UK General Election July 4th 2024 - Trading ONLY thread

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

The Financial Times is reporting that the wealthy are selling shares and property amid fears Labour will raise capital gains tax.
greenmark
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Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

sionascaig wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 10:35 am
Archery1969 wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:53 am
Euler wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:32 am
I can't believe this poll will play out. Will be interesting to review this after the election: -

https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp ... n-in-1997/
One thing I have read from that is its a certainty that will be an end to Scottish independence. SNP wont be happy if it plays out that way!!!
Utter bollocks on the SNP side I suspect, although a lot of seats are indeed very close.

Indie v's non-indie support still 50/50 (ish) and its reckoned about 25% of labour supporters are pro indie as well. It will be on the agenda for foreseeable future I think.

Mind a lot of folk are unhappy with the SNP because the haven't pushed indie enough... Will get a better feel for it at Scottish elections.
There are also some that are not happy with the basic management of Scotland under SNP outside the Indie issue.
The installation of the Edinburgh tram system has caused trafffic chaos for nearly a decade. Business's on Leith Walk have been more than decimated.
The SNP seem full of high ideals but are incapable of delivering. They look like the Tory's. Too much power for too long and they're now turning on each other.
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Euler
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Archery1969 wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 5:13 pm
The Financial Times is reporting that the wealthy are selling shares and property amid fears Labour will raise capital gains tax.
Lots of people I know aren't taking any chances. It's in Labour's DNA to tax and spend. Also raising CGT to the same level as Income tax doesn't make any sense. It will kill investment.

Better safe than funding a free-spending politician's ego.
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Euler
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:53 am
Euler wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:32 am
I can't believe this poll will play out. Will be interesting to review this after the election: -

https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp ... n-in-1997/
One thing I have read from that is its a certainty that will be an end to Scottish independence. SNP wont be happy if it plays out that way!!!
No doubt SNP will lose a lot of seats and that will help Labour.
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

Jeremy king canute expected to lose his seat by 20 points!

With a Labour majority now down to 1.03, it's a shame there's no market for majority size.
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jamesedwards
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Derek27 wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 5:34 pm
With a Labour majority now down to 1.03, it's a shame there's no market for majority size.
It's the same as Labour Party Seats market.

650 seats total. So Labour 400-449 seats is the same as Labour Majority 150-248 etc etc.
Emmson
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Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

The Tories have raised the tax burden to the highest point since 1948 the year NHS was introduced with nothing to show for it except crumbling public services nationwide.

I will relish their impending rout, others can please themselves.

On the other hand I've still not decided who vote for.
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Derek27
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Emmson wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 5:59 pm
The Tories have raised the tax burden to the highest point since 1948 the year NHS was introduced with nothing to show for it except crumbling public services nationwide.

I will relish their impending rout, others can please themselves.

On the other hand I've still not decided who vote for.
We were on a run of trading-related posts until you posted that. ;)
Emmson
Posts: 3576
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 6:14 pm
Emmson wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 5:59 pm
The Tories have raised the tax burden to the highest point since 1948 the year NHS was introduced with nothing to show for it except crumbling public services nationwide.

I will relish their impending rout, others can please themselves.

On the other hand I've still not decided who vote for.
We were on a run of trading-related posts until you posted that. ;)
Euler made an overtly political point so I decided to make one too. :D
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Euler
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

I was just telling you why everybody was cashing out. It wasn't political.

Labour was ousted after the 2008 financial crisis, Churchill after the war. There is just a patten of the incumbent being ousted around major events, regardless of policy.
greenmark
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Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

Euler wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 6:25 pm
I was just telling you why everybody was cashing out. It wasn't political.

Labour was ousted after the 2008 financial crisis, Churchill after the war. There is just a patten of the incumbent being ousted around major events, regardless of policy.
No ousting of the incumbent for policy reasons. Look at the list of "Leaders" for the last 14 years.
Cameron
May
Johnson
Truss
Sunak.

It's over. The Tories are toast and they deserve the humiliation. They need to sort their party out. They are so obsessed with their own internal conflicts that they
cannot govern. But HELLO governing the country is the job of the government.
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

Well, if you want to make allot of money, open a forex account and trade London Breakout Strategy on Friday morning from 8.00am UK time. Highly likely that all GBP currency pairs will rise sharply, so Buy Buy Buy.

But don’t tell Rachel Reeves as you might have to pay allot of tax on your profits.

🤠
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Euler
Posts: 26234
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

greenmark wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 6:46 pm
No ousting of the incumbent for policy reasons. Look at the list of "Leaders" for the last 14 years.
When Covid struck that was the moment. It was impossible to overcome that. Labour could have put 'we will euthanise all pets' in their manifesto and they would still get into power.

In 5 or 10 years time, something will happen and everybody will vote for the other guys. It's a sort of flaw with democracy. But at least we have one.
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jamesedwards
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Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 6:53 pm
Well, if you want to make allot of money, open a forex account and trade London Breakout Strategy on Friday morning from 8.00am UK time. Highly likely that all GBP currency pairs will rise sharply, so Buy Buy Buy.

But don’t tell Rachel Reeves as you might have to pay allot of tax on your profits.

🤠
Surely a Labour win has been priced into all the markets for some time?
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

jamesedwards wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:23 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 6:53 pm
Well, if you want to make allot of money, open a forex account and trade London Breakout Strategy on Friday morning from 8.00am UK time. Highly likely that all GBP currency pairs will rise sharply, so Buy Buy Buy.

But don’t tell Rachel Reeves as you might have to pay allot of tax on your profits.

🤠
Surely a Labour win has been priced into all the markets for some time?
Forex is different as the Asian session moves currencies especially AUD, JPY and NZD. The GBP is paired with all 3 of those. Very often the Bank of Japan intervenes if the JPY is oversold or overbought against its currency pairings etc.
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