US Presidential Election 2020

[Derek27]

Trump was the best president since Reagan, he did a lot.

I certainly agree he did a lot (of talking), and he agrees with you that he did a lot.

Capture.PNG

We're living in a strange fantasy world where the winner of the US presidential election has to leave the White House and the loser of the election becomes the president elect, will get duly sworn in in January and govern for the next four years.

If only losing on Betfair was as profitable!

[Big Bad Barney]

So like, why wouldn't one bet the house on Biden right now @1 .05?

What do you guys think of the value in doing that? What has to happen for that to go wrong?

[Derek27]

So like, why wouldn't one bet the house on Biden right now @1 .05?

What do you guys think of the value in doing that? What has to happen for that to go wrong?

If you place a bet on Biden you're not betting on the next president, who's won the election or whether Trump's legal action will fail; you're betting on how and when Betfair decide to settle the market. For me, that's quite unpredictable.

[Big Bad Barney]

So like, why wouldn't one bet the house on Biden right now @1 .05?

What do you guys think of the value in doing that? What has to happen for that to go wrong?

If you place a bet on Biden you're not betting on the next president, who's won the election or whether Trump's legal action will fail; you're betting on how and when Betfair decide to settle the market. For me, that's quite unpredictable.

But even if it took 6 months, that's not a bad return? More than that might not be profitable...

Or do you mean not only time frames, but what exactly is meant by 'next president'?

[Derek27]

So like, why wouldn't one bet the house on Biden right now @1 .05?

What do you guys think of the value in doing that? What has to happen for that to go wrong?

If you place a bet on Biden you're not betting on the next president, who's won the election or whether Trump's legal action will fail; you're betting on how and when Betfair decide to settle the market. For me, that's quite unpredictable.

But even if it took 6 months, that's not a bad return? More than that might not be profitable...

Or do you mean not only time frames, but what exactly is meant by 'next president'?

If you go to the market on the Betfair site and click on 'rules' it explains the rules. It's nothing to do with the next president but who gets the most electoral college votes, with a few other conditions. 5% profit over 6 months doesn't sound like a good return to me, especially when you're not guaranteed to win, they can void the market at their description and you're going to be fretting after a month not knowing how or when the market will be settled.

The very fact that you're asking whether or not it's a good bet would suggest you're as clueless as I am.

[Big Bad Barney]

The very fact that you're asking whether or not it's a good bet would suggest you're as clueless as I am.

heh yep, well, actually, I'd say more clueless than you are Undoing cluelessness takes longer than one usually thinks too...could be this way for years ")

When interest rates are approaching 0% I didn't think 5% over 6 months was that bad...it'd certainly give me more than my bank does, and if you talk to enough gold bullion hoarders they'd have you convinced the bank wont give me ANY money in 6 months either

...but in either cause I guess it seems to me its there for scalping for however long its going to be open for... I would feel more comfortable backing first.

Then because I am new at this, I question how much risk is involved with large sums... (the bigger the sum the more risk averse I get....which doesn't really make any sense....I think it's my mind projecting disaster)

[Derek27]

someone said we need evidence of voter fraud.

it is a book votescam by the collier brothers.

look at how the market changed at 11 pm wednesdays.

please moderators do not be like youtube, and censor all Republicans or Conservatives.

you are using the bbc ( started by a Pro hitler supporter) to frame our discussion.

This is a coup worse than Nixon, Trump stood up to the establishment, and that has not been done in a long time, they marketed the sars virus as covid 19 to destroy the economy so he cannot be reelected.

wall of us who hate the globalist vision of the world, we have to congradulate them, they kicked our asses,

but we still have brexit, now how are they going to overcome that one?


I was so wrong about trump, just because his father was involved in interigue did not mean he ws going to be a globalist tool.

Trump was the best president since Reagan, he did a lot. Obama was there to make white America feel less guilt, he was presentation over substance.

The next republican has to defy the liberal media like Trump.

Disney buying Fox news was a killer, Fox wee turn coat, they are globalists .

Trump has given the right hope, we need someone with their own money and a clean slate.

the first act of the next republican president has to investigate the funding and the goals of movements like Black lives Matter.

the globalist served us curve balls, the have won this battle, but we have to capitalise on the weaknesses they have showed.

The deep state is not finding it easy to carry out their agendas.

We have too solve this media problem, we can all the independent, constitutionalist , Conservatives crowd fund to start our of social media platforms?


To stop the world economy to unseat trump, it shows you how desperate the establishment was.

now one can deny that the deep state exist, but they are finding it harder to achieve their goals, black people are now against the Democrats. black women still believe in the plantation, but men are turning against them.

Is that post to be read as a coherent whole or are they all individual self-contained statements?

Sorry, I've had a long night.

[Anbell]

BF have clarified:

The outcome of the US election remains unclear so here's an update (dated Friday, 18:00) on how Betfair will settle its markets...

Ordinarily in a US election, a result declaration from various news networks would be followed by a concession speech by the losing candidate.

This would trigger the settlement of the remaining Betfair markets. It's what happened in 2008, 2012 and 2016.

As you know - and as was widely predicted - 2020 is no ordinary election! One reason for this is the turnout which looks set to be the highest for over a century. This means it's taking longer to count the votes, especially in swing states.

Another factor is the possibility that the losing candidate may challenge the results in the courts.

We will only settle the markets when there is certainty around which candidate has the most projected Electoral College votes.

Before settling the markets, we must therefore wait for clarity around ongoing vote counts, recounts and any potential legal challenges to the results.

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us ... 0-204.html

[abgespaced]

BF have clarified:

The outcome of the US election remains unclear so here's an update (dated Friday, 18:00) on how Betfair will settle its markets...

Ordinarily in a US election, a result declaration from various news networks would be followed by a concession speech by the losing candidate.

This would trigger the settlement of the remaining Betfair markets. It's what happened in 2008, 2012 and 2016.

As you know - and as was widely predicted - 2020 is no ordinary election! One reason for this is the turnout which looks set to be the highest for over a century. This means it's taking longer to count the votes, especially in swing states.

Another factor is the possibility that the losing candidate may challenge the results in the courts.

We will only settle the markets when there is certainty around which candidate has the most projected Electoral College votes.

Before settling the markets, we must therefore wait for clarity around ongoing vote counts, recounts and any potential legal challenges to the results.

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us ... 0-204.html

Good thing Betfair isn't run by lib dems!

[jamesg46]

Now that Betfair have clarified this I'm flipping some money on a Biden Lay. Not only has he got to make it to the Whitehouse (the backing of Kemala thing) but there is the re counts of 2 really close calls, then there is the cluster of different legislation issues that are either legitimate or conspiracy (depending on preferred news outlet) & then also the Supreme Court issue in Pennsylvania (the separate counting of late votes) that some county's ignored and instead tabulated as normal.

I think just a bit of uncertainty could creep into the market, especially now Betfair are finding reasons to keep it open.

[Derek27]

Now that Betfair have clarified this I'm flipping...

There's no need to swear - just as well the forum has its swear filter.

So, ordinarily, the market would be settled after an event that's not even mandatory (which was completely omitted from the rules) and that anyone with half a brain would realise, with Trump, isn't likely to happen. Betfair now realises that it was widely predicted that this would be no ordinary election so hindsight shouldn't be necessary, but with hindsight they needed to clarify the rules.

I don't think there's any realistic chance of the Biden/Harris ticket not winning, they're too far ahead even if a recount has any effect. It's really a case of how Betfair are going to settle the market - given that they can't even be clear about their own rules I wouldn't be surprised if they gave it to Oprah Winfrey!

[wearthefoxhat]

Now that Betfair have clarified this I'm flipping...

There's no need to swear - just as well the forum has its swear filter.

So, ordinarily, the market would be settled after an event that's not even mandatory (which was completely omitted from the rules) and that anyone with half a brain would realise, with Trump, isn't likely to happen. Betfair now realises that it was widely predicted that this would be no ordinary election so hindsight shouldn't be necessary, but with hindsight they needed to clarify the rules.

I don't think there's any realistic chance of the Biden/Harris ticket not winning, they're too far ahead even if a recount has any effect. It's really a case of how Betfair are going to settle the market - given that they can't even be clear about their own rules I wouldn't be surprised if they gave it to Oprah Winfrey!

If anyone gets stuck into the 1.05/1.06 at the moment, and are looking for early settlement, then it now seems to depend on whether Trump will U-turn on his legal shenanigans and not prolong the whole process into 2021.

I'm sure one person that wants to whole process to end will be Melania Trump. I get the impression she "agreed" 4 years ago to let Donald take a shot at POTUS, anticipating that he won't win it...She has looked unhappy the last few years, especially when Barron got dragged into the spotlight.

She also looks like a woman that has been short on some proper bedroom action for a long time...I digress..(a golf widow?)

drive.png

[jamesg46]

Now that Betfair have clarified this I'm flipping...

There's no need to swear - just as well the forum has its swear filter.

So, ordinarily, the market would be settled after an event that's not even mandatory (which was completely omitted from the rules) and that anyone with half a brain would realise, with Trump, isn't likely to happen. Betfair now realises that it was widely predicted that this would be no ordinary election so hindsight shouldn't be necessary, but with hindsight they needed to clarify the rules.

I don't think there's any realistic chance of the Biden/Harris ticket not winning, they're too far ahead even if a recount has any effect. It's really a case of how Betfair are going to settle the market - given that they can't even be clear about their own rules I wouldn't be surprised if they gave it to Oprah Winfrey!

I don't think there is any realistic chance of Trump winning tbh, but with Trumps legal team scalping the terms and conditions of the key states individual election legislation I'm willing to flip some back on the Lay side of Biden in the hope for a little uncertainty.

I'm not for a moment suggesting that any of these legal challenges hold a chance of changing the election result, I have no idea, I'm not a lawyer & the constitution is far to complex for my tiny brain to understand

My thinking is, confusion may create a little bit of uncertainty, with each state having their own legislation and being held accountable to that legislation by a team of Trump scalpers. What happens to the vote count in Pennsylvania too, we just don't know... they didn't abide by the Supreme Courts ruling and the interesting thing is, they cant just take out the late votes that have been counted, which ones were late & which ones weren't, its impossible to know, how will the courts now deal with that? There is a lot going on and tbh, I don't understand it in any great detail but I'd also imagine that a great number of market participants are also like me and little curve balls could lead to some interesting action, hopefully.

As for the result, who cares? I'm not American, my opinion on a sitting or future President is completely irrelevant.

[abgespaced]

My guess is that right now Trump is considering how best to pull the plug on the whole system.

[Archery1969]

My guess is that right now Trump is considering how best to pull the plug on the whole system.

If it were me then I would be staying in bed with that wife until 19th January 2021.