Greyhound Mystique

[ArticalBadboy]

Even though I'm not profiting from this system, I would like to thank Archery1969 for being generous enough to share this level of detail...it is rare and very much appreciated.

I must admit, other than the obvious 'don't take the price on offer' advice I don't understand why this would work?
We are working out the quickest dog based on average best and last speed, but punters don't bet on that one metric alone.

Has anyone established whether backing these selections to level stakes would be profitable?

[spreadbetting]

This is a made up example but will give you an idea of the modified selection method.

Every dog's last race was run at the same distance but we have 2 who are now stepping up in grade. Therefore we increase there last run times by 0.10s.

If one of the dogs had run over a shorter or longer distance then we would scrap that race altogether.

I'll have to look for a site that gives previous race grade too now

[Archery1969]

This is a made up example but will give you an idea of the modified selection method.

Every dog's last race was run at the same distance but we have 2 who are now stepping up in grade. Therefore we increase there last run times by 0.10s.

If one of the dogs had run over a shorter or longer distance then we would scrap that race altogether.

I'll have to look for a site that gives previous race grade too now

Hi SB,

If a dog is stepping up in grade then +0.10s and if a dog is stepping down in grade -0.10s.

Reason being dogs stepping up in grade tend to perform worse and dogs stepping down in grade tend to perform better.

But for trading we don’t care if they win or lose, only to see if they likely to shorten in price.

The current race grade must be A1 to A11 and every dog in the race must have run last time at the same distance and grade from A1 to A11.

This roughly means you ignore 1/3 of races but because there are so many it matters not.

Cheers,

[spreadbetting]

Are you data gathering manually or have a database of past results? Most sites don't have the data laid out nicely, any idea of a good site for scraping data, thanks.

[Archery1969]

Are you data gathering manually or have a database of past results? Most sites don't have the data laid out nicely, any idea of a good site for scraping data, thanks.

I have a database which is updated after each race from RacingPost.

[spreadbetting]

Thanks, a dedicated database is the way forward as you can weed out rogue data. For me there's only so much time and starting a dogs DB from scratch probably isn't worth the time/profit reward at the moment. The RP site does look best but seems to be javascript driven so a little more hassle to scrape than the SP site.

[Archery1969]

Thanks, a dedicated database is the way forward as you can weed out rogue data. For me there's only so much time and starting a dogs DB from scratch probably isn't worth the time/profit reward at the moment. The RP site does look best but seems to be javascript driven so a little more hassle to scrape than the SP site.

I did start with getting data from SP site but on multiple occasions the time data was incorrect based on RP and TF data so I switched to RP. Maybe they fixed the issue, I did email them about it but got no reply back.

[murdok]

I will test with my new scrap and thx for the info

[BertieBert]

ok 1k match on central park 18:09, at 6min out and the book is 103.5% - 97.5% how is there any capacity left? even if you're backing favourites (to consider the case with the most volume) you're talking about say £5k matched on the fav on average, so £2.5k max capacity on what is now a well documented public strategy?

[spreadbetting]

ok 1k match on central park 18:09, at 6min out and the book is 103.5% - 97.5% how is there any capacity left? even if you're backing favourites (to consider the case with the most volume) you're talking about say £5k matched on the fav on average, so £2.5k max capacity on what is now a well documented public strategy?

The strategy may well be public but the devil is always in the detail. From my point of view it's like I mentioned before , it's never going to get you a retirement home in the Bahamas but the sheer amount of races should get you a few quid. I still pull a grand a week from the dogs and dare say Memphis and Archery put in that extra effort and probably do better.

No one's going to get rich off a 1K turnover race but you may be able to sneak a quid from it, or if not that race there's at least a thousand other dog races a week to choose from. I used to have an alert sound when certain criteria was met so I could play the dogs manually and I'm sure others also play manually when the criteria is right for them.

[Archery1969]

ok 1k match on central park 18:09, at 6min out and the book is 103.5% - 97.5% how is there any capacity left? even if you're backing favourites (to consider the case with the most volume) you're talking about say £5k matched on the fav on average, so £2.5k max capacity on what is now a well documented public strategy?

Hi,

I would never have selected this race to trade because:

- Two of the dogs last runs were time trials. Remember I said that we only look at a race which is grade A1 to A11 and each dogs last run must have been grade A1 to A11 ?

To answer your main points:

- Just because the book is 103.5% - 97.5% doesnt mean it stays like that from 6 mins down to 1 mins. Because of the low liquidity in dogs then the book can fluctuate massively at different times.

- Only £2.5k capacity. This isnt horse racing, so how much money are you looking to make per race ? Unless its an A1 evening race then you will be lucky to get £20 matched in a single trade. I dont know how SB or MF trade them but i break up that £20 into £2 trades or whatever that race market will accept without jumping all over the place. Sometimes it can be £3 or £4 or £5 or £10 or £20. It depends on the grade type and matched volume at various monitoring points. If you try to match £200 trade on the dogs in a single trade then you will never get matched and spook the market one way or the other.

As many had said the dogs can be very difficult to trade unless you have some kind of edge because the often lack of liquidity will give you a heart attack or blow your stoplosses if being used. But it can be done and many on here and elsewhere are doing so otherwise they would be no matching going on. I am small per trade / per race but like SB said there are over 800+ UK races every week and also Australian, New Zealand and USA dog racing too. If you can make £2 per race profit consistently then its a nice little earner for a single market strategy to add to ones portfolio. I dont know but i assume that some traders have many different market stratigies and when combined make them £500,000+ per year and if its all fully automated then they are far better than me. But there is capacity for others to make some pennies along the way.

Below is a race coming up at tonight at 9:28pm and fits are selection criteria:

So, i will be looking at Trap 1 to see when/if money starts coming in and trade accordingly. Its current back price is 6 and current lay price is 14.5. But remember we will not be backing it at 6.

[Archery1969]

So from my post above I said Trap 1

It was matched at a high of 8.4 and a few minutes later......

[murdok]

the web scrap is giving me the same result as yours this is good is a sign that everything is ok tomorrow I will test thx

[Archery1969]

the web scrap is giving me the same result as yours this is good is a sign that everything is ok tomorrow I will test thx

Nice one!

Just remember to stick to the modified rules since the opening first post. It does mean that we miss out on races whereby a dog(s) have previously run at different distances last time out but it means the method/edge is more sound when we compare times otherwise you are trying to compare apples and oranges etc. This is where the original method fell down over time.

And, i will say it again, if there is a wide gap between best back/lay prices then dont take the back price on offer, offer your own prices. Trap 1 (Cronin) was matched at a high of 8.4 and a low of 3.05, i think. That is some mega ticks profit, for some.

[BertieBert]

But it can be done and many on here and elsewhere are doing so otherwise they would be no matching going on. I am small per trade / per race but like SB said there are over 800+ UK races every week and also Australian, New Zealand and USA dog racing too. If you can make £2 per race profit consistently then its a nice little earner for a single market strategy to add to ones portfolio. I dont know but i assume that some traders have many different market stratigies and when combined make them £500,000+ per year and if its all fully automated then they are far better than me. But there is capacity for others to make some pennies along the way.

Below is a race coming up at tonight at 9:28pm and fits are selection criteria:

So, i will be looking at Trap 1 to see when/if money starts coming in and trade accordingly. Its current back price is 6 and current lay price is 14.5. But remember we will not be backing it at 6.

please stop assuming I've not understood the execution idea. I've said I understand that you do not agress.

i picked the central park race because it was the next graded race when i was posting.

but your main statement that there is capacity for others to make the trade is just not realistic. If you think there is room for you to make £2 a race then why not double your stake? it doesn't matter if you are trading in £1 lots if you double your stake or the 30 other people that are automating based on this thread add another 30x £1 its the the same effect.

just look at the volume of the chosen selection t1 21.28 had a volume of what ~ 15k traded, and the vast vast majority of that in the last minute, there was a less than 1k traded in the time window you described and you've got a lot of smart market makers, and now a lot of followers for a public strategy, nobody is going to be making 500k. and the more people that follow it the less everyone of them is going to get proportionally, if anything at all, even when there are two traders with the same strategy, they don't just share the pie 50-50 from before, they make it smaller by being in competition.