US Presidential Election 2020

[jamesedwards]

Anyone got a decent Trump/Biden price history graph to share please?

[Kafkaesque]

Just legal issues preventing Biden being sub 1.05

Will the market be settled on the outcome of the court? I've looked at the rules and it's unclear to me.

Depends, in my reading of the rules.

If the states declare the electoral votes, the market will be settled. And any later decisions by courts will not cause a reversal of an already settled market. Which would, and should, be the intent of their rules.

If on the other hand a court agrees to take on a case before the votes are declared, I'd say, it would effect the outcome of the market.

[Derek27]

Just legal issues preventing Biden being sub 1.05

Will the market be settled on the outcome of the court? I've looked at the rules and it's unclear to me.

Depends, in my reading of the rules.

If the states declare the electoral votes, the market will be settled. And any later decisions by courts will not cause a reversal of an already settled market. Which would, and should, be the intent of their rules.

If on the other hand a court agrees to take on a case before the votes are declared, I'd say, it would effect the outcome of the market.

Yeah, that sounds quite plausible.

[Archery1969]

Back into 8s ? What’s going on ?

[abgespaced]

The problem was handled by the Democrats long before the counting started. Suppression polling, intimidation, confiscating/burning/discarding postal ballots, votes from dead people and cats. Biden knew he was going to win because of these tactics. In his own words he has "the best election fraud team". That's why he made a speech before Trump did, to force Trumps hand while holding all the aces. Now the left wing has more fuel for their fires. Watch the violence escalate and be blamed on Trump.

[Emmson]

The problem was handled by the Democrats long before the counting started. Suppression polling, intimidation, confiscating/burning/discarding postal ballots, votes from dead people and cats. Biden knew he was going to win because of these tactics. In his own words he has "the best election fraud team". That's why he made a speech before Trump did, to force Trumps hand while holding all the aces. Now the left wing has more fuel for their fires. Watch the violence escalate and be blamed on Trump.

Voter suppression is a republican tool for decades not democrats, quite frankly this is tosh.

[abgespaced]

Voter suppression is a republican tool for decades not democrats, quite frankly this is tosh.

Why were the polls completely wrong then

[Big Bad Barney]

I'm ignorant of much of how all the electoral system in america rolls, but it's certainly a problem when the system fails. The complexity of modern civilisation allows all kinds of evils to set in...well to me there seems a correlation between complexity and abuse in any organisation. The only solution is a good war in which we blow everyone up including ourselves. Perhaps the build back better slogan may fit then.... until the cycle repeats I suppose...

Personally, I read the fraud thing as man-child trump throwing a tantrum....

[abgespaced]

Perhaps the build back better slogan may fit then....

The same slogan used by the left.. the same slogan out of the WEF who want us non-elites by 2030 to "own nothing and be happy about it". The same people behind Biden.

We are all cooked.

[cmuddle]

All of the screenshots were taken at the same time but differ quite a bit.

The Smarkets one is the most interesting to me:
"We have an outright market for most US states. Map colours are shaded according to the current favoured party and likelihood of victory according to latest Smarkets prices. Some states considered 'safe' are shaded according to the 2016 election result. Electoral College count is a dynamic forecast using market data to project the expected number of Electoral College votes for each party."

[Lutruwita]

It probably won't matter, but Arizona isn't 100% dead. The first batch of votes went 59-41. Whilst unlikely to replicate this for the remaining 300k+, Trump would win if he did.

[Derek27]

The problem was handled by the Democrats long before the counting started. Suppression polling, intimidation, confiscating/burning/discarding postal ballots, votes from dead people and cats. Biden knew he was going to win because of these tactics. In his own words he has "the best election fraud team". That's why he made a speech before Trump did, to force Trumps hand while holding all the aces. Now the left wing has more fuel for their fires. Watch the violence escalate and be blamed on Trump.

Trump demanded that vote counting stops while he's winning, including legitimate votes, and you think the Democrats caused the problem.

[jamesedwards]

Somebody just took all the money at 1000 on Kamala Harris

It's just happened again. All the 1000 taken on Kamala Harris with a total of £60k matched so £30,000,000 tied up if my calculations are correct. I can't see why this is happening. Surely according to the rules even if Biden was to die right now, surely it's too late as he will have been the name voted in?

[Euler]

Y, I noticed that. I guess some models or money are pricing in a Biden win and therefore a tiny chance that Harris makes it instead of Biden.

[Emmson]

Yeah this one was more severe a move Kamala down to 760, I would love somehow her to be judged the winner.