Would Betfair hire me? Generated 2M turnover, 24k commission

[Crazyskier]

Much depends on what negative value BF place on the unknown amount of lost commission from now-defunct users whom your trading chases away in perpetuity.

Now that's a very insightful question, well put.

CS

[DefInvestor]

The problem is when losers lose too fast.

This alone would be good for BF, as they’d get their commission faster.

They exit the eco system and liquidity starts to die.

By having only losers on the platform, it takes longer for comission to eat them .

Interesting theory - it could be true, let’s call it Theory No. 1.
On the other hand, if someone is losing fast, he might have problems with financial management (overbetting). In extreme case, someone always goes all-in. I don’t see directly how the absence of pros would help in such a situation.

That’s why I personally lean toward another theory. Specifically, I think the first theory might be a rumor, intentionally spread by BF among premium users to justify the PC.

[sionascaig]

The interesting bit is your margin net of commission.

That and how quickly you can churn capital is what will give you the freedom to do what you want.

PS: Not sure why you consider syndicates "shady". It's really just a collection of individuals that come together each bringing something different to the party, e.g. capital, data analysis, technical solutions etc. It's probably the easiest way for you to find / define a role that suits you.

[DefInvestor]

The interesting bit is your margin net of commission.

It's simple - 3,4%

That and how quickly you can churn capital is what will give you the freedom to do what you want.

I have now multiplied my starting capital by 9 since the beginning of the year. However, it’s not linearly scalable, because many tennis markets lack sufficient liquidity.

PS: Not sure why you consider syndicates "shady". It's really just a collection of individuals that come together each bringing something different to the party, e.g. capital, data analysis, technical solutions etc. It's probably the easiest way for you to find / define a role that suits you.

Ok, I don’t know much about syndicates. In a way, I’m a syndicate in myself and don’t see why I’d need one. What I’m looking for is a serious company that offers an official job while allowing me to keep my independent lifestyle. A place where I could communicate in terms of bets and probabilities. I wouldn’t want to write code for them or to devops their systems; my output would be bets or probabilities. It’s the perfect job model for me. No more endless discussions - the results speak for themselves: those who don’t put in the effort lose fast.

[Fugazi]

The problem is when losers lose too fast.

This alone would be good for BF, as they’d get their commission faster.

They exit the eco system and liquidity starts to die.

By having only losers on the platform, it takes longer for comission to eat them .

Interesting theory - it could be true, let’s call it Theory No. 1.
On the other hand, if someone is losing fast, he might have problems with financial management (overbetting). In extreme case, someone always goes all-in. I don’t see directly how the absence of pros would help in such a situation.

That’s why I personally lean toward another theory. Specifically, I think the first theory might be a rumor, intentionally spread by BF among premium users to justify the PC.

A better example is in poker. You want the awful players winning some of the time so they keep coming back

Obliterate them every game they quickly disappear. Then all you have left is the good players who dont want to play each other, so they leave also.

[jamesedwards]

Let's say 2 players have got £10 each, and they play against each other on a coin toss for £2 stakes on Betfair exchange.

In example A; assume wins are equally distributed (win for P1, then win for P2 etc). Eventually they will run out of stake money due to the commission collected by Betfair. In this example the game will end after 303 rounds with P1 on £5.92 and P2 on £1.96 and Betfair will have collected £12.12 in commission.

In example B, assume P1 has a 10% advantage (P1 wins 11/20). In this example the game will end after just 40 rounds with P1 on £17.12 and P2 on £1.28, and Betfair will have collected just £1.60 in commission.

[CloseBets]

Ok, I don’t know much about syndicates. In a way, I’m a syndicate in myself and don’t see why I’d need one. What I’m looking for is a serious company that offers an official job while allowing me to keep my independent lifestyle. A place where I could communicate in terms of bets and probabilities. I wouldn’t want to write code for them or to devops their systems; my output would be bets or probabilities. It’s the perfect job model for me. No more endless discussions - the results speak for themselves: those who don’t put in the effort lose fast.

If your value lies in your ability to predict winning bets then maybe the simplest thing is to simply sell them on. Plenty of tipster sites already out there making money, if you results are good enough you'd soon pick up and retain subscribers if the right effort was put into marketing. And if nothing comes from it, setting up a website and a bit of promo won't have cost you much.

If you still believe Betfair may hire you then the easiest thing would be to simply approach your account manager. To have an account manager after 3 months let alone be invited to lunch is some feat, they can only say no.

[Fugazi]

Let's say 2 players have got £10 each, and they play against each other on a coin toss for £2 stakes on Betfair exchange.

In example A; assume wins are equally distributed (win for P1, then win for P2 etc). Eventually they will run out of stake money due to the commission collected by Betfair. In this example the game will end after 303 rounds with P1 on £5.92 and P2 on £1.96 and Betfair will have collected £12.12 in commission.

In example B, assume P1 has a 10% advantage (P1 wins 11/20). In this example the game will end after just 40 rounds with P1 on £17.12 and P2 on £1.28, and Betfair will have collected just £1.60 in commission.

This.

[Fugazi]

What does a Betfair account manager do???

[weemac]

What does a Betfair account manager do???

Spends your PC payments on lunching prospective new employees.

[DefInvestor]

A better example is in poker. You want the awful players winning some of the time so they keep coming back

Obliterate them every game they quickly disappear. Then all you have left is the good players who dont want to play each other, so they leave also.

Maybe something similar happened to Pinnacle. They used to have better odds on tennis in the past.
But I think the role of skill in poker is much higher than in betting. In poker, you can let someone win when you’re sitting at the same table as them. On Betfair, if I offer high odds that still have -EV for the opponent, I’m encouraging them to lose. But I wouldn’t know how I could let an "awful player" win. If I intentionally offered odds that were too high to lose money, a professional's bot would likely scoop it up first.

[Fugazi]

A better example is in poker. You want the awful players winning some of the time so they keep coming back

Obliterate them every game they quickly disappear. Then all you have left is the good players who dont want to play each other, so they leave also.

Maybe something similar happened to Pinnacle. They used to have better odds on tennis in the past.
But I think the role of skill in poker is much higher than in betting. In poker, you can let someone win when you’re sitting at the same table as them. On Betfair, if I offer high odds that still have -EV for the opponent, I’m encouraging them to lose. But I wouldn’t know how I could let an "awful player" win. If I intentionally offered odds that were too high to lose money, a professional's bot would likely scoop it up first.

You can't let your opponent win on Betfair. Thats why they just exploit you with comission til you leave or they're outrageously profiting off you.

As a side note..
I was making a couple of quid per hour playing poker. Nobody has a big enough edge to start letting someone win. The way poker moderates itself:

All good players - good players leave as they see the edge is gone
Replaced by mostly bad players
Good players return spotting an edge has appeared again
Bad players run out of money
Good players only remain
Cycle repeats.

[DefInvestor]

Let's say 2 players have got £10 each, and they play against each other on a coin toss for £2 stakes on Betfair exchange.

In example A; assume wins are equally distributed (win for P1, then win for P2 etc). Eventually they will run out of stake money due to the commission collected by Betfair. In this example the game will end after 303 rounds with P1 on £5.92 and P2 on £1.96 and Betfair will have collected £12.12 in commission.

In example B, assume P1 has a 10% advantage (P1 wins 11/20). In this example the game will end after just 40 rounds with P1 on £17.12 and P2 on £1.28, and Betfair will have collected just £1.60 in commission.

Thanks, that's a great demonstration - I understand now. In this model, I’m essentially a poacher, overfishing the seas with no added value for Betfair.
Only two remarks:
1) In Example A, they would rarely play 303 rounds in real life. After the first 40 rounds, one of them is likely to get lucky and end up ahead, perhaps 22 to 18, similar to Example B.
2) A 10% advantage in the long run is enormous; if it exists at all, it wouldn’t be in large markets.

But I understood the principle. Quantifying it is challenging, though. I suspect that in real life, the ratio is much lower than 8 to 1.

[DefInvestor]

What does a Betfair account manager do???

Spends your PC payments on lunching prospective new employees.

... and applying bonuses

[Fugazi]

Let's say 2 players have got £10 each, and they play against each other on a coin toss for £2 stakes on Betfair exchange.

In example A; assume wins are equally distributed (win for P1, then win for P2 etc). Eventually they will run out of stake money due to the commission collected by Betfair. In this example the game will end after 303 rounds with P1 on £5.92 and P2 on £1.96 and Betfair will have collected £12.12 in commission.

In example B, assume P1 has a 10% advantage (P1 wins 11/20). In this example the game will end after just 40 rounds with P1 on £17.12 and P2 on £1.28, and Betfair will have collected just £1.60 in commission.

Thanks, that's a great demonstration - I understand now. In this model, I’m essentially a poacher, overfishing the seas with no added value for Betfair.
Only two remarks:
1) In Example A, they would rarely play 303 rounds in real life. After the first 40 rounds, one of them is likely to get lucky and end up ahead, perhaps 22 to 18, similar to Example B.
2) A 10% advantage in the long run is enormous; if it exists at all, it wouldn’t be in large markets.

But I understood the principle. Quantifying it is challenging, though. I suspect that in real life, the ratio is much lower than 8 to 1.

Im confused how you are doing so well on Betfair but don't seem to be aware of some fundamental principles

However, I guess if you are more data science based and algorithms then you can profit without knowing that kinda stuff by just running thousands of iterations of a system until it hits a profitable combination