price : yesShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 3:17 pmIt's tricky to compare these lines with when they don't have date on the x axis. The upswings and downswings don't line up?
Btw do you sort them by other characteristics? Eg price, race grade, time of day, amount matched, signal strength etc?
Time of day seems to be a factor in dogs more than horses. Very different participants in the afternoon compared to the evening. Mid afternoon isn't very good for me, it's all pros and savvy pensioners. . I used to do best in 'blue collar lunchtime' 12-2 when builders used to go to the bookies for a warm up but those days seem to have gone.
So you're right, with £20 I had 50 bet size order_violations over the 6months, so far with £10 stake i've had about 50% more, but it doesn't seem to have affected the bottom line...cheers!ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 3:09 pmStill don't see why you can't use £10 liability. If you stake £100 and get £1 matched its no different to staking £5 and getting £1 matched? Staking £20 won't give you more matches >=£10 than staking £10. You'll only get what you're given.goat68 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:31 ami'm actually using just above min Betfair stakes
i'm staking £20 back+lay liability, and my average market win is £1.94, avg loss -£2.54
so for example, for a 5.0 priced dog, i'm staking £5, if I stake anything lower towards £10 liability when I get a few quid unmatched say only £8 liability, then I can't easily hedge.
I thought it was just about all "bot" volume nowadays on dogs?!ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 3:50 pmTime of day seems to be a factor in dogs more than horses. Very different participants in the afternoon compared to the evening. Mid afternoon isn't very good for me, it's all pros and savvy pensioners. . I used to do best in 'blue collar lunchtime' 12-2 when builders used to go to the bookies for a warm up but those days seem to have gone.
I'm not a fan of 'I thought'. I'm a quant trader so I only do evidence.
the give away surely is when an 8:12am Henlow race reaches 15k for scheduled start, but the track is frozen, noone is at the track as start is delayed until 11amShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:59 pmI'm not a fan of 'I thought'. I'm a quant trader so I only do evidence.
It would be pretty impossible to work out though to be fair. But with the api data you can look at the number of market changes and total vol over time to get the avg bet size at various stages of the market. Imo small avg bet stakes or lots of bets means bots and fewer bets or a higher avg stake would be more punters, but that's only from a personal perspective as I bot a lot of small amounts but would have proper money on if I was betting just a handful a day.
Anyway all that aside if something could be a factor (ie not dog eye colour) then it's always worth a quick sort to look for a pattern.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRbrssa78Pk. 4:35minShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:59 pmI'm not a fan of 'I thought'. I'm a quant trader so I only do evidence.
It would be pretty impossible to work out though to be fair. But with the api data you can look at the number of market changes and total vol over time to get the avg bet size at various stages of the market. Imo small avg bet stakes or lots of bets means bots and fewer bets or a higher avg stake would be more punters, but that's only from a personal perspective as I bot a lot of small amounts but would have proper money on if I was betting just a handful a day.
Anyway all that aside if something could be a factor (ie not dog eye colour) then it's always worth a quick sort to look for a pattern.
There's always bookies and savvy punters looking at the crazy prices those bots might be offering... or are prepared to take too .. ..situations like you've described are a value punters dream so I don't know why that geezer in the video doesn't think they're interested. Next he'll be saying there's no real 11am money on a horse race that doesn't start till 3.
Doesn't that sentence say... A year to understand how it works, not a year to find out if it works?
Not spending is easier than earning!
