UK General Election 2024 (or 25)

[LeTiss]

Watching the price of Suella Braverman on next Conservative leader may be interesting. She's currently 4th favourite.

I think many Tories believe Sunak is a dead duck at the polls, and love her or hate her, Suella has much support within the Tory grassroots.
I'm reading this morning that many believe her damning letter to Sunak wasn't a resignation letter, it almost akin to being a challenge for the leadership

Only £46,000 matched so far, but that could start getting a bit tasty over the coming weeks

[LeTiss]

I'm also watching the market 'Rishi Sunak Conservative Leader at Next Election'

I reckon Sunak could be a decent lay here at heavy odds on. The knives are being sharpened within the Tory ranks, and seeing how disastrous they recently performed in by-elections, I wouldn;t be at all surprised if we see a leadership contest before the GE

I'd be very tempted to lay "Yes" at the odds of 1.21 - 1.25 currently being traded

[firlandsfarm]

Fair pont. How can you vote for vapour? Politics and the media have skewed democracy. I'd much rather row about Labour policy X or Tory policy Z. But it's more difficult than ever to get true information
But I still believe in democracy. And if Labour win the next GE I would want the Tory party to be a strong opposition. The weakness of the opposition maybe why we're where we are now.

Agreed ... I could not vote for 'vapour' (assuming that was not a typo on your part! ) because of the vacuum, you have to know what someone is asking you to vote for to be able to bring them to account. If Labour put some meat on the policies and I agree with them I could vote for them because Labour are not the Labour of old. They have realised that the Labour of old is not electable but at the moment they don't have any policies, just words. For a policy to be a policy it has to show it is implementable. So at the moment Labour does not have any policies because we have no information how they will achieve their claims. My other concern would be if they win the election can we trust them not to throw out the 'moderates' and replace them with baby 'Corbynites'

[firlandsfarm]

If I were Sunak, then I would call a meeting with all the Tory MPs and tell Braveman and all her supporters to cross the floor to join the opposition or resign their seats.

If there don’t then I would threaten them all with calling an early general election right on Xmas.

They can either ditch her and swear under oath support for Sunak or fuck off.

It will never happen but that's the sort of hard action I would support. I don't agree with all the avoiding snowflakery.

[firlandsfarm]

I'm also watching the market 'Rishi Sunak Conservative Leader at Next Election'

I reckon Sunak could be a decent lay here at heavy odds on. The knives are being sharpened within the Tory ranks, and seeing how disastrous they recently performed in by-elections, I wouldn;t be at all surprised if we see a leadership contest before the GE

I'd be very tempted to lay "Yes" at the odds of 1.21 - 1.25 currently being traded

We will probably know before the year end to be able to run the leadership process and give the new leader a chance to reverse the decline.

[firlandsfarm]

I recently posted that we now export more to the EU than we did pre Brexit despite them throwing their toys out of the pram but I that's the sort of news Remoaners just don't want to hear, they rather bury their heads in the sand.

Screenshot 2023-11-14 122216.png

We also import far more (from our biggest trading partner).

The quicker (whatever) government sorts out the disastrous deal done my the incompetents in charge at the time the better.

I don't think we have yet implemented the import controls on the UK side so UK customers costs will only get higher (and more difficult).

PS: this is not a go at Brexiteers but the deal done & implementation of...

I don't see a problem with us importing more from the EU ... it shows that trading between both parties is healthy and the more we import from them the more important we become to them.

[sionascaig]

I don't see a problem with us importing more from the EU ... it shows that trading between both parties is healthy and the more we import from them the more important we become to them.

I think the big problem with getting excited about the level of UK exports to EU is, that you (we) have no idea what it would have been if we had not left or reached a better deal, e.g. stayed in common market.

But given that trade with the EU is:

- now much harder
- more costly
- a lot of small / medium traders have given up (and not found other overseas markets)

==> on the balance of probabilities it is reasonable to assume that exports to the EU are much lower than what they would have been.. and our deficit higher...

Perhaps there is hope to be found in that it should be possible to negotiate a better deal if any of our leaders are brave enough to rise to the challenge. Although Sunak was almost criminalised by the right of his party for even hinting it may be possible....

[Archery1969]

The problem with Brexit was:

- The EU held all the power. We had very little they wanted while they had allot more that we wanted/needed. Given that scenario then you are never going to get a good deal. He’ll at one point France threatened to turn off the power to Guernsey and Jersey over fishing rights. If I had been the UK PM then I would have deployed the Royal Navy. Who the fuck does France think it is. It’s worth noting we have had more wars with France than any other country in the world, I wonder why. The next time France or the rest of the EU needs help then I would tell them to fuck off.

- Northern Ireland, the EU knew because of the Good Friday agreement that they had the UK over a barrel and also knew the USA would side with them against the UK.

Should we have left the EU, with hindsight NO, we should have demanded a seat at the top table alongside France and Germany and shaped it how it would best work for the UK.

However, what’s done is done. We should get allot more tougher with them and especially France.

Some of these countries in Europe have short memories. You have to ask why did we sacrifice so many to liberate them not that long ago. The Netherlands and Norway understood that argument and up until the last minute begged and pleaded with us not to leave the EU.

No PM, regardless of party, will ever get a good deal with those muppets across the channel. Look at what they did to Greece for refinancing. I rest my case.

Every time an EU country kicks up a fuss about something or throws their dummy out of the cot, Italy, Spain to name a few, the EU chucks large junks of money at them in the hope they keep complaining behind close doors. That’s no way to run things.

It’s ironic that now Germany wants to talk about immigration with some not nice policy thinking. I guess they have come to realise you can’t home everyone who has problems back in their own countries. It’s not a free world to go live wherever you want. A UK citizen can’t just go plod themselves in Canada, USA, Australia or New Zealand with no questions asked. So why should be any different if people want to come to the UK. That’s not being racist or right wing, common sense really. And my views on that will never change.

But hey, peace and let’s look forward to the next conflict in the world. Far too many to mention.

[sionascaig]

Watching the price of Suella Braverman on next Conservative leader may be interesting. She's currently 4th favourite.

Which reminds me - need to check if Suella making a resignation statement soon!

With the supreme court finding Rwanda scheme illegal, cant see how she can resist the urge to blame someone else for her failures.

==> possible Tory chaos (again) will be good for the market )

[Archery1969]

Sunak now has no choice but to leave the ECHR. That will cause a global nightmare.

[LeTiss]

Yes, she blames Sunak for everything, but the important thing is she has a great deal of support within the Tory grassroots level (who not forgetting rejected Sunak for Truss)

I'm sick of the fighting in this thread, or what anybody's views are. I'm only interested in how events are affecting prices

This is why I think it's a market move worth looking out for - I'm half expecting Braverman to challenge Sunak for the leadership before the GE

[firlandsfarm]

The problem with Brexit was:

- The EU held all the power. We had very little they wanted while they had allot more that we wanted/needed. Given that scenario then you are never going to get a good deal. He’ll at one point France threatened to turn off the power to Guernsey and Jersey over fishing rights. If I had been the UK PM then I would have deployed the Royal Navy. Who the fuck does France think it is. It’s worth noting we have had more wars with France than any other country in the world, I wonder why. The next time France or the rest of the EU needs help then I would tell them to fuck off.

- Northern Ireland, the EU knew because of the Good Friday agreement that they had the UK over a barrel and also knew the USA would side with them against the UK.

Should we have left the EU, with hindsight NO, we should have demanded a seat at the top table alongside France and Germany and shaped it how it would best work for the UK.

However, what’s done is done. We should get allot more tougher with them and especially France.

Some of these countries in Europe have short memories. You have to ask why did we sacrifice so many to liberate them not that long ago. The Netherlands and Norway understood that argument and up until the last minute begged and pleaded with us not to leave the EU.

No PM, regardless of party, will ever get a good deal with those muppets across the channel. Look at what they did to Greece for refinancing. I rest my case.

Every time an EU country kicks up a fuss about something or throws their dummy out of the cot, Italy, Spain to name a few, the EU chucks large junks of money at them in the hope they keep complaining behind close doors. That’s no way to run things.

It’s ironic that now Germany wants to talk about immigration with some not nice policy thinking. I guess they have come to realise you can’t home everyone who has problems back in their own countries. It’s not a free world to go live wherever you want. A UK citizen can’t just go plod themselves in Canada, USA, Australia or New Zealand with no questions asked. So why should be any different if people want to come to the UK. That’s not being racist or right wing, common sense really. And my views on that will never change.

But hey, peace and let’s look forward to the next conflict in the world. Far too many to mention.

Entirely agree. And look at how quickly some of them put checks on their Schengen borders when the immigrants started arriving. Common Market ... wonderful, EU ... never for us. And why does it have to be a political organisation ... what was wrong with being a common market? They would have you believe you need the political control to be able to ensure fairness in the Common Market.
I wonder how those other common trade arrangements around the world survive without political control!

[sionascaig]

This is why I think it's a market move worth looking out for - I'm half expecting Braverman to challenge Sunak for the leadership before the GE

Already 1 letter of no confidence in for Sunak (and its not from Braverman), on the back of her departure...

TBH I find it almost incomprehensible that she has significant grassroots support but don't doubt its true. Certainly interesting to see what happens next.

[Emmson]

What happened today has the potential to turn this thread nasty again. Inescapable!

I'll not chime in anyways.

This is what politics does, I've seen it within families

[Archery1969]

If the UK leaves the ECHR by six months notice then it would make the following null and void:

- Good Friday Agreement
- Brexit Agreement

This would cause absolute carnage in financial markets and politically leave the UK out in the wilderness for decades as there is no easy mechanism for rejoining.