Technical Analysis is stupid

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Euler
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I think that's a fair comment and if Ash wants to get in touch I'd happily chat to him. But, to my knowledge, he has never reached out to me. So he is making a judgement from a distance.

Ironically I just got my annual statement from Betfair today. I do it each year so I have a fully documented record of what I've done as I always knew people would struggle to understand it.
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Tuco
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Kai wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 9:45 pm
so I can imagine it's very difficult for him to tell sharks apart from plankton
...lol :lol:
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alexmr2
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Video is slightly more bearable at 175% speed

He says technical analysis = price movements and volumes = useless. Disagree, in my limited experience the traded volume and money coming into the market is perhaps the most solid indicator of all?

He says that form is useful because bookmakers and punters look at it. Disagree. Everyone has access to this information so it is already priced into the market isn't it? From what I have heard bookmakers don't price runners based on form, there are many more useful stats although I stopped looking into this side of trading because trying to calculate the "true odds" just messed with my manual trading.

I think the problem with technical analysis is that people try and apply the same strategy too rigidly to different markets and it fails. Accepting the losses is perhaps the most difficult part of all, even more so for these PHD people who aren't used to being told they are wrong in every day life. To go from this to 50% strike rate takes a serious amount of brain rewiring so I understand their frustration coming into sports trading. There's every chance a perfectly executed entry on a trend will reverse, there's every chance a bent maiden horse will ignore support levels, there's situations with false resistance levels where some people don't see the bigger picture
speakers
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He definitely makes some valid points, particularly when he discusses the amount of information one can absorb at one time. Less is more in my case. I may post something on the 'trading what I see' thread because it seems to be where the newer or non-profitable traders seem to hang out at the moment (thanks Goat).

There were 2 points he made that I found quite amusing:

"Once you find the solution, you won't buy anymore stuff from the gurus" - is he referring to your mugs, Peter? ;)

"After 300 years of use, there's been no proof that technical analysis works" - surely 300 years points to the opposite? Even I can see, by looking at the volume of money on the ladders on the pre-race horse markets, that some traders (using large stakes) use the support and resistance points as a guide to their actions. I do too some of the time - they are, at the least, a solid point from where to start a trade, depending on what you see happening.

I think it's unfortunate that he finishes the video by pretty much suggesting that his way is the only way. TBH, what with my full-time job, vegetable growing, cooking and drinking beer, I don't have time to read form! There's more than one way to skin a cat and, when I first started trading about 17 years ago, there weren't any videos to explain how to, or how not to, trade. I also never read anything about form for horses, tennis or cricket.

Finally, I found x1.25 to be about 'normal voice' speed.
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Realrocknrolla
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speakers wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:36 am
He definitely makes some valid points, particularly when he discusses the amount of information one can absorb at one time. Less is more in my case. I may post something on the 'trading what I see' thread because it seems to be where the newer or non-profitable traders seem to hang out at the moment (thanks Goat).

There were 2 points he made that I found quite amusing:

"Once you find the solution, you won't buy anymore stuff from the gurus" - is he referring to your mugs, Peter? ;)

"After 300 years of use, there's been no proof that technical analysis works" - surely 300 years points to the opposite? Even I can see, by looking at the volume of money on the ladders on the pre-race horse markets, that some traders (using large stakes) use the support and resistance points as a guide to their actions. I do too some of the time - they are, at the least, a solid point from where to start a trade, depending on what you see happening.

I think it's unfortunate that he finishes the video by pretty much suggesting that his way is the only way. TBH, what with my full-time job, vegetable growing, cooking and drinking beer, I don't have time to read form! There's more than one way to skin a cat and, when I first started trading about 17 years ago, there weren't any videos to explain how to, or how not to, trade. I also never read anything about form for horses, tennis or cricket.

Finally, I found x1.25 to be about 'normal voice' speed.
Brilliant.

Can i have a job at your place. I am fully qualified in 2 of the aspects. 🤣🤣🤣
speakers
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Ah, you may have misread my post. My job is very boring, the other things I mentioned are hobbies!
MAGTRADEUK
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Technical analysis, how many man years have been devoted to the plotting of lines on charts?
All seems a bit of hogwash to me, all those wobbly lines just tell you where prices have been, agree highs and lows can be useful, but depends on whats changed since those highs lows were made IMHO.

Many of these "systems" were back fitted to a chart, you see this a lot in the forex markets etc, where so called educators charge for a course that will give you and edge etc, hmm dont you think that GOLDMAN SACHS ET AL.. would have used such things by now.
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wearthefoxhat
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Euler wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:20 pm
goat68 wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:07 pm
I'm surprised, i've watched many of your videos MANY times!
If I put a partially naked women on the thumbnail and called it 'Three easy ways to make a risk free second income and pay off your debts tomorrow with this easy betting strategy' I would probably get 100,000's of views as that has the broadest appeal.
Reckon if you put partially naked Donald Trump in the thumbnail and included...

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Realrocknrolla
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speakers wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:56 am
Ah, you may have misread my post. My job is very boring, the other things I mentioned are hobbies!
Yeah i saw the comma when i put my windows 🤓 on! 😂
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Kai
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speakers wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:36 am
He definitely makes some valid points, particularly when he discusses the amount of information one can absorb at one time. Less is more in my case. I may post something on the 'trading what I see' thread because it seems to be where the newer or non-profitable traders seem to hang out at the moment (thanks Goat).

There were 2 points he made that I found quite amusing:

"Once you find the solution, you won't buy anymore stuff from the gurus" - is he referring to your mugs, Peter? ;)

"After 300 years of use, there's been no proof that technical analysis works" - surely 300 years points to the opposite? Even I can see, by looking at the volume of money on the ladders on the pre-race horse markets, that some traders (using large stakes) use the support and resistance points as a guide to their actions. I do too some of the time - they are, at the least, a solid point from where to start a trade, depending on what you see happening.

I think it's unfortunate that he finishes the video by pretty much suggesting that his way is the only way. TBH, what with my full-time job, vegetable growing, cooking and drinking beer, I don't have time to read form! There's more than one way to skin a cat and, when I first started trading about 17 years ago, there weren't any videos to explain how to, or how not to, trade. I also never read anything about form for horses, tennis or cricket.

Finally, I found x1.25 to be about 'normal voice' speed.
Good to see a post from a member after 7 years of forum absence :o

The amount of information one can absorb obviously depends whether a person is a fast learner or not, but I agree that it generally takes a bit of time for all the dust to settle so that dots can be properly connected and core foundations built. From experience, the mindset itself is vitally important here as well, a more humble and open mind is able to receive and absorb new information and thus learn an enormous amount from others if it wants to. If he's saying that his way (stats/form?) is the only way, that says a lot about his mindset and his willingness to learn.

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Why do some people get triggered in political threads and cause all sorts of drama? :)

I'm saying that not everyone necessarily cares about the truth, they prefer to be right instead, lest the unthinkable happens and the fragile ego breaks :shock: And not everyone has the need to correct others either, that would be fighting far too many losing battles. Picking your battles would be more prudent, just like on the markets.

It certainly wouldn't be the first time for someone to confuse schooling with education, and information with knowledge. Academics will be among the first ones to do it apparently.

If he looked below the surface he'd find proof everywhere, it's in the results of (sports) traders, but he apparently can't even get over the first hurdle and identify the top performers in this field. How many top performers care about stats and think that's the only way forward? From what I've seen, in general traders either look for volatility or value, and maybe speed advantage.

I think quants and statsmen etc face a proper uphill task with making technical analysis work because they can't quantify it, so it must be a myth. It's not really about "predictive powers" as he puts it, if trading is a game of risk management and if uncertainty and volatility is the name of the game then a probabilistic mindset is probably a requirement to play that game. The problem is that everyone starts off with a fear-based brain by default, so building a probability-based mind feels like such an impossible task.
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Euler
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I actually think it says a lot about the market.

Sceptics used to wind me up endlessly. Here I was slaving away working really hard to do something special and they were there, just taking pot shots. Then it dawned on my that that was probably the reason I was winning. People just belligerently argued against everything never taking anything on board and refusing to change their minds despite overwhelming evidence. Exactly the characteristics of bad trading in turns out.
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Euler
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One contradiction, amongst many, on this video is the book % stuff. The fact a sports market is framed with a 100% means it will form ranges and limits and also ensure that if you get a big steamer then that will also set off a drift somewhere.

The video is just a pitch as for 'Ash thinks it's not possible to trade horse racing pre-off in this manner' and that's his big error.
Trader Pat
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You make some good points there Kai.

I actually listened to the first hour or so. At the start he makes some valid points especially about 'fake gurus' as he calls them but in general most of the video is just a condescending rant. I can't stand that attitude of "I can't do something therefore its not possible". I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be able to pull a super model but that doesn't mean nobody else can.

I think its like you say some people need to quantify everything and will only get involved in a market if they can do that but I think its also about each persons attitude to risk. Trading a Class 1 race is easier than trading a Class 6 AW race because there's more information and more money in the market which itself translates into more information. When trading a race like we have on this evening for me it requires a more risk v reward approach because there's much less information to go on. And to take that approach you need to be much more comfortable with risk.
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ShaunWhite
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MAGTRADEUK wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:57 am
hmm dont you think that GOLDMAN SACHS ET AL.. would have used such things by now.
They do use TA though, I worked at Goldman's for a while and saw that the chartists were all in their 60 and 70s, because it's not a skill you pick up overnight. But basicaly TA 'works', in fact you wouldn't have time/price/vol based automation without it, but it's a massive oversimplification in a lively market and ought to be used more as an aide-mémoire rather than as a predictor in it's own right.

I think people get sour grapes about TA because it doesn't make decisions, it informs decisions. They expect X+Y=£ and they actually get a magic eye picture of an ink blot test.
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jimibt
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:25 pm
MAGTRADEUK wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:57 am
hmm dont you think that GOLDMAN SACHS ET AL.. would have used such things by now.
They expect X+Y=£ and they actually get a magic eye picture of an ink blot test.
Shaun - see, this is exactly what we've missed while you were watching Flanagan & Allen :lol:
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