Profitable strategy for sale

[decomez6]

Yep if it's biased towards blacks you should bet on black not red. But still not martingale style.

Gamblers fallacy noted
But I argue from a point of vantage. Is there any time when the cards are stack in your favour ?
Of course.
You are not martingaling the EV, ( which is absolutely independent) .. it’s the prevailing conditions , in short trading what you see , something like order flow.. top range, resistance . Support, vwap , correlation etc.
When the conditions are right , the odds are in your favour but that doesn’t change the expected value of any price movement outcome .

As you say given time , everything that must happen will happen. Now let’s assume that the fill rate is 100% , liquidity 100% backers and layers at equal amounts , this will still not stop prices stalling and overshooting at crossover points. FOMO and STOP loss hunts, will ensure that price movement is biased towards one way or another and also the pay offs are well structured to favour the layer than the backer .
Now if you took red on roulette table and I took black , the only winner is the house/ exchange.. due to commission/ house edge .. but if one of us took a strategically advantageous position at a crossover point ..things change . But the expected values remain the same.
Hope that makes sense.

There is no crossover point on a roulette table.

Ha !
But there are bell curves/ EV/ p values/ house edges.
And you don’t have to worry about fill rate where
Your martingaled orders won’t be filled.

[Anbell]

But there are bell curves/ EV/ p values/ house edges.

Yeah, and you backing red has a negative EV.

[decomez6]

But there are bell curves/ EV/ p values/ house edges.

Yeah, and you backing red has a negative EV.

The EV. Is 50/50 .... payout .
And with a table limit on a roulette table , you can only martingale it up to 9 times , before you hit the table limit and anything else is a loss.
But assuming you see a 30 blacks in a row and you cover the green 0 ( house edge/ betfair commission) it’s very likely the next spin will give you a green or a red .. and it’s highly unlikely that it will take another 9 spins before you hit your red/ green.

[Anbell]

But there are bell curves/ EV/ p values/ house edges.

Yeah, and you backing red has a negative EV.

The EV. Is 50/50 .... payout .
And with a table limit on a roulette table , you can only martingale it up to 9 times , before you hit the table limit and anything else is a loss.
But assuming you see a 30 blacks in a row and you cover the green 0 ( house edge/ betfair commission) it’s very likely the next spin will give you a green or a red .. and it’s highly unlikely that it will take another 9 spins before you hit your red/ green.

It doesnt matter if you see one or a gazillion blacks in a row. It doesnt make a red "very likely" on the next spin.

[Trader724]

Now if you took red on roulette table and I took black , the only winner is the house/ exchange.. due to commission/ house edge .. but if one of us took a strategically advantageous position at a crossover point ..things change . But the expected values remain the same.
Hope that makes sense.

The only way to beat the roulette is with a single bet, then never play again. But you better not play at all because the reward is not proportional to the risk.
On the exchanges, if you position yourself where you need to at the right time, you can take advantage of the value created by those who make mistakes.
As long as people make mistakes they will create an edge for others.

[decomez6]

Yeah, and you backing red has a negative EV.

The EV. Is 50/50 .... payout .
And with a table limit on a roulette table , you can only martingale it up to 9 times , before you hit the table limit and anything else is a loss.
But assuming you see a 30 blacks in a row and you cover the green 0 ( house edge/ betfair commission) it’s very likely the next spin will give you a green or a red .. and it’s highly unlikely that it will take another 9 spins before you hit your red/ green.

It doesnt matter if you see one or a gazillion blacks in a row. It doesnt make a red "very likely" on the next spin.

Context/ background / history/ orderflow/ support/ resistance/ vwap / Fibonacci/range bottoms-tops/correlation.... are you discounting all of that.
The number of times you flip a coin will give you a probability and because no body is forcing you to bet at a particular point , you choose your entry accordingly.so in short .. the house has its edge .. you have time without decay.
It’s all about timing.

[decomez6]

Now if you took red on roulette table and I took black , the only winner is the house/ exchange.. due to commission/ house edge .. but if one of us took a strategically advantageous position at a crossover point ..things change . But the expected values remain the same.
Hope that makes sense.

The only way to beat the roulette is with a single bet, then never play again. But you better not play at all because the reward is not proportional to the risk.
On the exchanges, if you position yourself where you need to at the right time, you can take advantage of the value created by those who make mistakes.
As long as people make mistakes they will create an edge for others.

direct from Albeit Einstein ‘s. Roulette rule book.
But again Albert failed his quantum physics exam .

[Anbell]

Context/ background / history/ orderflow/ support/ resistance/ vwap / Fibonacci/range bottoms-tops/correlation.... are you discounting all of that.

I'm not discounting it. I'm ignoring it.

Your roulette wheel doesnt care order flow.

Or Fibonacci.

Or history.

Or bottoms.

Or VWAP.

Or support.

Or timing.

[Lutruwita]

The biggest takeaway from this is: has Goat really lost 5k on Betfair?

[goat68]

The biggest takeaway from this is: has Goat really lost 5k on Betfair?

No, not sure how you got to that?
Net year loss+costs (ba sub, education costs..) = -£700

[Lutruwita]

The biggest takeaway from this is: has Goat really lost 5k on Betfair?

No, not sure how you got to that?
Net year loss+costs (ba sub, education costs..) = -£700

Thank goodness!

[decomez6]

Context/ background / history/ orderflow/ support/ resistance/ vwap / Fibonacci/range bottoms-tops/correlation.... are you discounting all of that.

I'm not discounting it. I'm ignoring it.

Your roulette wheel doesnt care order flow.

Or Fibonacci.

Or history.

Or bottoms.

Or VWAP.

Or support.

Or timing.

igorance is a bliss. ...my AVATAR bears witness of a `stay calm and carry on ` adrenaline junkie, look at it closely ...how does red and black provide so much excitment without ORDER.
the roulette wheel is not expected to give you 36 balcks in a row , if it does there is fundamentally something wrong with the mechanics . thats not to say it wont happen, its called a bias wheel.

[Anbell]

Context/ background / history/ orderflow/ support/ resistance/ vwap / Fibonacci/range bottoms-tops/correlation.... are you discounting all of that.

I'm not discounting it. I'm ignoring it.

Your roulette wheel doesnt care order flow.

Or Fibonacci.

Or history.

Or bottoms.

Or VWAP.

Or support.

Or timing.

igorance is a bliss. ...my AVATAR bears witness of a `stay calm and carry on ` adrenaline junkie, look at it closely ...how does red and black provide so much excitment without ORDER.
the roulette wheel is not expected to give you 36 balcks in a row , if it does there is fundamentally something wrong with the mechanics . thats not to say it wont happen, its called a bias wheel.

Going martingdale against a biased roulette wheel is certainly junkie-like behaviour. It all makes sense now. Thanks for the chat.. (apologies to everyone)

[decomez6]

I'm not discounting it. I'm ignoring it.

Your roulette wheel doesnt care order flow.

Or Fibonacci.

Or history.

Or bottoms.

Or VWAP.

Or support.

Or timing.

igorance is a bliss. ...my AVATAR bears witness of a `stay calm and carry on ` adrenaline junkie, look at it closely ...how does red and black provide so much excitment without ORDER.
the roulette wheel is not expected to give you 36 balcks in a row , if it does there is fundamentally something wrong with the mechanics . thats not to say it wont happen, its called a bias wheel.

Going martingdale against a biased roulette wheel is certainly junkie-like behaviour.

junkie stepping all the way..
set up a null hypothesis to ensure a fair starting point. it will assume that the results are fair and unbiased . then run the historical records of a biased wheel against the master tape.
now you have a reference point.
it is this results that will allow you to spot a biased wheel . its like an xray of a junkd up happy system / compared to a sad compromised system ...you will definately note the difference.

[decomez6]

Thanks for the chat.. (apologies to everyone)

not at all, stay well catch you on the next one
cheers