bet in play bot help
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hello i was wondering if somone could help me i would like to create a bot in play which will place a back bet of £10 on the first horse to trade at odds of 1.80 in play.
Have a look at this viewtopic.php?p=96559#p96559 and do the reverse.master4eva wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 6:48 amhello i was wondering if somone could help me i would like to create a bot in play which will place a back bet of £10 on the first horse to trade at odds of 1.80 in play.
As a strategy, I'll wave at you as I pass the poor house. That bet will definitely be matched if the horse goes on to lose. The bet may be matched if the horse goes on to win. You will need an amazing strike rate - good luck.
While I'm at it - have a read of the guidance - viewtopic.php?p=265873#p265873
Write down this stategy in your google doc and diary you are keeping. See what happens. If it is loser, don't just consign it to the dust bin, write down that it is a loser and why it turned out to be a loser - form your own views about why it turned out to be a loser. If it is a winner, you keep it, but you right down why it is a winner and you keep going.
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- Posts: 11
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thank you for your reply and help i will have a look at the links you sent, what happend was i have been watching the aus horse racing over right in-play and almost every time the first horse went short in price in play (1.50) it went on to win the race, so i was thinking if i could have a bot which only placed a bet once them odds were reached i could maybe make a profit but i guess the problem would be getting matched as the priced would go pasted my entry point to fast in play?
- ShaunWhite
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Try to switch your thinking round. It's an exchange so rather than looking for an opportunity to bet, look for opportunities where those who are betting (backing or laying) are losing to you. 95% of people who try Betfair go on to be long term losers so think about what's making them losers and how you could capitalise on that.
- ShaunWhite
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...liquidity in Aus in-running markets is so low that all the time and effort you put into it might not actually make you much money. Your profits generally will be edge * stake * opportunity. Even with a good edge and lots of Aus racing, if you can't turnover enough cash it's not going to make much money especially given the higher Aus commission rates.
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yes what you say is very true, the rates on the aus markets at some courses are sky high!! and liquidity very low its a shame because there is so much racing, i wonder if one day we could have a shared pool with everyone?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:43 pm...liquidity in Aus in-running markets is so low that all the time and effort you put into it might not actually make you much money. Your profits generally will be edge * stake * opportunity. Even with a good edge and lots of Aus racing, if you can't turnover enough cash it's not going to make much money especially given the higher Aus commission rates.
- ShaunWhite
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It's weak because in-running betting isn't allowed in Aus.master4eva wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:06 pmI wonder if one day we could have a shared pool with everyone?
So logically switching it around, laying if under 1.8 sounds plausible, and one of my early aus bots did that as it showed longer term profit, probably due to this sort of thinking...ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:38 pmTry to switch your thinking round. It's an exchange so rather than looking for an opportunity to bet, look for opportunities where those who are betting (backing or laying) are losing to you. 95% of people who try Betfair go on to be long term losers so think about what's making them losers and how you could capitalise on that.
However, although being better than backing, it suffered long term as the market goes through phases when horses all seem to win, and the heavy net affect of aus commission meant it was also long term net loser, just not quite as bad as backing was!
So back you lose, lay you lose,...what's the answer nobody knows (except for 5%!)
This is not trueShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:54 amIt's weak because in-running betting isn't allowed in Aus.master4eva wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:06 pmI wonder if one day we could have a shared pool with everyone?
OF COURSE this is true. I'm surprised that you haven't internalized this already.
If it was that easy everyone would be doing it, and the 5% would be the 95%.
And how does that make sense?
YES! I was just re-stating...
The answer is sort of obvious, do the opposite of what the 95% are doing...
Peter has a great video on it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlmMKrqFz8ggoat68 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:34 amYES! I was just re-stating...
The answer is sort of obvious, do the opposite of what the 95% are doing...
I know all this, yet actually knowing what the "opposite" is, is actually quite difficult...
- ShaunWhite
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? Sorry. I really thought that was the case.Anbell wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:19 amThis is not trueShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:54 amIt's weak because in-running betting isn't allowed in Aus.master4eva wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:06 pmI wonder if one day we could have a shared pool with everyone?
- ShaunWhite
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By opposite I mean offering prices instead of taking prices. Yes it has the effect of backs becoming lays and visa versa but it's all about the price.
It's far fewer than 5% who pull that off. The 5% is anyone longer term profitable incl all the straight backers on other sports. I'd imaging profitable 'traders' would be half of that?