Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

also factoring in seasonal variation may have an influence.

Dog racing doesn't really have much seasonality, Pups are born all year round whereas foals tend to be born in early spring, any later and it's disadvantageous because all horses have an official birthday of 1st Jan. There isn't really a time when you get a new crop of dogs as you do with horses, or a time when the code changes like from NH to Flat.

Starting to look like my edge has disappeared, i'm going to turn to paper trading from 1st Feb...

Rather annoyed to say the least, just shows finding patterns historically is useless. I'm honestly thinking the best way is to find all the patterns that occur in the last 6months and then do the opposite going forward...

[arch4672]

Starting to look like my edge has disappeared,

Or you never had an edge in the first place?

[ruthlessimon]

finding patterns historically is useless

Walk us through how this was developed

[goat68]

finding patterns historically is useless

Walk us through how this was developed

So there's quite a long path overall, but essentially:
- Watching uk greyhound races in the evening, seeing how they play out
- Reading about what makes up the form of a dog
- Created a web scraper to gather form data for the past year
- Created a price "model"
- Played with backtesting a straight "value" trade from the model, this simple approach didn't show +EV
- Came up with multiple ideas of what might be a +EV outcome based on unique "setup" ideas
- Create strategies based these ideas and trying to get on a decent price, then hedging at close to BSP
- Backtested many many many ideas over 2 samples, 1 month A sample, 6month B sample
- Eventually found an idea that actually made sense and showed a half decent +EV
- From several parameters on it I "tuned" it

[goat68]

finding patterns historically is useless

Walk us through how this was developed

I could describe on 1 sentence what my "edge" is... but I won't just in case it's still there! But that gives you an indication it's quite simple.

[ruthlessimon]

I could describe on 1 sentence what my "edge" is... but I won't just in case it's still there! But that gives you an indication it's quite simple.

It's up to you. I completely understand why you might not want to go into the details, but knowing the core logic & parameters would be useful. There's plenty of very good doctors on here, but they need to know the ALL the symptoms before making a diagnosis.

If you don't wanna do it publicly hit the big guys PMs, aint got nothing to lose & everything to gain

[The Silk Run]

Personally, I think G is over-complicating things !!! This, the classis modus operandi for novice traders who rather not focus on developing the basic skills and progress, but a classic race to the bottom.
We are now focused on Greyhound markets, up to six animals. It really isn't that difficult ....

[CallumPerry]

finding patterns historically is useless

Walk us through how this was developed

Simon..PNG

Maybe just confirmation bias playing tricks on me but i'm seeing some similarities in our strategies Simon. I believe this is November-November for me.

[goat68]

finding patterns historically is useless

Walk us through how this was developed

Simon..PNG

Maybe just confirmation bias playing tricks on me but i'm seeing some similarities in our strategies Simon. I believe this is November-November for me.

That is very similar, also what looks similar is a poor december to January...

[wearthefoxhat]

Walk us through how this was developed

Simon..PNG

Maybe just confirmation bias playing tricks on me but i'm seeing some similarities in our strategies Simon. I believe this is November-November for me.

That is very similar, also what looks similar is a poor december to January...

Some tracks show a bias on the inside/outside during wet weather.

I remember good ole White City back in the day. It was a grass track, so when it rained, the inside "drainage" penalised the railers.

Add in the recent pictures of a worker overly watering the inside of the Romford dog track, (just in front of the traps), there's always something out of your control that can occur and skew results.

[goat68]

also factoring in seasonal variation may have an influence.

Dog racing doesn't really have much seasonality, Pups are born all year round whereas foals tend to be born in early spring, any later and it's disadvantageous because all horses have an official birthday of 1st Jan. There isn't really a time when you get a new crop of dogs as you do with horses, or a time when the code changes like from NH to Flat.

Seasonality could be in several forms, as foxwood points out "weather" has an impact, i'm also guessing that given a high proportion of volume is bots, then they'll be a certain degree of forced seasonality due to botters thinking there is seasonality and creating it themselves!

[ShaunWhite]

i'm also guessing that given a high proportion of volume is bots, then they'll be a certain degree of forced seasonality due to botters thinking there is seasonality and creating it themselves!

I think this is how religions start, a phenomenon explained in a way that requires a fanciful belief system rather than any hard evidence.

What changes have you seen that demonstrate seasonality?
I'd like to know so I can make these changes that in themselves change the market in a way that makes those changes profitable.

[goat68]

i'm also guessing that given a high proportion of volume is bots, then they'll be a certain degree of forced seasonality due to botters thinking there is seasonality and creating it themselves!

I think this is how religions start, a phenomenon explained in a way that requires a fanciful belief system rather than any hard evidence.

What changes have you seen that demonstrate seasonality?
I'd like to know so I can make these changes that in themselves change the market in a way that makes those changes profitable.

I think as foxwood stated weather is seasonal and affects trap bias. Also Callum's pnl shows a significant trend change over the year. Markets are driven by opinion, so not hard evidence, but even Peter said recently January is a poor time for markets...

[ruthlessimon]

i'm seeing some similarities in our strategies Simon. I believe this is November-November for me.

Is there a problem with it Cal?

So long as it hasn't been super overfitted it's worth a punt imo. Just keep an eye on the max drawdown & mentally commit £750-500ish as lost (or drop the stake)

[wearthefoxhat]

i'm also guessing that given a high proportion of volume is bots, then they'll be a certain degree of forced seasonality due to botters thinking there is seasonality and creating it themselves!

I think this is how religions start, a phenomenon explained in a way that requires a fanciful belief system rather than any hard evidence.

What changes have you seen that demonstrate seasonality?
I'd like to know so I can make these changes that in themselves change the market in a way that makes those changes profitable.

I think as foxwood stated weather is seasonal and affects trap bias. Also Callum's pnl shows a significant trend change over the year. Markets are driven by opinion, so not hard evidence, but even Peter said recently January is a poor time for markets...

What if you excluded January/February from any dog trading. Would that improve the overall result(s)? Probably considered backfitting, but if there is sufficient evidence thats the results are poor, then it's an easy decision.

In other markets like horse racing, the early parts of the flat/jump seasons are always tricky, so during those times, switching over to dog racing seems sensible. January/Feb is a nice time for jump racing as preparation for the big festivals in March/April are the focus. Also the Flat season starts around then so best avoided.

That's how I would plan a campaign with seasonality in mind, dog racing could be done the same way.