How long to wait after a goal?

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DrJAT
Posts: 58
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2022 3:20 pm

Dallas wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 6:24 pm
Its also market dependant, the 'Match Odds' and some 'Over/Under' will reform faster than lesser markets, and the lower quality the over all match the worse that gets (assuming they have that particular market in the first place/)
Hi Dallas, I had the same problem this evening even with the new book % conditions. It was Perugia v Monza in Italy Serie B, I had drip backed over 1.5 goals and was in for £10 at average odds of 2.23. A goal went in at 21:18 (the 85th minute according to SofaScore). I have a bot reporting the over 0.5 goals price and the log tells me it was 1.68 shortly before the goal went in (which feels low for the 85th minute, but that's what the log says and it's consistent with all the other values). Anyway, I was expecting the over 1.5 goals market to re-form similarly after the goal, but my green up command layed at 4.8 (57 seconds after the market had suspended for the goal) and then at 2.74 (after a further 25 seconds). My book percentage condition (assuming the logic for groups of conditions works how I think) is that it requires back < 101.5 & lay > 98.5 OR 120 seconds since unsuspended - whichever happens first. In this case it kicked in after less than a minute so I'm assuming it met the book percentage conditions.

So I'm not quite sure what happened here. Do the markets not reform how I'm expecting? Is it different later on in a match? I'm actually quite surprised I was still in the trade so late on as usually my exit point is reached between 75 and 80 minutes, but obviously the slow movement on over 0.5 goals bought me more time. Nevertheless, if I can't exit safely then it turns winning trades into losing ones. It's a small sample so far but it's done it twice in 32 games which has dropped my ROI to about 1.4% (it would be nearly 4% if those wins were what they should have been, based on the 0.5 goals market below). Do you have any more advice on how I can fix this?

Many thanks!
JT
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

All book percentages are different based on traded volume overall.

In your case, what I would do is to constantly record the book percentages in stored values. After a goal, make sure the book percentages is <= to what it was before the goal +/- a percentage and time since goal is >= 60 seconds.

Hope that helps.
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