Hi Jeff.
Mostly pre off ,or just at the off.finding a good position get 3-4 ticks,also just wandering around the markets to see what i can spot,like last night ,dont remember what game it was in the am. but the under 1.5 goals was at 1.08 only 18 mins into the second half,i thought for little liability i should lay this and wait for a goal ,i laid 20 quid was a goal 10 mins later green up for 5.88 and out,im always looking for a move, i dont have the big bank or back up ,so i just look for small greens and move on,
Marc
Choosing the right entry point on horse scalping?
Hi Marc
Are you confident you've found an edge?
Or to put it another way, are you pretty sure that, after 10,000 trades, you'll be in profit using the
methods you're using?
People talk about the market being very efficient. On one level it is - see http://www.probabilitytheory.info/conte ... ge-markets. But I believe there is a great deal of inefficiency too - for example, some people may take money from the market rather than offer it, even though the market is static and they could probably get matched if they were to offer money.
And it's also possible for the market to be very accurate overall, but very inaccurate for individual horses. Let's take 10 horses in 10 races, each with true odds of 5.0. Five of those horses drift out to 7.0, and five steam in to 3.0. Overall, the market is spot on, even though it's way out for each horse! I wonder if that's what happens in practice, with irrational drifts and steams cancelling each other out. What do you guys think?
Jeff
Are you confident you've found an edge?
Or to put it another way, are you pretty sure that, after 10,000 trades, you'll be in profit using the
methods you're using?
People talk about the market being very efficient. On one level it is - see http://www.probabilitytheory.info/conte ... ge-markets. But I believe there is a great deal of inefficiency too - for example, some people may take money from the market rather than offer it, even though the market is static and they could probably get matched if they were to offer money.
And it's also possible for the market to be very accurate overall, but very inaccurate for individual horses. Let's take 10 horses in 10 races, each with true odds of 5.0. Five of those horses drift out to 7.0, and five steam in to 3.0. Overall, the market is spot on, even though it's way out for each horse! I wonder if that's what happens in practice, with irrational drifts and steams cancelling each other out. What do you guys think?
Jeff
Hi Jeff,
the markets and efficienty ? its a subject we could all talk about for days.there are efficient markets ,like a group 1-2 or 3 race say 10 runners,the punters normally have it right ,like barcelona were tonight 1.10 pre-off they scored very quickly and are 2 goals up now.so if the punters have the market right what can we do with it ? well there are many tools on betangel and ive spent 11 months studying them,they are there for a reason although peter webb dosnt show us how to make money from then ,i ask my self why is this here?what can i do with it? i made alot of trades to day and didnt enter one without knowing how much i would get out of it,knowing that when i pushed the button my money would be taken. i started with 179 euro and now have 328.oo i havent found the holy grail .but to answer your question on if i made 10.000 trades would it work ? the answer is i know before i enter the trade if i will make a small margin, if i cant i dont enter.
like people always say on here its a head game.best thing i did was completely stop to gamble.this gave me a greater focus.i hope it continues,,,
Marc
the markets and efficienty ? its a subject we could all talk about for days.there are efficient markets ,like a group 1-2 or 3 race say 10 runners,the punters normally have it right ,like barcelona were tonight 1.10 pre-off they scored very quickly and are 2 goals up now.so if the punters have the market right what can we do with it ? well there are many tools on betangel and ive spent 11 months studying them,they are there for a reason although peter webb dosnt show us how to make money from then ,i ask my self why is this here?what can i do with it? i made alot of trades to day and didnt enter one without knowing how much i would get out of it,knowing that when i pushed the button my money would be taken. i started with 179 euro and now have 328.oo i havent found the holy grail .but to answer your question on if i made 10.000 trades would it work ? the answer is i know before i enter the trade if i will make a small margin, if i cant i dont enter.
like people always say on here its a head game.best thing i did was completely stop to gamble.this gave me a greater focus.i hope it continues,,,
Marc
Is your thinking that form is more consistent and easier to assess in higher-grade races?convoysur wrote:Hi Jeff,
the markets and efficienty ? its a subject we could all talk about for days.there are efficient markets ,like a group 1-2 or 3 race say 10 runners,the punters normally have it right
I don't know what Barcelona's true odds were, but although I'm sure they were always highly likely to win, isn't it possible that the true odds were above that figure?convoysur wrote:like barcelona were tonight 1.10 pre-off they scored very quickly and are 2 goals up now.
With a match like that, I'd be suspicious that everyone is thinking that the selection is a 'racing certainty' and their backing it into oblivion might pull the price lower than it should be.
I've always found Peter to be very helpful.convoysur wrote:although peter webb dosnt show us how to make money from then
Perhaps I'm misunderstanding you, but how can you know that your trade will be successful?convoysur wrote:i made alot of trades to day and didnt enter one without knowing how much i would get out of it
For example, you might have a lay matched at 4.0, and be waiting for your back order to be filled. But before that happens, Mr High-Roller comes along and backs the horse for 20K, taking the price down to 3.5. Whether you like it or not, you'll have to take a haircut.
Well done!convoysur wrote:i started with 179 euro and now have 328.oo
From your recent results, it sounds like you might well have found something that works long-term.
I agree about gambling. Unless you're confident you have an edge, best to keep your money in your pocket.convoysur wrote:best thing i did was completely stop to gamble.
I'd say that's not an attitude many ordinary punters take. I find my bets online, and then write them on a slip take them into my bookie. I get the bookie to check that his price is the same price as that on the slip, and scrap it if it isn't. I'm the only customer of his who does that; it seems most people just bang in a bet if they like the look of the horse, without too much concern about value!
And I'll never understand why people bet at SP! If a horse looks hot, chances are that the bookie will offer higher odds at SP than his earlier prices!
Jeff
I've always found Peter to be very helpful[/quote]
Absolutely yes.Ferru123 wrote: yes betangel are ,my point was that people cant show you or wont show you,they cant,every one has to find there own comfort zone as well as there strenghts.i will not answer that right now,but i will in the future,Ferru123 wrote:Perhaps I'm misunderstanding you, but how can you know that your trade will be successful?
For example, you might have a lay matched at 4.0, and be waiting for your back order to be filled. But before that happens, Mr High-Roller comes along and backs the horse for 20K, taking the price down to 3.5. Whether you like it or not, you'll have to take a haircutjeff i dont understand why would you go to the bookies ,first of all the coffee is always bad there,secondly you have the kit to ask for what ever price you want .and any way why back one horse?if we know that the market if efficient most of the time,why not do the following ?convoysur wrote:agree about gambling. Unless you're confident you have an edge, best to keep your money in your pocket.
I'd say that's not an attitude many ordinary punters take. I find my bets online, and then write them on a slip take them into my bookie. I get the bookie to check that his price is the same price as that on the slip, and scrap it if it isn't. I'm the only customer of his who does that; it seems most people just bang in a bet if they like the look of the horse, without too much concern about value!
And I'll never understand why people bet at SP! If a horse looks hot, chances are that the bookie will offer higher odds at SP than his earlier prices!
if we have a ten horse race ,class 1-2-3-or 4.8 horses are 10/1 or lower , 2 are outsiders at 26/1 and 40/1 why not back the first eight ? and cover 80% of the market .its very easy we have the software to do it,you can punt as much as you want,and now you have a 20% off loss, so what do we do if the outsider is coming on to win,? well we have an inplay tool.and with a predetermened steak we can say well if this donkey looks like winning ill punt it at 4/1 in running and get out for free,or what ever way you want to work the maths,
Marc
Is your thinking that form is more consistent and easier to assess in higher-grade races?
Hi Marc
I go to the bookies because my online accounts have been shut down.
I sit in the pub and use its wifi connection to find selections on my laptop, and then nip over to the bookies when I find one.
I don't go for exotic bets. I just go each-way (as 'on the nose' gives me nasty long losing runs, even though it's more profitable long-term).
If you have value on your side, you'll make as much money that way long term as with any other approach. So why complicate things?
Jeff
I go to the bookies because my online accounts have been shut down.
I sit in the pub and use its wifi connection to find selections on my laptop, and then nip over to the bookies when I find one.
I don't go for exotic bets. I just go each-way (as 'on the nose' gives me nasty long losing runs, even though it's more profitable long-term).
If you have value on your side, you'll make as much money that way long term as with any other approach. So why complicate things?
Jeff
From this email, I'm guessing it's nothing to do with sending them too many emails...
Speaking of emails, I sent them 5 replies to the email below, but the ignorant sods didn't have the courtesy to reply to a single one!
Jeff
Dear Jeff,
After a recent review, we have taken the decision to close your account.
Like other bookmakers, we continually review our customer base and reserve the right to close accounts at our discretion. As you may be aware, we have previously limited your stakes and have now decided that offering this heavily restricted service is no longer commercially sensible. Any outstanding ante-post bets will be honoured, please contact us when you believe the bet should be settled.
If you have any funds in your account, please contact our Customer Services team to arrange a withdrawal.
You will no longer be able to place bets using your Ladbrokes Customer ID and, should you attempt to open another account in future, this account will be subject to immediate closure.
Yours sincerely,
Ladbrokes Customer Service Team
Speaking of emails, I sent them 5 replies to the email below, but the ignorant sods didn't have the courtesy to reply to a single one!
Jeff
Dear Jeff,
After a recent review, we have taken the decision to close your account.
Like other bookmakers, we continually review our customer base and reserve the right to close accounts at our discretion. As you may be aware, we have previously limited your stakes and have now decided that offering this heavily restricted service is no longer commercially sensible. Any outstanding ante-post bets will be honoured, please contact us when you believe the bet should be settled.
If you have any funds in your account, please contact our Customer Services team to arrange a withdrawal.
You will no longer be able to place bets using your Ladbrokes Customer ID and, should you attempt to open another account in future, this account will be subject to immediate closure.
Yours sincerely,
Ladbrokes Customer Service Team
Hi ALL .
great story abou one of the biggest gambles last year on a horse called BRABAZON,
james ferry the owner is a very sucessfull business man ,
one of his business is a bin company called fery refuse.
he had a problem with ladbrooks they shut his account and give him a bit of an attatude when they wouldent take a bet from him of like 1000.00 ,
he told them it will cost you alot more before im finished with you,he had spent a year getting brabazon ready ,he meet all his employes at the refuse depot on the morning of the race and told all the bin men to knock on the doors of his customers and tell them that brabazon is running to day ,and if the horse dosnt finish first that he will refund every losing docket ,as long as it was a ladbrooks docket,the manager of ladbrooks in ballybofey told me that they paid out over 4 million just on that horse...
CLASSIC TRUE STORY,,i have to admire that man..
Marc
great story abou one of the biggest gambles last year on a horse called BRABAZON,
james ferry the owner is a very sucessfull business man ,
one of his business is a bin company called fery refuse.
he had a problem with ladbrooks they shut his account and give him a bit of an attatude when they wouldent take a bet from him of like 1000.00 ,
he told them it will cost you alot more before im finished with you,he had spent a year getting brabazon ready ,he meet all his employes at the refuse depot on the morning of the race and told all the bin men to knock on the doors of his customers and tell them that brabazon is running to day ,and if the horse dosnt finish first that he will refund every losing docket ,as long as it was a ladbrooks docket,the manager of ladbrooks in ballybofey told me that they paid out over 4 million just on that horse...
CLASSIC TRUE STORY,,i have to admire that man..
Marc
-
steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
He should have offered the money up front to go and place the bets and split the winnings. He could have then won 2 million for the same risk, or more as more people would have bet if they knew they wouldnt have lost their own money. Not sure im buying into story.
Hi Stephen
i only know what the man told me.here it costd 13.00 per week to have a wheely bin emptied. i think its great for some one to give his cutsomers a reward like that ,and in the process he was rewarded with customer loyality,
any way ,check the racing post article.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-ra ... er/795008/
Marc
i only know what the man told me.here it costd 13.00 per week to have a wheely bin emptied. i think its great for some one to give his cutsomers a reward like that ,and in the process he was rewarded with customer loyality,
any way ,check the racing post article.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-ra ... er/795008/
Marc