Wow Athos55, that some quality Excel there, I've just been trying to do the Monte Carlo simulation and it's given me a headache lol. Thank you for taking the time to show me those numbers and saving a few more hairs on my head
I'll explain my thinking (and reply to you PM Shaun in a min
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)....
Basically I just started with the avg lay the LA pdf states @1.76 (I used 1.75 just because Im a simplton lol), and when thinking about how the odds move (fluctuations in-play) I thought @2.0 being a crossover point and area of congestion it wouldnt take much contention for the odds to hit around 2.0. Possibly the data may say otherwise on e.g. short 5f races etc. but gotta start somewhere right?
So I thought an avg lay @1.75 backed @1.99 would be slightly over 20%, Wow £2 from a £10 L2B at very close odds, seems too good to be true, couldnt be could it?
I only looked back over past 3 days befair results data (manually... no sim), and quickly saw from the very few odds on favs per day, around 6 or 7, and not accounting for the selection precess, I could see that 20% would've inccured too many losses that would fall short of any wins. I know some people run automation and make pennies per trade but amount to decent returns over a large number of races day in day out. So where do I go from here, lets not be greedy and have a look at 10%. 10% on the very small sample size showed an almost 100% strike rate (again, on this very small sample size) when keeping the qualifying criteria >
[email protected].
Pre Athos55's excellent work, I guess I would have had 2 choices to try and see if 10% was the right choice; one being to throw some more £1's at my new findings and be back on here in a week with a whole new bunch of questions about my 10% decision, or the second, and more sensible thing would be to take on your words Shaun and learn how to create a sim and run 1000 iterations in a second (once I worked out what data I needed). But to be honest, and you have to be honest with yourself in trading, I am not a numbers guy. Its like the guy says in the YouTube video shared in my other thread on modeling data "Making a Modeler", its not for everyone, some people are quantitatively or qualitatively slanted. This might sound mad but I don't trust the numbers
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their always historical. I know peoples profitability from data/auto is proof, but there's definitely a trust issue when it come to me and historical data. Its cheated on me before it'll cheat on me again!
I find Athos's work really interesting and impressive, but do I want to sit at my computer for hours creating something similar, or would I rather perfect my race reading skills and focus on trading in-play. I think it's the latter.
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