though, which is interesting. I can't remember where it's from but a social study found that people engage more with the things that make them angry & they've become addicted to it. They seek the debate, they crave the superior opinion, all rational conversation is meaningless, poke,.prod & provoke to get their fix. Guess who caters to their needs in abundance.

The MSM are also victim to this, its Trump all day, every day 24/7 - people taking sound bites and echoing them regardless of them being factual, just in a desperate need to bait their next debate victim.

Question is if all of those people watching Trump and following his account really do fit into the above..... can they give up their addiction.
Anbell
Posts: 777
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

ddjsphere wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:38 pm
I am confident money will be made from this market.
I'm also very confident of this.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3014
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Anbell wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:01 am
ddjsphere wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:38 pm
I am confident money will be made from this market.
I'm also very confident of this.
The amount of time some people have spent on this market you'd hope they'd be in at least 4-5 figures by now.
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