Trading What I see !?

[Trader Pat]

It's a classic! And unlike most movies it's not really a movie of its time, it's aged very well and is still relevant today..

The problem with movies about a world you know is that they look so unrealistic but have to be to make a story. I was working with traders and trading systems from 1986, dark liquidity pool stuff in the 90s, HFT quants around the millennium, and a docu-movie about the people involved would be boring as fck . I'm not a movie person anyway, I've probably only seen a dozen.

In 1986 I was eight so I was probably watching the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

[goat68]

I'm going to be rather annoyed if the dogs and horses don't make another £17 in the next 6 hours !

Screenshot 2022-06-30 at 18.03.53.png

[goat68]

So would you believe it, 59p short of £1k for June ! still i'll call that £1k !

Screenshot 2022-07-01 at 00.18.07.png

Screenshot 2022-07-01 at 00.17.26.png

So since it's always good to end on a high, making £1k in a month seems a good point to wind up my thread. I think it's got to a point now where i'm not bringing much more to the thread other than monthly PnL.

It's been a great and winding journey of learning, with many ups and downs and false dawns, but i'd like to say again thank you to everyone for participating, helping and contributing, and there's a lot of information and pointers in here. But i'm not going anywhere, as this forums is a great community of knowledge and fun people. So i'll continue feeding what i've learned into other threads.

THE END

[Trader Pat]

Well done Goat

Top thread

[Anbell]

I'd love to see a monthly pnl

[wearthefoxhat]

So would you believe it, 59p short of £1k for June ! still i'll call that £1k !
Screenshot 2022-07-01 at 00.18.07.png
Screenshot 2022-07-01 at 00.17.26.png

So since it's always good to end on a high, making £1k in a month seems a good point to wind up my thread. I think it's got to a point now where i'm not bringing much more to the thread other than monthly PnL.

It's been a great and winding journey of learning, with many ups and downs and false dawns, but i'd like to say again thank you to everyone for participating, helping and contributing, and there's a lot of information and pointers in here. But i'm not going anywhere, as this forums is a great community of knowledge and fun people. So i'll continue feeding what i've learned into other threads.

THE END

Well done!

The thread was a good example of; ((trial+ error)+(perserverance*tenacity)) =success

success1.png

[Vaz0202]

Easily the most inspirational thread on this forum. I, like most, have taken so much from it.

It’s certainly something I will be reading through again over the coming weeks and months

[Inforaquid]

hi thanks, I have tested that, and it's definitely seems -EV not hedging

So the strategy is shit then?

The strategy does beat BSP.

What does beating BSP actually mean?

[ShaunWhite]

What does beating BSP actually mean?

If you can get a bet (or series of bets) that are net better than BSP then you're onto a winner. BSP is known to be the most accurate price for any animal if you look at the stats at scale. For automation that's especially important to know because getting a clean hedge at BSP is so hard. It's why i spent so long encouraging goat NOT to look at the cash for the day/week but to measure his progress against BSP instead.

You have similar issues with manual trading too, if you tend to back first and that week >50% have shortened then you're not a hero and your granny could have done it blind. Cash is a very misleading measure of short term success....and short term failure too.

[Inforaquid]

What does beating BSP actually mean?

If you can get a bet (or series of bets) that are net better than BSP then you're onto a winner. BSP is known to be the most accurate price for any animal if you look at the stats at scale. For automation that's especially important to know because getting a clean hedge at BSP is so hard. It's why i spent so long encouraging goat NOT to look at the cash for the day/week but to measure his progress against BSP instead.

You have similar issues with manual trading too, if you tend to back first and that week >50% have shortened then you're not a hero and your granny could have done it blind. Cash is a very misleading measure of short term success....and short term failure too.

Makes sense, but I was wondering in the context of a long series of bets, does beating the BSP as a measure of a strategy's performance actually mean that the average price you lay at is lower than the average price of all your back bets? It seems that the total amount bet on each side of the book is also relevant, as you can beat BSP with lower stakes than when you don't, in which case you lose money although on average you beat the BSP.

[ShaunWhite]

I was wondering in the context of a long series of bets, does beating the BSP as a measure of a strategy's performance actually mean that the average price you lay at is lower than the average price of all your back bets?

Wierdly, yes. Just consider what a green position at BSP actually means. It means you've backed at a price bigger, or layed at a price lower, or, if you've done lots of backs and lays then the net total of them is 'better' than BSP. You can't be green at BSP without holding a portfolio of bets (buys and sells) that is of a greater net value than BSP. That's why hedging (aka greening) isn't always a clear cut decision, you've worked your way into a situation where you're holding value against BSP..... And then 'traders' automatically dump a load of it at a price that's known to have zero expected value! It's like going to the bookies and having [email protected] on a dog that should be 2.5....then giving £45 of it away at 2.5.

... But there's smoothing varience, and reducing commission that make hedging attractive so you make your choices.

FYI, the people who are considered to be big players are actually betting quite small, they just back lay lay back back lay etc etc and don't use amounts so big they have to give it away with a zeroEV bet at the end. Why bet £100 and need to give away £95 at BSP when you could just use £5 and let it run. "Trading doesn't make betting maths magically vanish.

[Inforaquid]

I was wondering in the context of a long series of bets, does beating the BSP as a measure of a strategy's performance actually mean that the average price you lay at is lower than the average price of all your back bets?

Wierdly, yes. Just consider what a green position at BSP actually means. It means you've backed at a price bigger, or layed at a price lower, or, if you've done lots of backs and lays then the net total of them is 'better' than BSP. You can't be green at BSP without holding a portfolio of bets (buys and sells) that is of a greater net value than BSP. That's why hedging (aka greening) isn't always a clear cut decision, you've worked your way into a situation where you're holding value against BSP..... And then 'traders' automatically dump a load of it at a price that's known to have zero expected value! It's like going to the bookies and having [email protected] on a dog that should be 2.5....then giving £45 of it away at 2.5.

... But there's smoothing varience, and reducing commission that make hedging attractive so you make your choices.

FYI, the people who are considered to be big players are actually betting quite small, they just back lay lay back back lay etc etc and don't use amounts so big they have to give it away with a zeroEV bet at the end. Why bet £100 and need to give away £95 at BSP when you could just use £5 and let it run. "Trading doesn't make betting maths magically vanish.

Right. Apparently the challenge is to be matched in equal proportions whether you make a profit or a loss because beating the BSP is pretty easy.

[ShaunWhite]

Right. Apparently the challenge is to be matched in equal proportions whether you make a profit or a loss because beating the BSP is pretty easy.

Equal proportions?
"Beating BSP is easy"????

[goat68]

Right. Apparently the challenge is to be matched in equal proportions whether you make a profit or a loss because beating the BSP is pretty easy.

Equal proportions?
"Beating BSP is easy"????

Easy if you have 2 years spare !

[Inforaquid]

Right. Apparently the challenge is to be matched in equal proportions whether you make a profit or a loss because beating the BSP is pretty easy.

Equal proportions?
"Beating BSP is easy"????

Then I should wait a little longer before drawing conclusions. So far I have only bet on around 2000 selections. Equal proportions i.e. total stakes to be equal on both profitable and unprofitable bets because apparently it's not enough to beat the BSP if the fill rate is not good enough.