Alex you wanted trading advice.....all successful traders either consciously or unconsciously (because it's how they're wired) ask themselves the following.
1.How certain am I ?
2.How certain am I that my estimate of #1 is right?
Enlightenment occurs when you realise how low they both actually are.
I can't resist a quote because I'm a such a pseud

, I heard it tonight and thought of you, how sad.
George Bernard Shaw to a friend..... "
I wish I was as certain about anything as you are about everything"
... and he wasn't being complementary.
