Lay horses that trip or fall, i need help please

[The Silk Run]

Derek

You still haven't answered my second question and I think you only inadvertently answered my first. If you're laying at over 100, how many times in a 1000 do you think you'll get it wrong? Have you even considered whether the profits will be greater than the losses or are you assuming you'll stop doing what all other humans do and not make any mistakes?

My mistake came from to much info and buttons to small on screen on laptop, and mouse to sslow.

Switching to touch screen tablet with much less coloums works fine.

Yes i might lay the wrong horse at the track in the future, but i can red out asap for small loss.

Iv spoken to tpd and been recomended a different software, ill give their forum a try

You still won't answer me and you wonder why you're not getting any help!

So, you lay a horse at 100 for £10 giving a near £1000 liability. It's the wrong horse. It's now trading at 10. No matter, you red out by backing it for £100 making a £90 loss and wiping out your last 9 lays. How many days does it take to catch up? A lot of hard work just to make £10!

Mate your way off, obviously you have never tried it live at the track so i cant be too harsh.

Iv done about 150 races live, with 50 of them centre course at my local track.

Only lost 2x out of 150, and they were manual errors i made, not getting horse number wrong, i just clicked the wrong one rushing back into my car to place bet.

Now i use touch screen tablet, its way easier.
So 150 wins at varying odds, sometimes i lay a front runner ar 4.0 or 6.0 for my whole bank each time.

Ill let you decide if it works, hope that answerd the question? If not then rephrase it please

It sounds a very sophisticated operation "rushing back into my car to place bet"

[fatboyeno]

I'm primarily a footy trader but at the moment I'm swing-trading the racing, which as you probably know involves profiting from price movements. When I'm manually trading I don't have a fixed if A, B and C happens do this; if D, E and F happens do that. I just go by instinct and judgement from past experience.

Sorry in struggling explaining it,

Lets say you thought a horse was about to win and his odds were 1.3,
If your back button always set at 1.01, itl give you a good chance to match if price shortened to 1.2.
Betangel and betfair will always give you best odds available.

Also sometimes you can get matched higher sometimes that 1.3, no jdea why, mabye crossmatching or something but in the same example i have randomly matched at 5.5 when odds were 1.3

I know what you mean, I was confused because you've switched from laying to backing.

If a horse is leading, trading at 3.0 and falls three fences out, his price is going to move from 3.0 to 1000, probably in less than 500ms. If you're going to lay it for your entire bank, roughly what price to you try to catch it at?

It dont move that fast honestly, and if it did then 200ms bot would be way ahead.

I would try and catch it low as possible, but odds of 3 ish arw like 40 to 60s when i bet.

Sometimes 300, who cares if hes fell off he cant win

[fatboyeno]

You still won't answer me and you wonder why you're not getting any help!

So, you lay a horse at 100 for £10 giving a near £1000 liability. It's the wrong horse. It's now trading at 10. No matter, you red out by backing it for £100 making a £90 loss and wiping out your last 9 lays. How many days does it take to catch up? A lot of hard work just to make £10!

Mate your way off, obviously you have never tried it live at the track so i cant be too harsh.

Iv done about 150 races live, with 50 of them centre course at my local track.

Only lost 2x out of 150, and they were manual errors i made, not getting horse number wrong, i just clicked the wrong one rushing back into my car to place bet.

Now i use touch screen tablet, its way easier.
So 150 wins at varying odds, sometimes i lay a front runner ar 4.0 or 6.0 for my whole bank each time.

Ill let you decide if it works, hope that answerd the question? If not then rephrase it please

You've answered my question, well done - I did have to ask several times though!

What you've done at the track is completely irrelevant because your question is about automating it.

You got two losers but you sometimes/each time (?) you lay for your whole bank. Does this mean you had to replace your whole bank?

If you automate the process the manual errors may be a thing of the past, but don't you think they may just be replaced by automated errors? Remember what James said, or perhaps you just ignore what you don't want to hear.

TPD is pretty accurate and data is only about 0.2 sec delayed so an automation would likely beat even tracksiders to lay a fallen horse. But be aware that the trackers can fall off or stop working making it look like the horse has stopped. Only happens occasionally but assuming you'll be laying at 1000 it only takes one of these to go on and win and you're in the poor house.

No i didnt replace whole bank, i layed wrong horse but his odds were not 1000 he was still running, so i lost money but not destroyed me

[fatboyeno]

Also sometimes you can get matched higher sometimes that 1.3, no jdea why,

in-running the prices are moving faster than you can see or respond to them so sometimes you get a better price. But asking for 1.01 hoping to just get anything will mean you're getting lousy value most of the time. Taking prices is a punting mentality anyway, it's people offering prices who make the money.

As you said they move fast inplay, if u dont accept a price, your gona get alot of beta unmatched, then sit 30 mins for another chance, id rather take some in the heat of the moment

[fatboyeno]

Isn't the irony here that someone is looking for a risk-free strategy that can and should never lose in theory, but in reality ends up risking far more than the average person.

The bigger irony is that a method that should never lose has lost twice, but they were just mistakes that won't happen again.

I've often wondered why there are so many ex-military people on here, but perhaps the similarity is that you only have one life to lose on the battlefield and you only have one bank to lose on the exchange.

Atleast im honest? Mistakes were my own, and i adapted now i havent had that mistake again.. Yet

Go out and fail, blow a bank or 2, its fine if you understand how and why and adapt.

Funny how you guys take the piss while fishing for info im happy to say how it works, and wanted to automate also.

Couple grand is what i can afford to lose so thats it, im not risking 20k

[fatboyeno]

You still won't answer me and you wonder why you're not getting any help!

So, you lay a horse at 100 for £10 giving a near £1000 liability. It's the wrong horse. It's now trading at 10. No matter, you red out by backing it for £100 making a £90 loss and wiping out your last 9 lays. How many days does it take to catch up? A lot of hard work just to make £10!

Mate your way off, obviously you have never tried it live at the track so i cant be too harsh.

Iv done about 150 races live, with 50 of them centre course at my local track.

Only lost 2x out of 150, and they were manual errors i made, not getting horse number wrong, i just clicked the wrong one rushing back into my car to place bet.

Now i use touch screen tablet, its way easier.
So 150 wins at varying odds, sometimes i lay a front runner ar 4.0 or 6.0 for my whole bank each time.

Ill let you decide if it works, hope that answerd the question? If not then rephrase it please

It sounds a very sophisticated operation "rushing back into my car to place bet"

Haha tell me about it, it was to slow on binoculars and laptop, is why i asked for partner 4 years ago.

Iv sused it now alone, centre track on highest point with touch screen and bonded wifi (ee and voda sims) for stable connection

[The Silk Run]

Yup, I do admire your honesty. I think the community has witnessed it's fair share of 'Only Fools and Horses' over time ....

[fatboyeno]

Yup, I do admire your honesty. I think the community has witnessed it's fair share of 'Only Fools and Horses' over time ....

Cheers i didnt open the post to brag my wins vs losses, its to expand on a winning stratergy hopefully using automation when i cant get to the track.

I might even setup a "unity call which uses the internet so people can listen in on the numbers i call for fun when at the track

[Kai]

Yup, I do admire your honesty. I think the community has witnessed it's fair share of 'Only Fools and Horses' over time ....

Cheers i didnt open the post to brag my wins vs losses

We just think these types of Risk vs Reward ratios are folly, plain and simple

But then again, so is trying to talk people out of it

[Derek27]

It sounds a very sophisticated operation "rushing back into my car to place bet"

...in less than 200ms!!

[fatboyeno]

Yup, I do admire your honesty. I think the community has witnessed it's fair share of 'Only Fools and Horses' over time ....

Cheers i didnt open the post to brag my wins vs losses

We just think these types of Risk vs Reward ratios are folly, plain and simple

But then again, so is trying to talk people out of it

I get that, let me into a stratergy that you see as better risk reward ratio, im all ears. Id actually like you to now tell me a winning formula and let me try pick it apart as that seems the plan for this thread.

So go on tell me and ill happily look at it. Please

[fatboyeno]

It sounds a very sophisticated operation "rushing back into my car to place bet"

...in less than 200ms!!

Exactly automation from tpd can be streamed in 200ms way faster than me fumbling about. BUT, i can make it work so why not accept that the odds do move fast but not to quick as i can still profit.

Tell me an idea for horses please that you make work long term?

Ill let u listen into my race next time im there and play with tiny odds, see how u do, fair?

[Derek27]

Sorry in struggling explaining it,

Lets say you thought a horse was about to win and his odds were 1.3,
If your back button always set at 1.01, itl give you a good chance to match if price shortened to 1.2.
Betangel and betfair will always give you best odds available.

Also sometimes you can get matched higher sometimes that 1.3, no jdea why, mabye crossmatching or something but in the same example i have randomly matched at 5.5 when odds were 1.3

I know what you mean, I was confused because you've switched from laying to backing.

If a horse is leading, trading at 3.0 and falls three fences out, his price is going to move from 3.0 to 1000, probably in less than 500ms. If you're going to lay it for your entire bank, roughly what price to you try to catch it at?

It dont move that fast honestly, and if it did then 200ms bot would be way ahead.

I would try and catch it low as possible, but odds of 3 ish arw like 40 to 60s when i bet.

Sometimes 300, who cares if hes fell off he cant win

Right. So when you see a horse trading at 3 fall, in a second it's trading at 10-20. A few seconds later it's hit 50, presumably there are a lot of people backing this horse after it's fallen?

[Derek27]

No i didnt replace whole bank, i layed wrong horse but his odds were not 1000 he was still running, so i lost money but not destroyed me

But sometimes you lay your entire bank, so you could have lost it all on one of these losers.

[Derek27]

Isn't the irony here that someone is looking for a risk-free strategy that can and should never lose in theory, but in reality ends up risking far more than the average person.

The bigger irony is that a method that should never lose has lost twice, but they were just mistakes that won't happen again.

I've often wondered why there are so many ex-military people on here, but perhaps the similarity is that you only have one life to lose on the battlefield and you only have one bank to lose on the exchange.

Atleast im honest? Mistakes were my own, and i adapted now i havent had that mistake again.. Yet

Go out and fail, blow a bank or 2, its fine if you understand how and why and adapt.

Funny how you guys take the piss while fishing for info im happy to say how it works, and wanted to automate also.

Couple grand is what i can afford to lose so thats it, im not risking 20k

Most of us learn valuable lessons by losing 10% or so of our bank. Some people blow their bank and learn not to risk an entire bank on one market but it's a lesson you don't need to learn the hard way.