US Presidential Election 2020

[LeTiss]

It's volatile, we'll agree on that!

There are clearly some huge players involved in this market - to move a price by 5 or 6 ticks when there's so much money sat in the markets, takes a bloody massive order

[Morbius]

Biden is not drifting now, he has been at least 1.65 today

Is there one market for Trump supporters and another for Democrats?

I know Biden is short but it would somewhat surprise me if he won this election. American's are very big on people with larger than life personalities and who are big, bold and brash and Biden comes way behind Trump on this scale. I sometimes think that if Trump was a convicted sex offender then 30% of the people would still vote for him. However, this isn't a normal year and 235k dead and climbing isn't going to do any existing President any favours

[Archery1969]

The NRA has been emailing and calling members telling them to get out and vote for Trump arguing that their gun rights are at risk if they dont.

Americans love their guns with over 350 million in circulation.

[Trader Pat]

The NRA has been emailing and calling members telling them to get out and vote for Trump arguing that their gun rights are at risk if they dont.

Americans love their guns with over 350 million in circulation.

The NRA do that before every election, every Democrat is coming to take their guns!

Sad thing is half of the idiots believe it

[Zenyatta]

Both candidates are very unlikeable, and it's definitely not normal circumstances; huge number of early mail-in votes, and the Pandemic, so one might think it's unpredictable.

But I'm willing to go in huge here and bet the house on Biden

[Derek27]

Biden is not drifting now, he has been at least 1.65 today

Is there one market for Trump supporters and another for Democrats?

I know Biden is short but it would somewhat surprise me if he won this election. American's are very big on people with larger than life personalities and who are big, bold and brash and Biden comes way behind Trump on this scale. I sometimes think that if Trump was a convicted sex offender then 30% of the people would still vote for him. However, this isn't a normal year and 235k dead and climbing isn't going to do any existing President any favours

It baffles me how on a betting or trading forum people say that an odds-against selection is certain to win or an odds-on favourite is very unlikely to win, in a two-horse race, yet fail to mention the value/betting opportunity of the century!

[Trader Pat]

Is there one market for Trump supporters and another for Democrats?

I know Biden is short but it would somewhat surprise me if he won this election. American's are very big on people with larger than life personalities and who are big, bold and brash and Biden comes way behind Trump on this scale. I sometimes think that if Trump was a convicted sex offender then 30% of the people would still vote for him. However, this isn't a normal year and 235k dead and climbing isn't going to do any existing President any favours

It baffles me how on a betting or trading forum people say that an odds-against selection is certain to win or an odds-on favourite is very unlikely to win, in a two-horse race, yet fail to mention the value/betting opportunity of the century!

It baffles me that people think the market has any correlation to the actual chances of either candidate winning

[Archery1969]

The NRA has been emailing and calling members telling them to get out and vote for Trump arguing that their gun rights are at risk if they dont.

Americans love their guns with over 350 million in circulation.

The NRA do that before every election, every Democrat is coming to take their guns!

Sad thing is half of the idiots believe it

Might be different this time as Biden/Democrates have pledges to restrict gun access and ban class 3 firearms from 38 states. That would piss of a few million people.

[Trader Pat]

The NRA has been emailing and calling members telling them to get out and vote for Trump arguing that their gun rights are at risk if they dont.

Americans love their guns with over 350 million in circulation.

The NRA do that before every election, every Democrat is coming to take their guns!

Sad thing is half of the idiots believe it

Might be different this time as Biden/Democrates have pledges to restrict gun access and ban class 3 firearms from 38 states. That would piss of a few million people.

What also might be different this time is the race for the Senate. The Dems are slight favourites for a Senate majority which would give them control of the House and The Senate so you might be right there. If that happened they could finally get some proper gun control legislation passed.

So many markets to keep on an eye on tonight. Senate market and Electoral College votes market is where I'll be focused! Can't wait!

[wearthefoxhat]

bet.jpg

[Morbius]

I know Biden is short but it would somewhat surprise me if he won this election. American's are very big on people with larger than life personalities and who are big, bold and brash and Biden comes way behind Trump on this scale. I sometimes think that if Trump was a convicted sex offender then 30% of the people would still vote for him. However, this isn't a normal year and 235k dead and climbing isn't going to do any existing President any favours

It baffles me how on a betting or trading forum people say that an odds-against selection is certain to win or an odds-on favourite is very unlikely to win, in a two-horse race, yet fail to mention the value/betting opportunity of the century!

It baffles me that people think the market has any correlation to the actual chances of either candidate winning

+1

Or has any understanding of punter psychology or how the market often takes the easy route of following opinion polls or has limited memory on how often polls have been wrong because lets face it....how many people on this forum are experts in politics?? I would have traded Trump by backing him to win a couple of weeks ago when Biden was short because I expected him to come in and Biden to drift but I didn't do it...why...you tell me! I thought Trump was big value when he was odds against and still do but what is "value" anyway? A woolly, often shady grey area where punters justify betting.

As a trade though, it really should have been the right thing to do to back him a couple of weeks ago and then exit about 24hrs out.

[Archery1969]

The NRA do that before every election, every Democrat is coming to take their guns!

Sad thing is half of the idiots believe it

Might be different this time as Biden/Democrates have pledges to restrict gun access and ban class 3 firearms from 38 states. That would piss of a few million people.

What also might be different this time is the race for the Senate. The Dems are slight favourites for a Senate majority which would give them control of the House and The Senate so you might be right there. If that happened they could finally get some proper gun control legislation passed.

So many markets to keep on an eye on tonight. Senate market and Electoral College votes market is where I'll be focused! Can't wait!

Yeah but dont think American gun owners would do as say the UK and NZ owners did and hand them in if banned. Many would bury or hide them hoping for change in 4 years time when Republicans got back in. Although i suspect many would say, "If you want it then come and take it".

I remember Obama tried to bring in gun controls, he couldn't so said "Lets do something about ammunition then", he told the FBI, ATF and Homeland Security to buy up all civillian ammo. Idea being you can keep your guns but you cant feed them with ammo. That also failed as gun companies said that they would only sell ammo to civilians and not law enforcement. Hence he dropped that idea.

Biggest problem with gun control in the USA is there is no gun registry, so the state and federal government dont know what guns people have and how many. And you cant issue an executive order to search every home, basement, outhouse, bunker to try and find them. That would need a special warrant and no Judge would sign off on it. Plus you would need a lot of law enforcement people to enact it.

Gun control with never happen in the USA unless it goes to war with its own people. That would be political suicide!!!

[Trader Pat]

I remember Obama tried to bring in gun controls, he couldn't so said "Lets do something about ammunition then", he told the FBI, ATF and Homeland Security to buy up all civillian ammo. Idea being you can keep your guns but you cant feed them with ammo. That also failed as gun companies said that they would only sell ammo to civilians and not law enforcement. Hence he dropped that idea.

Obama couldn't get it done because he didn't control the House and Senate. If they get control after this election then I'd expect bills to be passed at least on tougher background checks. Its worth remembering that a majority of Americans want tougher gun control including a lot of Republican voters.

[Trader Pat]

Or has any understanding of punter psychology or how the market often takes the easy route of following opinion polls or has limited memory on how often polls have been wrong because lets face it....how many people on this forum are experts in politics?? I would have traded Trump by backing him to win a couple of weeks ago when Biden was short because I expected him to come in and Biden to drift but I didn't do it...why...you tell me! I thought Trump was big value when he was odds against and still do but what is "value" anyway? A woolly, often shady grey area where punters justify betting.

As a trade though, it really should have been the right thing to do to back him a couple of weeks ago and then exit about 24hrs out.

I've been finished with the outright market for a couple of weeks now, only way I'll get back involved is if Trump trades odds on. I was expecting Trumps price to come in about a month ago but the market just got stuck around 3.00. That would have messed up a few strategies.

[Emmson]

So the move has ended up back to where it started and where I exited.

I fear there will be social unrest whatever happens as there will a lot of seriously pissed off people over there guaranteed.