US Presidential Election 2020

[Derek27]

The Election Commissioner upheld a number of the allegations, including:

• Voting fraud: ballots were double-cast or cast from false addresses

• False statements made against Mr Rahman's rival Mr Biggs

• Bribery: large amounts of money were given to organisations who were "totally ineligible or who failed to meet the threshold for eligibility"

• Treating: providing free food and drink to encourage people to vote for Mr Rahman

• Spiritual influence: voters were told that it was their duty as Muslims to vote for Mr Rahman. Mr Mawrey cited a letter signed by 101 Imams in Bengali stating it was people's "religious duty" to vote.

I still can't see what that's got to do with the left or postal voting!! Right-wing activists could just as easily do that!

[superfrank]

Forget it.

When are they going to settle this damn market? I want to drown my sorrows with my meagre winnings.

[burntheory]

Forget it.

When are they going to settle this damn market? I want to drown my sorrows with my meagre winnings.

It's the Next President market.

Right now Biden is rated as a 95% chance of being that person. BF might decide to wait until he crosses the finishing line on Jan 20th before settling up. There's tens of millions of pounds in this market. That's a big mess to clear up if something unforeseen happens between now and then.

[wearthefoxhat]

Forget it.

When are they going to settle this damn market? I want to drown my sorrows with my meagre winnings.

It's the Next President market.

Right now Biden is rated as a 95% chance of being that person. BF might decide to wait until he crosses the finishing line on Jan 20th before settling up. There's tens of millions of pounds in this market. That's a big mess to clear up if something unforeseen happens between now and then.

Add to that the matched amount currently stands at;

19Nov.png

That's an extra £200 million in a week or so. If they run it until Jan 20th, it would be £1 billion+. Good business decision...

[rik]

That's an extra £200 million in a week or so. If they run it until Jan 20th, it would be £1 billion+. Good business decision...

I doubt they will get anywhere close to 2% commission on that, lot of accounts will actually decrease their liability as they dont want to have funds stuck for weeks

[wearthefoxhat]

That's an extra £200 million in a week or so. If they run it until Jan 20th, it would be £1 billion+. Good business decision...

I doubt they will get anywhere close to 2% commission on that, lot of accounts will actually decrease their liability as they dont want to have funds stuck for weeks

I read somewhere the average comms Betfair can get is a nett 3% overall. That takes into account the 2%ers. 5%ers and Premium Chargers, on all markets, year on year.

[eightbo]

citation needed

[rik]

That's an extra £200 million in a week or so. If they run it until Jan 20th, it would be £1 billion+. Good business decision...

I doubt they will get anywhere close to 2% commission on that, lot of accounts will actually decrease their liability as they dont want to have funds stuck for weeks

I read somewhere the average comms Betfair can get is a nett 3% overall. That takes into account the 2%ers. 5%ers and Premium Chargers, on all markets, year on year.

they say average is 3% so they use that for commission generated it might be somewhat accurate for settled markets, it would actually be better for them for premium charge calculation if they put that value lower so no reason to overestimate
however there is no way they are getting anywhere close 1.5% of the 750million, from me they are getting less than 0.1% as ive been changing position many times during election night
i went on biden 3 days after the election but i would assume more people than not if they had a position on biden on election night would trade out at least partly rather adding to their position as they dont want to have their funds stuck for a few percent, if they are on trump they might just want to get 5% of their losses back so they will add to turnover but wont pay commission should the election be overturned

[Derek27]

Forget it.

When are they going to settle this damn market? I want to drown my sorrows with my meagre winnings.

It's the Next President market.

Right now Biden is rated as a 95% chance of being that person. BF might decide to wait until he crosses the finishing line on Jan 20th before settling up. There's tens of millions of pounds in this market. That's a big mess to clear up if something unforeseen happens between now and then.

Only by name. If you check out the rules it's actually who has the most projected electoral college votes, and that's Biden.

[jamesedwards]

Only by name. If you check out the rules it's actually who has the most projected electoral college votes, and that's Biden.

My view is that the projected votes are not decided until the Electoral College meet on 14th Dec.

[burntheory]

Forget it.

When are they going to settle this damn market? I want to drown my sorrows with my meagre winnings.

It's the Next President market.

Right now Biden is rated as a 95% chance of being that person. BF might decide to wait until he crosses the finishing line on Jan 20th before settling up. There's tens of millions of pounds in this market. That's a big mess to clear up if something unforeseen happens between now and then.

Only by name. If you check out the rules it's actually who has the most projected electoral college votes, and that's Biden.

Thanks Derek.

To be honest, I only ever play sports markets so never checked the rules. I'm just fascinated about how much is invested in this market and why it's taken so long to move towards where I'd expect it to be given the information in the public domain.

[Derek27]

Only by name. If you check out the rules it's actually who has the most projected electoral college votes, and that's Biden.

My view is that the projected votes are not decided until the Electoral College meet on 14th Dec.

What exactly does projected mean in the context of the election?

Normally they settle the market as soon as the loser concedes so I'm guessing the projected winner is the one who secured the votes, even if they are overturned in court.

[Trader Pat]

Only by name. If you check out the rules it's actually who has the most projected electoral college votes, and that's Biden.

My view is that the projected votes are not decided until the Electoral College meet on 14th Dec.

Its like Derek says which is why I'm amazed people were backing Harris and Pence after election day. First two lines of the rules:

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market.

[jamesedwards]

Only by name. If you check out the rules it's actually who has the most projected electoral college votes, and that's Biden.

My view is that the projected votes are not decided until the Electoral College meet on 14th Dec.

What exactly does projected mean in the context of the election?

Normally they settle the market as soon as the loser concedes so I'm guessing the projected winner is the one who secured the votes, even if they are overturned in court.

My view is that Betfair will deem the outcome of that 14th Dec meeting as the "projection". Each Elector is duty bound to vote according to this meeting although "Faithless Electors" have occasionally occurred in the past where an Elector votes differently to what they agreed.

This would explain why Betfair specifically called out "subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market".

This could also explain why there has been interest in Harris or Pence to win this market if Biden or Trump were to die before the 14th Dec. Remember that Harris and Pence were both listed on the ballot paper. Who knows how the College Electoral meeting would manage the voting in the event of unexpected death?

[Tuco]

Its like Derek says which is why I'm amazed people were backing Harris and Pence after election day. First two lines of the rules:

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market.

...exactly Pat - it's not rocket science!