UK General Election 2024 (or 25)

[Derek27]

Truss didn't quite emulate her idol Thatcher's premiership, but at least she emulated her last 44 days.

[Derek27]

Rumours that Johnson's crossing the Atlantic by boat, and the boat's sinking, hence a drift to 2.8/2.96.

[greenmark]

Kwrteng's flight from the US to be sacked was re-reported by the BBC.
It seems we've lost track of BJ, where is the incompetent buffoon lurking?

[Vaz0202]

I saw a tweet (possibly deleted) from I think Julia Hartley-Brewer that says everyone in the Westminster circle knows why Ben Wallace won't stand.

James O’Brien was alluding to something like that yesterday but stopped short of saying it.

[Derek27]

This is really Sunak the Sensible versus Boris the Buffoon. I'm not sure what I'd prefer, boring but competent government from Sunak or comedy, chaos and more farce from Johnson!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=666OKm08fRA

[Derek27]

Surely if enough candidates put their names forward the 100 nominations bar may be set too high with nobody reaching it?

A senior Tory MP warns that if Johnson wins MPs will resign the party whip. A total of 35 will be required to force a snap election.

[Derek27]

Johnson's boat has sunk and he's now floating in a life jacket 5 miles off the coast of the Azores, hence his drift to 3.7.

[Archery1969]

Surely if enough candidates put their names forward the 100 nominations bar may be set too high with nobody reaching it?

A senior Tory MP warns that if Johnson wins MPs will resign the party whip. A total of 35 will be required to force a snap election.

Hardly anyone wants to put their name forward. And the ones that do will makesure they can meet the 100 threshold. Nobody will be able to turn things around in 5 years, let alone 2. Whoever takes it on will be blamed by everyone and their dog whatever they do. We cant borrow more, that means big cuts are coming across all government departments. Many more than normal will die over the winder period.

If it were me, I would go on TV and do a national emergency address to the nation. Explain the mess in words everyone can understand and do the following:

The Good.
1. Raise income tax threshold to £15,000
2. Raise National Insurance threshold to £15,000
3. Increase benefits by 10%
4. Increase pensions by 10%

The Bad.
5. Raise the 20% personal tax rate to 25% for 12 months. That will raise a great deal of money.
6. Raise the 25% corporation tax rate to 30% for 12 months. That will raise a great deal of money.
7. Ask the BOE, OBR and ONS to come up with a plan on ways of paying down the national debt, where to spend money and growing the economy. Somehow, the country is given the oppertunity to vote on the plan. That way, the majority decide on priorities for everyone.

[Derek27]

Surely if enough candidates put their names forward the 100 nominations bar may be set too high with nobody reaching it?

A senior Tory MP warns that if Johnson wins MPs will resign the party whip. A total of 35 will be required to force a snap election.

Hardly anyone wants to put their name forward. And the ones that do will makesure they can meet the 100 threshold. Nobody will be able to turn things around in 5 years, let alone 2. Whoever takes it on will be blamed by everyone and their dog whatever they do. We cant borrow more, that means big cuts are coming across all government departments. Many more than normal will die over the winder period.

If it were me, I would go on TV and do a national emergency address to the nation. Explain the mess in words everyone can understand and do the following:

The Good.
1. Raise income tax threshold to £15,000
2. Raise National Insurance threshold to £15,000
3. Increase benefits by 10%
4. Increase pensions by 10%

The Bad.
5. Raise the 20% personal tax rate to 25% for 12 months. That will raise a great deal of money.
6. Raise the 25% corporation tax rate to 30% for 12 months. That will raise a great deal of money.
7. Ask the BOE, OBR and ONS to come up with a plan on ways of paying down the national debt, where to spend money and growing the economy. Somehow, the country is given the oppertunity to vote on the plan. That way, the majority decide on priorities for everyone.

That sounds like solid policy, I might have even considered voting for you.

I'd be happy to see Johnson humiliated by not getting enough noms. I'd be happier still if he got enough and suffered a humiliating defeat in the contest. Or better still, he wins, and is found to have mislead or deliberately lied to parliament and has to resign, even if it does take six months to do it.

[Archery1969]

Jesus, dont they know there is a cost of living crisis and they want £55 off me for a Tory dinner at the golf club!!

[Derek27]

Jesus, dont they know there is a cost of living crisis and they want £55 off me for a Tory dinner at the golf club!!

The cost of living crisis doesn't exist within the Tory party. Just take nine people with you and you'll get a free dinner.

[Derek27]

Anyone actively trading the next PM market?

I'm clueless about UK politics but picked off some of that market noise.

I'm trading it to small stakes and I'm making a loss, thanks to the man I despise the most.

If I was King Charles I'd have Johnson locked up in the tower for the rest of his life and I'd execute every MP that supports him, rather like his namesake Charles II did with Oliver Cromwell and the MPs that supported him.

So market is up for a few more days from what I understand?

Yeah, for sure have to be careful with trading political opinions, it's one of the most extreme and stubborn biases So easy to overstake and create big losses, just don't start laying Boris just because you hate him

Couldn't resist the fillrates yesterday so dipped in and out at times, with around 10k turnover total so into 3 figures with most on Boris looks like, wish I was more clued in but probably better not to have an opinion

I see what you mean. He has been bouncing around between the lower and upper 3s. Strikes me as a safe lay in the lower 3s. He could drop down to 2.2 if he gets the 100 but if you're lucky he could be out.

[Derek27]

Some people/MPs say Johnson lied to parliament but so what, others say they don't believe he mislead parliament.

[Archangel]

No wonder Mail readers are a confused bunch!

[Kai]

I'm trading it to small stakes and I'm making a loss, thanks to the man I despise the most.

If I was King Charles I'd have Johnson locked up in the tower for the rest of his life and I'd execute every MP that supports him, rather like his namesake Charles II did with Oliver Cromwell and the MPs that supported him.

So market is up for a few more days from what I understand?

Yeah, for sure have to be careful with trading political opinions, it's one of the most extreme and stubborn biases So easy to overstake and create big losses, just don't start laying Boris just because you hate him

Couldn't resist the fillrates yesterday so dipped in and out at times, with around 10k turnover total so into 3 figures with most on Boris looks like, wish I was more clued in but probably better not to have an opinion

I see what you mean. He has been bouncing around between the lower and upper 3s. Strikes me as a safe lay in the lower 3s. He could drop down to 2.2 if he gets the 100 but if you're lucky he could be out.

Well the bots have been pushing Boris around since I first looked at it yesterday afternoon, if fillrates improve I will likely trade some more.

Not following the situation so can't fully commit to the market, but seems very tradable overall, like a 2-3 runner race that never ends.