UK - Party Leaders - Next Conservative Leader

[Derek27]

Robert Jenrick trying to define the English identity: our values, courtesies and manners that we have ... such as setting asylum hotels ablaze with people in it.

[greenmark]

Robert Jenrick trying to define the English identity: our values, courtesies and manners that we have ... such as setting asylum hotels ablaze with people in it.

Hard to get excited about this thread ATM. Tories won't be in power anytime soon so the next leader will be a caretaker until the 1922 commitee decide to elect a more popular option for the next GE. The candidates still look like a useless bunch.

[firlandsfarm]

I think this is one of the most difficult markets to predict. As you have to understand that it's not the best person for the job, but the person the members want.

Shouldn't that be "the person the MP's allow the Members to want"! Conspiring MP's could vote down who they don't want.

[Michael5482]

Just had a look at the market, Robert Jenrick 1.74 to back the man who's took 75k from a company with no employees which in turn was loaned money from a Britsh overseas tax haven, you couldn't make it up.

The 4 candidates were all in Government and delivered nothing but lies and austerity on British people. They may have credibility with the very small deluded Tory membership but they have no credibility with the British public which is where it matters. The Tory's would have more credibility if they stuck up new candidates not involved in the 14 years of chaos but don't think they have any. Hard to see a future for them. Farage has already moved aside for them once with the Brexit Party and he won't be doing it again with Reform, he's looking to stick the boot in.

I see Reform spanked Labour & Tory's in a Blackpool Council by-election yesterday, not much to go on I know but I'll be exploring the Reform/Lib Dem trading angles going forward, that's where the momentum is IMO Won't be wasting money on the Tory's that's for sure.

[sionascaig]

Just had a look at the market, Robert Jenrick 1.74 to back the man who's took 75k from a company with no employees which in turn was loaned money from a Britsh overseas tax haven, you couldn't make it up.

The 4 candidates were all in Government and delivered nothing but lies and austerity on British people. They may have credibility with the very small deluded Tory membership but they have no credibility with the British public which is where it matters. The Tory's would have more credibility if they stuck up new candidates not involved in the 14 years of chaos but don't think they have any. Hard to see a future for them. Farage has already moved aside for them once with the Brexit Party and he won't be doing it again with Reform, he's looking to stick the boot in.

I see Reform spanked Labour & Tory's in a Blackpool Council by-election yesterday, not much to go on I know but I'll be exploring the Reform/Lib Dem trading angles going forward, that's where the momentum is IMO Won't be wasting money on the Tory's that's for sure.

Spot on Michael...

They are in desperate need of new leaders and especially one that can unite the right & those with a more central view. Looks like the members will yet again be given the choice of which is the least worst out of these two hopeless cases.

Recent opinion polling in Scotland shows a very scary rise in Reform and I would suggest a lot less folk in Scotland would be tempted to vote Reform than in England ==> Tory carnage not going away...

Screenshot 2024-10-04 131832.png

[jamesedwards]

Bizarrely it feels like neither Labour or Conservative popularity will decide the next government. It will all depend on Reform. If they are in-it-to-win-it then it will be another Labour term. If, not the Tories will be back in charge.

I notice Labour are only even money now for most seats at next GE.

[greenmark]

tugendhat out. where will his votes go?

I reckon to Cleverly.

Then Jenrick or Badenoch? Badenoch also has the immigration ticket like Cleverly, but she's black. The membership won't go for that. Jenrick would be the safe option. Then the head to head and frankly I can't see how the Tories have so little quality to choose from.

[Derek27]

tugendhat out. where will his votes go?

I reckon to Cleverly.

Then Jenrick or Badenoch? Badenoch also has the immigration ticket like Cleverly, but she's black. The membership won't go for that. Jenrick would be the safe option. Then the head to head and frankly I can't see how the Tories have so little quality to choose from.

My instincts (not political knowledge) says it's in the bag for Cleverclogs. Whoever gets dropped at the next round of voting, their votes will largely go to Cleverclogs.

[Derek27]

Cleverclogs out! MPs wasn't expecting that (as I wasn't) judging by the reaction. Wondering if there was some tactical voting with Cleverclogs' supporters lending their vote to another candidate.

It's anyone's guess who the Tory membership will vote for. At least it can't be worse than Lettuce Lizz, but the Tories will have another nutcase leading them, whichever of the two it is.

[Derek27]

Cleverclogs has actually lost votes since the last round. Unless his supporters have changed their minds, it can surely only be down to tactical voting.

[Archery1969]

Cleverclogs has actually lost votes since the last round. Unless his supporters have changed their minds, it can surely only be down to tactical voting.

Jenrick will win by a mile. From my experience, the membership are not going to vote for a person of colour.

[greenmark]

I confess I'm stunned by Cleverly being eliminated. It would signal the Tories heading right to counter Reform. But right is the current trend. Fortunately they have no say for 5 years.

[jamesedwards]

I have a legacy bet I'd forgotten about in this market. Looks like I'm onto a winner. Will pay for a McDs meal (almost)

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds
Backer's stake
Payout
Liability
Liz Truss
298.5
£6.00
£1,785.00

My Liz Truss lay is looking better and better.

[Derek27]

Understatement of the year from Jenrick: We didn't get everything right when we were in government.