Absolute newb

[mcgillsbets]

hey guys so been match betting for awhile and decided to try some trading strategies, just the standard scalping on football and tennis. I had £3000 and started of doing small trades to get the feel of it. i noticed that i could scalp the end of matches that were absolute certs ie last point of tennis match when the person was a few games ahead already. I got cocky after a day of doing this and making about 1000 in profit, until I didn't get lucky and the market changed and i got caught.

So my question is, what is the best strategy to use to help minimise the risk of a bigger loss?

[The Silk Run]

hey guys so been match betting for awhile and decided to try some trading strategies, just the standard scalping on football and tennis. I had £3000 and started of doing small trades to get the feel of it. i noticed that i could scalp the end of matches that were absolute certs ie last point of tennis match when the person was a few games ahead already. I got cocky after a day of doing this and making about 1000 in profit, until I didn't get lucky and the market changed and i got caught.

So my question is, what is the best strategy to use to help minimise the risk of a bigger loss?

SMALL stakes darling. And if your considering Trading then scalping is the obvious flight path ...
GOOD LUCK
Minnie LAI

[gazuty]

hey guys so been match betting for awhile and decided to try some trading strategies, just the standard scalping on football and tennis. I had £3000 and started of doing small trades to get the feel of it. i noticed that i could scalp the end of matches that were absolute certs ie last point of tennis match when the person was a few games ahead already. I got cocky after a day of doing this and making about 1000 in profit, until I didn't get lucky and the market changed and i got caught.

So my question is, what is the best strategy to use to help minimise the risk of a bigger loss?

Absolute certs ... that is called picking up money in front of the steamroller. Have a read of the guidance - viewtopic.php?p=265873#p265873 and the section "The steam roller""

[Derek27]

hey guys so been match betting for awhile and decided to try some trading strategies, just the standard scalping on football and tennis. I had £3000 and started of doing small trades to get the feel of it. i noticed that i could scalp the end of matches that were absolute certs ie last point of tennis match when the person was a few games ahead already. I got cocky after a day of doing this and making about 1000 in profit, until I didn't get lucky and the market changed and i got caught.

So my question is, what is the best strategy to use to help minimise the risk of a bigger loss?

As you found out there's no such thing as an absolute cert. Sure, they usually win at short prices but that's factored into the price. You've got a lot to learn but the best strategies are ones where you've got a worthwhile gain and limited risk. When I'm trading tennis I'm more likely to do the opposite - lay the shortie and grab a drift if he/she gets broken.

[jamesg46]

You have a strategy. Luck plays no part, being cocky does.

No amount of wisdom will change that. Be cocky in this arena, you’ll get knocked financially out.

There is no set game (strategy), just like there is no set game (strategy) for each and every sporting event, be it a football game or an MMA fight… athlete’s, teams or traders know their strategy before the event and they execute it to the plan… win or lose. Fuck with that plan though and you’re a dead cert to get rolled over by all of us.

Being cocky is a lack of discipline… I’d love to play against you all my life… it would save me a lot of bother creating smoke and mirrors.

Good luck pal, bring your Vaseline for a few years… hopefully though I’ve saved you from a gangbang.

[jamesg46]

Definitely do not go down the rabbit hole of “edges”… that’s for people who believe that external controls internal. Those people are stuck on a constant roundabout.

[jamesedwards]

It's all about value.

1.01 with a 109/110 chance is great value and you will make good money in the long term.
1.01 with a 89/90 chance is terrible value and you will lose a fortune.

Both the above strategies will look like they are winners early on, but you will lose long term unless you have value.

Capture33.PNG

To find the value bets you need an edge that puts you ahead of the market. Examples of an edge could include insider knowledge, data crunching, faster pics, automation etc.

[jamesg46]

It's all about value.

1.01 with a 109/110 chance is great value and you will make good money in the long term.
1.01 with a 89/90 chance is terrible value and you will lose a fortune.

Both the above strategies will look like they are winners early on, but you will lose long term unless you have value.

Capture33.PNG


To find the value bets you need an edge that puts you ahead of the market. Examples of an edge could include insider knowledge, data crunching, faster pics, automation etc.

An edge is a psychological myth.

[Derek27]

It's all about value.

1.01 with a 109/110 chance is great value and you will make good money in the long term.
1.01 with a 89/90 chance is terrible value and you will lose a fortune.

Both the above strategies will look like they are winners early on, but you will lose long term unless you have value.

Capture33.PNG


To find the value bets you need an edge that puts you ahead of the market. Examples of an edge could include insider knowledge, data crunching, faster pics, automation etc.

An edge is a psychological myth.

Instead of arguing over edges, give your definition of an edge, and you'll probably find it's different to what others regard as an edge, rendering the argument meaningless.