UK General Election 2029 - Trading ONLY thread

[greenmark]

Reform are now ahead of Conservatives in the 'most seats' market. Farage under 4 to be next PM. Boris Johnson trading as low as 10 last week.

Hung parliament is almost a certainty IMO unless there is some party alliance or major Conservative shift to the right. Most likely we'll end up with some form of right wing Conservative/Reform coalition government.


z78.JPG

Farage may seduce some

Reform are just three per cent away from getting 169 seats in the Commons
Labour are panicking

But Reform have no policies.

[ForFolksSake]

Farage may seduce some

Reform are just three per cent away from getting 169 seats in the Commons
Labour are panicking

But Reform have no policies.

https://www.reformparty.uk/policies

[Euler]

The momentum is firmly with reform. People hate Labour, not sure about Conservatives and want change. A'la MAGA. It's that simple.

[greenmark]

Reform are just three per cent away from getting 169 seats in the Commons
Labour are panicking

But Reform have no policies.

https://www.reformparty.uk/policies

Thanks for that. If we vote for Farage's vision we are truly screwed. His brexit initiative has knocked billions off our GDP. Also increased non-EU immigration. He's a twat.

[ForFolksSake]

But Reform have no policies.

https://www.reformparty.uk/policies

He's a twat.

Where have you been for the past 25 years

Labour/Tories are the twats

The EU can marry up with Putin

I'll settle for England marrying up with Trump
( Starmer and poor old Scotland can't make their minds up who to marry ? ? : )

[staker72]

Reform will not do as well as polling currently suggests. Agree it tends to be a protest vote. A lot of the labour vote was only because of a campaign which had a lot of catchphrases and attacks but little of substance. Even then they got less votes than Corbyn. I am not sure they would get as many votes this week. Apart from some bizarre policies they are clearly demonstrating the issue with lack of experience.

Currently no one has really attacked Reform other than pointing out Voting reform was really voting Labour. Labour were chilled thinking they would mainly take Conservative votes. That will change by the next election. Both main parties will focus heavily on them.

Assuming they take a couple of councils in Mays elections and become a significant grouping in some others then I expect the fireworks to start. Watch for various resignations and expulsions. They will be unable to run any councils they take control of. That takes experience, commitment & teamwork
.
Therefore by the next election both main parties will be able to point to reform lead councils as a warning, highlight some strange bills they have tried to introduce and question how effective 4 experienced MP's & 300+ newbies will fare against the Sir Humphry types. (yes I know he's fictional but surprising accurate in many ways)

If you consider that Most parliamentary candidate's have been in their respective parties for years and worked their way up and proven teamwork & commitment and they still behave like a bunch of spoiled children when they don't get their own way then imagine what MP's will be like that were retired last week.

That all pre-supposes they keep Farage, without him they are just noise. Labour will have also increased the deposit by then to discourage some of the random candidates that took some votes from them.

Also don't forget people have short memories, they voted labour despite the dire straits they left the UK in financially. It was still in better shape than the left it 14 years ago despite Brexit., Covid and Ukraine. People will forget the problem Conservatives had, real & imaginary. Only time will tell if Labour get their act together in time

[Michael5482]

Reform will not do as well as polling currently suggests. Agree it tends to be a protest vote. A lot of the labour vote was only because of a campaign which had a lot of catchphrases and attacks but little of substance. Even then they got less votes than Corbyn. I am not sure they would get as many votes this week. Apart from some bizarre policies they are clearly demonstrating the issue with lack of experience.

Currently no one has really attacked Reform other than pointing out Voting reform was really voting Labour. Labour were chilled thinking they would mainly take Conservative votes. That will change by the next election. Both main parties will focus heavily on them.

Assuming they take a couple of councils in Mays elections and become a significant grouping in some others then I expect the fireworks to start. Watch for various resignations and expulsions. They will be unable to run any councils they take control of. That takes experience, commitment & teamwork
.
Therefore by the next election both main parties will be able to point to reform lead councils as a warning, highlight some strange bills they have tried to introduce and question how effective 4 experienced MP's & 300+ newbies will fare against the Sir Humphry types. (yes I know he's fictional but surprising accurate in many ways)

If you consider that Most parliamentary candidate's have been in their respective parties for years and worked their way up and proven teamwork & commitment and they still behave like a bunch of spoiled children when they don't get their own way then imagine what MP's will be like that were retired last week.

That all pre-supposes they keep Farage, without him they are just noise. Labour will have also increased the deposit by then to discourage some of the random candidates that took some votes from them.

Also don't forget people have short memories, they voted labour despite the dire straits they left the UK in financially. It was still in better shape than the left it 14 years ago despite Brexit., Covid and Ukraine. People will forget the problem Conservatives had, real & imaginary. Only time will tell if Labour get their act together in time

Reform are well beyond a protest vote and have been for some time anyone who concludes anything different is naive. The Tory's and Labour have been caught napping and the Reform horse has bolted.

Who is going to attack Reform and attack them with what when they have never been in Government? Tory's job as opposition is to fight the Government and they can't do that let alone take Farage on. As for Labour they are in Government so don't need to attack anyone but may be forced to try to take Farage on (they'll fail), they should be concentrating on governance but are not doing a good job at all.

In relation to councils Tory or Labour haven't covered themselves in glory at local level for years so Reform don't need to reach a high bar to be better but obviously that remains to be seen.

Farage has got the Tory's dancing on a string while taking on Labour on the big issues. Look at today council elections postponed/cancelled and an hour later bang live streamed press conference with major press calling Starmer a dictator while the Tory's cower under a chair. Wether anyone likes Farage or his politics isn't my point my point he's a seasoned operator and 2 steps ahead of them in all in Westminster.

I'm sticking with my Reform Tory's dutch something will give on the right of politics at some point and it'll destroy Labour to pieces.

[ForFolksSake]

del

[ForFolksSake]

He's a twat.

Where have you been for the past 25 years

Labour/Tories are the twats

The EU can marry up with Putin

I'll settle for England marrying up with Trump
( Starmer and poor old Scotland can't make their minds up who to marry ? ? : )

Keir Starmer has been told to get off the fence and "take sides" in the looming trade war between the US and EU.

Sandro Gozi, the European Parliament's "Brexit reset" point man, has warned the Prime Minister he will "have to make a choice" between the two alliances.

[sionascaig]

Keir Starmer has been told to get off the fence and "take sides" in the looming trade war between the US and EU.

Sandro Gozi, the European Parliament's "Brexit reset" point man, has warned the Prime Minister he will "have to make a choice" between the two alliances.

If your point is, in the runup to next election closer ties with EU will be in the mix I think your are right.

1. SNP & Liberals will push it as a point of difference & to put pressure on labour
2. Conservative & Reform will push it as a reason to not vote labour
3. Labour will have an argument amongst themselves & how big it gets depends on 1 & 2

On a trading front, if Conservatives had better leaders I see no reason why they couldn't poll more support but, as has been said above, Farage (with very limited resources), is able to run circles round them.. Can't see Kemi lasting as just not up to challenging Stammer never mind Farage. That said, it is really not clear who could replace her..

Time to look at the next conservative leader market !

[ForFolksSake]

Keir Starmer has been told to get off the fence and "take sides" in the looming trade war between the US and EU.

Sandro Gozi, the European Parliament's "Brexit reset" point man, has warned the Prime Minister he will "have to make a choice" between the two alliances.

If your point is, in the runup to next election closer ties with EU will be in the mix I think your are right.

1. SNP & Liberals will push it as a point of difference & to put pressure on labour
2. Conservative & Reform will push it as a reason to not vote labour
3. Labour will have an argument amongst themselves & how big it gets depends on 1 & 2

On a trading front, if Conservatives had better leaders I see no reason why they couldn't poll more support but, as has been said above, Farage (with very limited resources), is able to run circles round them.. Can't see Kemi lasting as just not up to challenging Stammer never mind Farage. That said, it is really not clear who could replace her..

Time to look at the next conservative leader market !

Tories and Reform will merge putting Farage on course to become next PM

Labour are 's

[Michael5482]

Keir Starmer has been told to get off the fence and "take sides" in the looming trade war between the US and EU.

Sandro Gozi, the European Parliament's "Brexit reset" point man, has warned the Prime Minister he will "have to make a choice" between the two alliances.

If your point is, in the runup to next election closer ties with EU will be in the mix I think your are right.

1. SNP & Liberals will push it as a point of difference & to put pressure on labour
2. Conservative & Reform will push it as a reason to not vote labour
3. Labour will have an argument amongst themselves & how big it gets depends on 1 & 2

On a trading front, if Conservatives had better leaders I see no reason why they couldn't poll more support but, as has been said above, Farage (with very limited resources), is able to run circles round them.. Can't see Kemi lasting as just not up to challenging Stammer never mind Farage. That said, it is really not clear who could replace her..

Time to look at the next conservative leader market !

James Cleverly is fav for the next Tory leader on the exchange closely followed by Nigel Farage Only £1,200 matched on it mind.

There is nothing the Tory's have to take on Farage. He'll just exploit the Tory's when Kemi goes there in chaos etc etc They are still split down the middle with what I'd call conservative Tory's but Reform hold the conservative policy's the other half are liberals and it's them that are killing the party. It's difficult to see a future for them the way things are going.

Labour are a strange one Starmer has his backbenchers at his beck and call but for how long I don't know because they have to go home from Westminster and face their electorate and most are now not happy after winter fuel, farmer tax etc. I see today Labour have launched Reform style slogan/social media campaign using the Union Jack which looks a bit desperate tbh.

In the meantime Farage is just sat smoking cigars.

[sionascaig]

Screenshot 2025-02-13 200810.png

And popular vote share is Reform > Labour > Cons

[Michael5482]

Screenshot 2025-02-13 200810.png


And popular vote share is Reform > Labour > Cons

A first past the post system can't and won't work with 3 party's, it's dead in the water but have full confidence Labour or Tory's won't want to change it because it'll open them up to potential obliteration.

[jamesedwards]

Overall majority market finally up.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .243393188