Trading What I see !?

[speedyhamster]

Getting worse 14% wins now
So obviously this is not working, it does imply, and agrees with what someone told me, that all the price movements are random. So having a +3/-3 profit/loss, will be -ev, in fact anything will be -ev with commission.
It comes back to value, and I can't see how you can judge value other than via fundamentals (form, pace, runners, course,..), and someone told me on Slack that fundamentals is very advanced to be successful at. But how can you gain any value edge any other way? price movements are random, so you will never make any money...

there are several patterns (spikes, crossover points etc) that repeat over and over again, but where the random bits come in is that you cant assume the same traders/betters that made the patterns are active in the market currently. so can at anypoint behave differently, so trade what you see (you don't know when a slot machine will payout the jackpot, just that it will at some point), so 80% in your favour you don't know which 20 out of 100 will lose.

[Derek27]

My bad had just used practise mode on bfexplorer long ago, maybe betangel is better but it can never accurately predict how many orders ahead of you were pulled out.
Also it might not matter much at smaller stakes but betting £100 or £200 or betting in smaller markets like greyhound your money will have influence on the price, you might trigger a bot that puts a stake ahead of you etc
Can you get partially matched on betangel practise mode and its somewhat accurate? I would just get matched instantly whatever the amount
I believe minimum stake is more accurate and you can get your account locked for using practise mode excessively without ever using real money.

I was referring to my experience with practice mode on another application when I was starting trading. I haven't used BA for practice mode other than automation using small stakes. I know you can virtually queue bets and have them partially matched, but as you say it's useless for practising trading, and only stakes insignificant to the real money can accurately replicate matching.

[ShaunWhite]

someone told me, that all the price movements are random.

All markets are random, but individual markets are predictable.

The first "all" is the entire set of markets, a basket of all markets. there's no pattern that dominates if you look at 10,000 markets and it's essentially randomness. But each of those individually has a degree of predictability over shortish timeframes.

Bit of a shortcoming of the language, 'all' is everything and 'all' is, each of.

It's like, BSP is correct on all markets, but probably wrong on all markets. Back everything and you break even ie all are correct. But as we know all individual horses are probably running at the wrong bsp.

[Anbell]

Just to pick up on this one little piece:

question yourself about why you're laying a 3/1 horse at 3/1

I mostly agree with you that each bet should be considered individually and not part of a paired trade, but if you've got an open bet on a 3/1 chance and the market is 3/1, I reckon you should nearly always dump your bet, preferably at reverse / across the spread. Otherwise you've got commission and variance that you dont need.

If you didnt have the original back bet then you wouldnt lay at 3/1, so in some sense the bets are paired. ie it makes sense to place the second bet only because you've backed the first.

[speedyhamster]

I know you've told me this thing about not thinking about it being open & close, but you're essentially letting it go inplay, but that's actually fine in the long run as long as you've got an idea you open'd at "value" I guess?

i think the MASTER plan is that it's matched pre race with the intention of gaining value as a result. and that means letting it run as a straight bet.

yeah, but what if it loses?

an example back Red Rum £200 @ 6.0., lay Red Rum £200 @ 5.0 instead of hedging let it go in play, if Red Rum wins you have a good payout, if loses you lose £0

[goat68]

Thanks for all these explanations, it is making a little bit of sense.
I've ditched todays bot, it was c**p!
Got a new experimental one lined up for tomorrow. I won't say too much as i'm not expecting much, but in essence it evaluates using my own "measure" best value and worst "value", £2 stakes.

[speedyhamster]

trader puts £50 total on a series of trades that statistically should net a profit, but his day goes like this win win lose win lose lose lose, he loses £25, he ends up getting frustrated that he has lost £25, starts blaming the markets, changes his trading plan etc.

the same trader goes to the bar puts £50 in the slot machine comes away with £25 (loses £25) and comes away having enjoyed the slots with no worries about losing the £25

what is the difference?

[Trader724]

It's like, BSP is correct on all markets, but probably wrong on all markets. Back everything and you break even ie all are correct. But as we know all individual horses are probably running at the wrong bsp.

BSP will almost always be wrong, sometimes it is good value sometimes it is bad value, and to the same extent. That's why we'll be break-even in the long run betting at BSP, not because it's the right price.

Now that I have some free time I want to explain something that I failed in the previous posts. When I said that I was not interested in value, I meant that although I place a initial bet that has bad value(I wouldn't know it) , I trade it later with one with good value. I think that's what trading is. So one bet had bad value and the other good value, it also happens that both have good value or both have bad value, although less often, but it is not absolutely necessary for both to have good value as long as I trade.
If I'm straight betting then I just have to choose bets with good value.

I know what Liam says, I agree that it is more advantageous to try to make only value bets, but not all of us can afford high liabilities so we eliminate them by trading and we are satisfied instead with a lower profit.

[napshnap]

I don't really get it, everyone goes on about not letting trades go inplay... but here we are...?

I told you, guys.

...
Remember too that a major factor in the size of your profit is turnover, and a single "open" and "close" will only ever turnover a fraction of what a strategy that's making multiple bets either side can do.
...

This can be a bad advice for newbies who can't afford big profit/loss variation and who need clear and precise indication that their ways of trading are profitable.
What do you think about final hedging by SP? It may solve this problem, despite there are some pitfalls, ofc.

[napshnap]

Hi all.
...
Am I getting ahead of myself? Is 5 months too soon to jump on real stakes of £50-£250? Does my recent progress signify that I have truly made progress or could it be a false dawn?
...

I can say that instant doubling-tripling my stakes influences my manual trading negatively. My bots can handle that, I can't.

[Trader724]

Hi all.
...
Am I getting ahead of myself? Is 5 months too soon to jump on real stakes of £50-£250? Does my recent progress signify that I have truly made progress or could it be a false dawn?
...

I can say that instant doubling-tripling my stakes influences my manual trading negatively. My bots can handle that, I can't.

The higher the stakes, the higher the probability that your bets will not get fully matched and your profitability decreases.

[napshnap]

Hi all.
...
Am I getting ahead of myself? Is 5 months too soon to jump on real stakes of £50-£250? Does my recent progress signify that I have truly made progress or could it be a false dawn?
...

I can say that instant doubling-tripling my stakes influences my manual trading negatively. My bots can handle that, I can't.

The higher the stakes, the higher the probability that your bets will not get fully matched and your profitability decreases.

You see, even if I know exactly that market will eat through my bets without a problem, I'm still experiencing psychological discomfort cause I'll have to adapt to new bet size.

[napshnap]

So, we can conclude that best thing betfair player can do is to find and systematically exploit market's inefficiencies: fatfinger guy messed up, bomber guy throws out his kks, bookies balanced their book - you should be there satisfying their demand.
Great, we "cracked it". Move to the next problem .

[beermonsterman]

You lot have all gone wild since I been gone took me ages to catch up
All that talk about value ETC ETC has blew my head off
How come I can turn up to a market take one look at all the runners prices then a quick gander at traded volume then a little topping of graph Viewing .......I can then make my assumption of where things are going to end up and most of the time I get it spot on ?
What I'm saying is I have no idea how to find value so I guess value has nothing to do with my trading the
pre race markets
So in a nutshell would you say I'm just gambling or does value mean nothing to pre race trades and if it does I must be leaving a shit load on the table
I like to add my 2 pence in

[goat68]

You lot have all gone wild since I been gone took me ages to catch up
All that talk about value ETC ETC has blew my head off
How come I can turn up to a market take one look at all the runners prices then a quick gander at traded volume then a little topping of graph Viewing .......I can then make my assumption of where things are going to end up and most of the time I get it spot on ?
What I'm saying is I have no idea how to find value so I guess value has nothing to do with my trading the
pre race markets
So in a nutshell would you say I'm just gambling or does value mean nothing to pre race trades and if it does I must be leaving a shit load on the table
I like to add my 2 pence in

You're a "steamer" guy, so I guess what they're saying above is you basically back at "value" as you have determined the price at that time is value, ie.the market is actually pricing it far further down... You back Red Rum at 2.75 as you see it steaming as you have read the market as probably pricing it at 2.0, so you have bought great "value" at 2.75.