US Presidential Election 2020

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Derek27
Posts: 25159
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

NickH wrote: ↑
Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:27 am
 What have I missed to see the odds on trump go from 1.48 to 1.68 in the last 2min? :D
Seems a bit like trading horse racing to me, (Biden's) price goes from 1.6 to 4.5 and back down again and you don't know why!

Who cares though, the world's become a potentially safer place in the last ten minutes. :D
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Derek27
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Zenyatta wrote: ↑
Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:31 am
 Huge swings back and forth! :D All you needed was steel balls to go all-in on Biden like I said and you'd have made your fortune!

Biden price right back in to 2.28 ! Biden roaring back for the win!
Anyone who took your advice last time wouldn't have any balls left - or money, as they'd have gone all-in on Hillary!
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alexmr2
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Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

Whos is making up most of the liquidity, dumb Americans?

Traded it for over an hour slowly building up profits, giving a chunk away then building them back up again. Managed around 30% return on my bank in the end from using what I've learned from pre-off.

Seemed like the book % being so slack meant the crossmatching was delayed by a few seconds so there was some opportunities when you knew what was going to happen before it did?
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

alexmr2 wrote: ↑
Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:58 am
 Whos is making up most of the liquidity, dumb Americans?

Traded it for over an hour slowly building up profits, giving a chunk away then building them back up again. Managed around 30% return on my bank in the end from using what I've learned from pre-off.

Seemed like the book % being so slack meant the crossmatching was delayed by a few seconds so there was some opportunities when you knew what was going to happen before it did?
I wouldn't have thought there'd be much cross-matching in such a volatile market and the slackness of the book shouldn't be relevant because it's a two horse race with 123 competitors, so 121 times 0.1% amounts to 12.1%, so the book's okay.
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rik
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Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am

cross matching is deactivated in next presidient and popular vote market
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alexmr2
Posts: 768
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Derek27 wrote: ↑
Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:07 am
 I wouldn't have thought there'd be much cross-matching in such a volatile market and the slackness of the book shouldn't be relevant because it's a two horse race with 123 competitors, so 121 times 0.1% amounts to 12.1%, so the book's okay.
Ahh that makes sense, I forgot Kanye West and Mark Zuckerberg were in this race :lol:
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firlandsfarm
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Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

alexmr2 wrote: ↑
Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:13 am
 Ahh that makes sense, I forgot Kanye West and Mark Zuckerberg were in this race :lol:
So did the Americans! :lol:
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

Relative to my stakes the market's been a disaster to me after Biden's drift, had to get out. Don't know what was behind that drift but glad Biden's getting closer to evens.
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firlandsfarm
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Zenyatta wrote: ↑
Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:31 am
 Huge swings back and forth! :D
As a self confessed no-hoper when it comes to reading market moves am I showing my naivety by thinking that maybe the cause of the swings is that because the market doesn't really know which way it's going people are jumping on a price move because they don't want to miss out and effectively moving it further until they think time to take the profit and cause a price move reversal?
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Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

isn’t this exciting?, I still think Trump will win, shame I’ve gotta go to work, surprised there ain’t a “null & void” market for this as I think Biden isn’t fit for presidency meself
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3559
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Just woke up..

Ok...so Trump taking Florida...game on

Just checked Betfair....Game over? :shock:

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Naffman
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Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Looking good for Trump across the midwest, Nevada also looking close and Georgia looks a toss-up too.

Surprised with Arizona so far, Biden done very well there
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wearthefoxhat
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Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Naffman wrote: ↑
Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:09 am
 Looking good for Trump across the midwest, Nevada also looking close and Georgia looks a toss-up too.

Surprised with Arizona so far, Biden done very well there

Just tweeted Donald Trump with the latest Betfair odds...I wonder if he will mention it when he speaks in a moment.. :lol:
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NickH
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Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 7:54 am

To be honest, in both cases the US ends up with an incompetent president in my opinion. Just think Biden is 5% less incompetent :D
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wearthefoxhat
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wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑
Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:11 am
Naffman wrote: ↑
Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:09 am
 Looking good for Trump across the midwest, Nevada also looking close and Georgia looks a toss-up too.

Surprised with Arizona so far, Biden done very well there

Just tweeted Donald Trump with the latest Betfair odds...I wonder if he will mention it when he speaks in a moment.. :lol:
Where were his social media team? :D

DT reckons Pen/MI are both in his favour by some margin....if so..DT odds should be at least 1.10..
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