Front Runners - How Important?

[Fugazi]

Part of this is because the actually start of a NH race, isn't easily definable.

It can be even less definable depending on the starter or their mood. I remember watching one of the big 2, either Chelt or Aintree a couple of years ago and the starter on the day pulled them back a load of times for false starts/one trotting not walking/1 sideways etc.

Your frontrunner could be lined up for a great start with clear grass ahead, then have a false start and only end up in midfield when the "real" race starts.

But if your edge if on a good start and you place a bet with some juicy +EV, then you can probably afford the slip ups where the starter isnt happy etc

[Blondie]

Part of this is because the actually start of a NH race, isn't easily definable.

It can be even less definable depending on the starter or their mood. I remember watching one of the big 2, either Chelt or Aintree a couple of years ago and the starter on the day pulled them back a load of times for false starts/one trotting not walking/1 sideways etc.

Your frontrunner could be lined up for a great start with clear grass ahead, then have a false start and only end up in midfield when the "real" race starts.

Oh yes i get it now, I've seen similar and can imagine that being a pain if you're backing a front runner to trade in play!

[Blondie]

Part of this is because the actually start of a NH race, isn't easily definable.

It can be even less definable depending on the starter or their mood. I remember watching one of the big 2, either Chelt or Aintree a couple of years ago and the starter on the day pulled them back a load of times for false starts/one trotting not walking/1 sideways etc.

Your frontrunner could be lined up for a great start with clear grass ahead, then have a false start and only end up in midfield when the "real" race starts.

But if your edge if on a good start and you place a bet with some juicy +EV, then you can probably afford the slip ups where the starter isnt happy etc

EV? Expected Value?

[Fugazi]

It can be even less definable depending on the starter or their mood. I remember watching one of the big 2, either Chelt or Aintree a couple of years ago and the starter on the day pulled them back a load of times for false starts/one trotting not walking/1 sideways etc.

Your frontrunner could be lined up for a great start with clear grass ahead, then have a false start and only end up in midfield when the "real" race starts.

But if your edge if on a good start and you place a bet with some juicy +EV, then you can probably afford the slip ups where the starter isnt happy etc

EV? Expected Value?

Yes

[Morrid4]

Hi all,

Interesting discussion and just a few quick thoughts on this:
I've been trading front runners now for about 18 months and while that qualifies me for nothing in particular (time spent ≠ expertise!), I have learned a lot in that time which is starting to pay off now.
As Peter and others have mentioned the ATR pace maps are a good guide but I would trial a lot of other resources and take note of them and how they perform. This takes time and effort and there is as usual little shortcuts in that department, or at least you will not learn a lot by just listening to one expert and not putting in your own analysis and effort.
I would also mention Caanberry's daily picks which he publishes after 10am for free daily. Again not a bible or certainty but more hits than misses. There are a lot of others but they are two I would have a look at daily.

Now the trickiest part. The actual conditions of the race itself. I was asked by someone much more experienced than me lately if flat is 'easier' than NH? My answer was yes but I have since thought to myself that its actually very hard to say what is easiest and as with all open questions.....it depends!

You mentioned on the original post about the front runner affecting pre-off and I would agree with the person who said it can in the last 30 secs. There are certain horses in National Hunt (and usually in Ireland...possibly due to lower volumes to that point) who will plunge significantly before the off once it is clear they are lining towards the front. Providing they aren't challenged for the lead, people can then trade out their profit at this stage but of course if it streaks off and pops the first the move can continue. It almost always reverses soon after.

Then there is the factor of the type of race it is? If it is a 3m 4f chase in the mud then the frontie might move a little but he isn't going to drop 20 points (or in the pre-off period) just because he is at the front especially if the favourite has jumped ok and it sitting in 2nd. In a 5f at Beverley if the front runner is drawn low and pops out well to grab the rail it will tumble quickly.
Track is also key as front runners at the likes of Newcastle and Kempton Park on the flat often don't shorten at all as they are known tracks where the field usually catches them late on.

Finally there are a lot of other factors, volume, liquidity, clashes with other races just finishing, jockey, race type (fronties in 1m4f races often drift early)

I know some of this was not the original question but hope it is of some interest. Just my random observations.
Dave

[Blondie]

Hi all,

Interesting discussion and just a few quick thoughts on this:
I've been trading front runners now for about 18 months and while that qualifies me for nothing in particular (time spent ≠ expertise!), I have learned a lot in that time which is starting to pay off now.
As Peter and others have mentioned the ATR pace maps are a good guide but I would trial a lot of other resources and take note of them and how they perform. This takes time and effort and there is as usual little shortcuts in that department, or at least you will not learn a lot by just listening to one expert and not putting in your own analysis and effort.
I would also mention Caanberry's daily picks which he publishes after 10am for free daily. Again not a bible or certainty but more hits than misses. There are a lot of others but they are two I would have a look at daily.

Now the trickiest part. The actual conditions of the race itself. I was asked by someone much more experienced than me lately if flat is 'easier' than NH? My answer was yes but I have since thought to myself that its actually very hard to say what is easiest and as with all open questions.....it depends!

You mentioned on the original post about the front runner affecting pre-off and I would agree with the person who said it can in the last 30 secs. There are certain horses in National Hunt (and usually in Ireland...possibly due to lower volumes to that point) who will plunge significantly before the off once it is clear they are lining towards the front. Providing they aren't challenged for the lead, people can then trade out their profit at this stage but of course if it streaks off and pops the first the move can continue. It almost always reverses soon after.

Then there is the factor of the type of race it is? If it is a 3m 4f chase in the mud then the frontie might move a little but he isn't going to drop 20 points (or in the pre-off period) just because he is at the front especially if the favourite has jumped ok and it sitting in 2nd. In a 5f at Beverley if the front runner is drawn low and pops out well to grab the rail it will tumble quickly.
Track is also key as front runners at the likes of Newcastle and Kempton Park on the flat often don't shorten at all as they are known tracks where the field usually catches them late on.

Finally there are a lot of other factors, volume, liquidity, clashes with other races just finishing, jockey, race type (fronties in 1m4f races often drift early)

I know some of this was not the original question but hope it is of some interest. Just my random observations.
Dave

Some interesting stuff there thanks for posting

[wearthefoxhat]

Now the trickiest part. The actual conditions of the race itself. I was asked by someone much more experienced than me lately if flat is 'easier' than NH? My answer was yes but I have since thought to myself that its actually very hard to say what is easiest and as with all open questions.....it depends!

Track is also key as front runners at the likes of Newcastle and Kempton Park on the flat often don't shorten at all as they are known tracks where the field usually catches them late on.

I'd say the easiest is flat over the jumps, but you need to work a little harder to understand the topography of the track(s), if a horse prefers left or right handed track, and the likely impact of the draw.

Jumps may appear easier, as the market is slower to move due to the longer distance, but you are at the mercy of those with faster pictures, or access to drone footage..etc The same can be said about the flat, but with a little research, you can capture the best prices pre-off.

[Morrid4]

Yep, wouldn't disagree with that.
I wrote a long post there (started to feel too long!) and never mentioned jockey style, draw, topography, going, not to mention a host of other factors such as has the front running worked for the horse or has front running actually shown poor results over being held up. Hoods coming off late is a real bugbear for me too. It's an endless list really.

As with all strategies, a pre ordained plan with an exit strategy (obviously not a lot you can do if it Refuses to race!) is fundamental. I find with in running if you are trying to make a decision based on the quick changing circumstances it needs to be kept very simple. Using servants and rules has been very helpful in that regard but none of them are fool proof.