Why not add a data series to highlight where you applied changes to the strategy?
Trading What I see !?
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wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3554
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
You can anticipate these moves based on the market, other runners, etc, which I'm not sure you'll spot in the logs if they're only recording the horse you bet on. I don't consider that particularly important though, it's more about where the exit is when it moves the wrong way.goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:13 pmAnother crap bot day... being staring at logs for 2 hours... its is just random there is no rhyme or reason to a move they just happen....
It's interesting following today's racing thread comments, where people (like beermonster!) keep posting big move charts, but of course no-one says how you catch one? You quite often see similar big move charts where they both look identical to the turn point, then one goes up-up...the other down-down... You could enter 10 trades hoping to catch a big mover and lose 9 of them just to get that 1 big move, that 1 big move maybe making up 5 of the losers at best...
Don't get it?
HELP?!
I record the price of each runner every 10seconds, so I can see relative price movements, and that is part of my strategy.Tetras wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:09 pmYou can anticipate these moves based on the market, other runners, etc, which I'm not sure you'll spot in the logs if they're only recording the horse you bet on. I don't consider that particularly important though, it's more about where the exit is when it moves the wrong way.goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:13 pmAnother crap bot day... being staring at logs for 2 hours... its is just random there is no rhyme or reason to a move they just happen....
It's interesting following today's racing thread comments, where people (like beermonster!) keep posting big move charts, but of course no-one says how you catch one? You quite often see similar big move charts where they both look identical to the turn point, then one goes up-up...the other down-down... You could enter 10 trades hoping to catch a big mover and lose 9 of them just to get that 1 big move, that 1 big move maybe making up 5 of the losers at best...
Don't get it?
HELP?!
Interesting your comment about exit, this I find very difficult. There's so many ways to skin an exit: trail stop, exhaustion move, fixed target, time based, ... ? Struggle with that one, for this coming week i'm just exiting at the close, not ideal when you get a a big loser or a winner that reverts at the close...
I didn't quite, the green week i think was slightly lucky, but red was supposed to be a tweak improvement on green, but a bug in my change and just getting it wrong made a pigs ear! Purple was a change in approach but although started well fell down too easily. The coming week is back to green again, with two slight changes, hopefully not a pigs ear this time!.
What I mean is, there are certain points, especially for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fav where you can somewhat reliably say that it won't move against you excessively (or hardly at all). In those circumstances, you can't guarantee there will be a favourable move, but if the opposing runners are looking good, then it's worth a punt. In other words, there's no point catching big moves if 80% of the time you take 10-15 tick hits in the opposite direction.goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:48 pmI record the price of each runner every 10seconds, so I can see relative price movements, and that is part of my strategy.Tetras wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:09 pmYou can anticipate these moves based on the market, other runners, etc, which I'm not sure you'll spot in the logs if they're only recording the horse you bet on. I don't consider that particularly important though, it's more about where the exit is when it moves the wrong way.goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:13 pmAnother crap bot day... being staring at logs for 2 hours... its is just random there is no rhyme or reason to a move they just happen....
It's interesting following today's racing thread comments, where people (like beermonster!) keep posting big move charts, but of course no-one says how you catch one? You quite often see similar big move charts where they both look identical to the turn point, then one goes up-up...the other down-down... You could enter 10 trades hoping to catch a big mover and lose 9 of them just to get that 1 big move, that 1 big move maybe making up 5 of the losers at best...
Don't get it?
HELP?!
Interesting your comment about exit, this I find very difficult. There's so many ways to skin an exit: trail stop, exhaustion move, fixed target, time based, ... ? Struggle with that one, for this coming week i'm just exiting at the close, not ideal when you get a a big loser or a winner that reverts at the close...
Yes, that was what I was trying to infer with regards big moves have got to really out weigh the losers...Tetras wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:00 pmWhat I mean is, there are certain points, especially for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fav where you can somewhat reliably say that it won't move against you excessively (or hardly at all). In those circumstances, you can't guarantee there will be a favourable move, but if the opposing runners are looking good, then it's worth a punt. In other words, there's no point catching big moves if 80% of the time you take 10-15 tick hits in the opposite direction.goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:48 pmI record the price of each runner every 10seconds, so I can see relative price movements, and that is part of my strategy.Tetras wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:09 pm
You can anticipate these moves based on the market, other runners, etc, which I'm not sure you'll spot in the logs if they're only recording the horse you bet on. I don't consider that particularly important though, it's more about where the exit is when it moves the wrong way.
Interesting your comment about exit, this I find very difficult. There's so many ways to skin an exit: trail stop, exhaustion move, fixed target, time based, ... ? Struggle with that one, for this coming week i'm just exiting at the close, not ideal when you get a a big loser or a winner that reverts at the close...
Not sure how reliable any barrier is though, ive seen many favs up against 2.0, and just push down through it when i thought the others were strong...but I guess it's a probability thing...?
It is a probability thing, but you can still predict the potential for that to happen.goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:21 pmYes, that was what I was trying to infer with regards big moves have got to really out weigh the losers...Tetras wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:00 pmWhat I mean is, there are certain points, especially for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd fav where you can somewhat reliably say that it won't move against you excessively (or hardly at all). In those circumstances, you can't guarantee there will be a favourable move, but if the opposing runners are looking good, then it's worth a punt. In other words, there's no point catching big moves if 80% of the time you take 10-15 tick hits in the opposite direction.goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:48 pm
I record the price of each runner every 10seconds, so I can see relative price movements, and that is part of my strategy.
Interesting your comment about exit, this I find very difficult. There's so many ways to skin an exit: trail stop, exhaustion move, fixed target, time based, ... ? Struggle with that one, for this coming week i'm just exiting at the close, not ideal when you get a a big loser or a winner that reverts at the close...
Not sure how reliable any barrier is though, ive seen many favs up against 2.0, and just push down through it when i thought the others were strong...but I guess it's a probability thing...?
So slightly modified "green" is doing awful today, lost every race!
When I say slightly modified, all I have done is change placing "Best Market Price" to be "Best Reverse Price". Having watched 3 of the races, it seems it has missed out on at least 2 big wins, because the price never got back 1tick to the reverse price...so the train left without me. That old debate...?! I was thinking taking the reverse price would give me roughly 10p saving per race, which adds up...but if you also miss out on the big wins then it's not worth it?