Oh okay… I was of the opinion that BSP, or just before the off would be the point where you know if you’ve got value & how much.
Trading What I see !?
Well if you’re betting into a book like GH’s that can be 115% + then the value is somewhere in that 15% + is it not?. By time you get to post you would surely know by the move for or against you how much value you have or haven’t.
The ratings or speed etc has surely been discounted by everyone (or the market) by the off time. Surely that information is somewhat useful in a book that is greater than 101 or 102% ?.
So my theory if only like £800 has been bet on a given dog, it's not going to be that accurate bsp. Anyhow my model based on form, ratings, speed etc.. typically differs from BSP, hence why I think there's value, typically offer taken few mins before the off, and actually typically the price doesn't change an awful lot up til the off..
Seems i'm clueless as usual!
I “sort of” understand your theory because obviously there will be inefficient markets within a huge amount of markets but surely it’s easier to find value when the market is generally not efficient?.goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 6:58 pmSo my theory if only like £800 has been bet on a given dog, it's not going to be that accurate bsp. Anyhow my model based on form, ratings, speed etc.. typically differs from BSP, hence why I think there's value, typically offer taken few mins before the off, and actually typically the price doesn't change an awful lot up til the off..
Seems i'm clueless as usual!
I thought that's what I am doing? maybe i've read that wrong... you're saying dog markets can be inefficient, and I am finding value in those market according to my model, that's easier maybe yes, so what am i doing wrong?
Ah yeah, I probably shouldn’t of used the word “generally”. Surely it’s easier to find value in markets that aren’t efficient… I.e 110 or 115% +
You may have noticed some conversations on here that talk about having a positive ev with a £2 stake but when you scale up to £5 it loses its +ev. Of course unless you’ve cracked it like Memphis and can get huge stakes through.
What odds are you laying at? It takes a long time to establish an edge in this kind of betting, by which point you might have no money left. There is variance in BSP on an individual level, but at least it helps you measure if you're likely to be onto something, without having lost 100 days in a row.goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 5:28 pmA mere -£55 down so far today...
It seems previous dog form and speed is no indication of future value....
I was so sure i was picking value, but net losers seem to be getting the better of me, lay dogs i think are significant value and they go on to win....!
They say you need to find something others dont have, i think there's some secret information on some of these dogs, you look at previous form and current price and think that's far too short lay it...then it wins.....
If you're laying around evens then it's pretty easy to estimate what the loss/win is going to look like (expected versus actual and the streaks).
I'm confused by this correlation of book% and market efficiency... ? If you look at say 5mins out the book maybe say 110%/90%, but the money on offer at best prices is of the order of £5 ! prices have big gaps, and yes value somewhere in the middle usually. However sometimes, my model takes the value straight away, but then that probably implies i'm wrong, otherwise i'm the only one in the market who has got it right, which is doubtful!jamesg46 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 7:19 pmAh yeah, I probably shouldn’t of used the word “generally”. Surely it’s easier to find value in markets that aren’t efficient… I.e 110 or 115% +
You may have noticed some conversations on here that talk about having a positive ev with a £2 stake but when you scale up to £5 it loses its +ev. Of course unless you’ve cracked it like Memphis and can get huge stakes through.
Anyway, i'm probably confusing efficiency and whether the prices represent true probabilities, which I suspect is different?
Anything I think shows value, so from 2 to 10 !Tetras wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 7:28 pmWhat odds are you laying at? It takes a long time to establish an edge in this kind of betting, by which point you might have no money left. There is variance in BSP on an individual level, but at least it helps you measure if you're likely to be onto something, without having lost 100 days in a row.goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 5:28 pmA mere -£55 down so far today...
It seems previous dog form and speed is no indication of future value....
I was so sure i was picking value, but net losers seem to be getting the better of me, lay dogs i think are significant value and they go on to win....!
They say you need to find something others dont have, i think there's some secret information on some of these dogs, you look at previous form and current price and think that's far too short lay it...then it wins.....
If you're laying around evens then it's pretty easy to estimate what the loss/win is going to look like (expected versus actual and the streaks).
Wow, I'd really hate to be laying that high. How long do you expect it to take, to assess if your model has an edge?goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 7:34 pmAnything I think shows value, so from 2 to 10 !Tetras wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 7:28 pmWhat odds are you laying at? It takes a long time to establish an edge in this kind of betting, by which point you might have no money left. There is variance in BSP on an individual level, but at least it helps you measure if you're likely to be onto something, without having lost 100 days in a row.goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 5:28 pmA mere -£55 down so far today...
It seems previous dog form and speed is no indication of future value....
I was so sure i was picking value, but net losers seem to be getting the better of me, lay dogs i think are significant value and they go on to win....!
They say you need to find something others dont have, i think there's some secret information on some of these dogs, you look at previous form and current price and think that's far too short lay it...then it wins.....
If you're laying around evens then it's pretty easy to estimate what the loss/win is going to look like (expected versus actual and the streaks).
I’m confused as to why you’re confused, but in all honesty it could be the booze. The markets are efficient “over time”. They’ll have inefficiency at 100% over a big sample of markets but at 115% the inefficiency is always there. The problem you’ll have is getting your orders matched and how much…. The gaps fill as people chase the inefficiency surely?.goat68 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 7:32 pmI'm confused by this correlation of book% and market efficiency... ? If you look at say 5mins out the book maybe say 110%/90%, but the money on offer at best prices is of the order of £5 ! prices have big gaps, and yes value somewhere in the middle usually. However sometimes, my model takes the value straight away, but then that probably implies i'm wrong, otherwise i'm the only one in the market who has got it right, which is doubtful!jamesg46 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 7:19 pmAh yeah, I probably shouldn’t of used the word “generally”. Surely it’s easier to find value in markets that aren’t efficient… I.e 110 or 115% +
You may have noticed some conversations on here that talk about having a positive ev with a £2 stake but when you scale up to £5 it loses its +ev. Of course unless you’ve cracked it like Memphis and can get huge stakes through.
Anyway, i'm probably confusing efficiency and whether the prices represent true probabilities, which I suspect is different?