Making a trading plan

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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ShaunWhite
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240Volts wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2025 8:17 pm
thanks alot peeps ill research the info you provided to get a better understanding
An edge can take time to prove itself.

Imagine a coin flip. In the short term, you might turn a profit (or a loss) by backing at 1.9 or laying at 2.1 if 7 out of 10 flips land on heads. However, over hundreds of flips, you'd inevitably lose because the true probability of heads is 50% (odds of 2.0).

Now, replace the coin with a football match, with all its complexities and variations. It can take a significant amount of time before the 'true' prices become apparent.
Anbell
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Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

Kai wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2025 2:58 pm
Kai wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2025 1:09 pm
Results - Variance = Edge
Actually I could probably expand on that basic formula, and how to actually get there imo

1. Deepwork - Work = Progress
2. Progress - Distractions = Results
3. Results - Variance = Edge
4. Edge - Complacency = Mastery

Something along those lines makes complete and total sense to me
Can I frame this?
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Kai
Posts: 7051
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Anbell wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2025 9:08 am
Kai wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2025 2:58 pm
Kai wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2025 1:09 pm
Results - Variance = Edge
Actually I could probably expand on that basic formula, and how to actually get there imo

1. Deepwork - Work = Progress
2. Progress - Distractions = Results
3. Results - Variance = Edge
4. Edge - Complacency = Mastery

Something along those lines makes complete and total sense to me
Can I frame this?
Frame - Doubt = Sure!

:D

Might make that my go-to copypasta whenever someone asks how to get profitable in week one!
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jamesedwards
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Kai wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2025 1:59 pm
Frame - Doubt = Sure!
:lol:
Anbell
Posts: 2365
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

Kai wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2025 1:59 pm
Anbell wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2025 9:08 am
Kai wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2025 2:58 pm


Actually I could probably expand on that basic formula, and how to actually get there imo

1. Deepwork - Work = Progress
2. Progress - Distractions = Results
3. Results - Variance = Edge
4. Edge - Complacency = Mastery

Something along those lines makes complete and total sense to me
Can I frame this?
Frame - Doubt = Sure!

:D

Might make that my go-to copypasta whenever someone asks how to get profitable in week one!
Thanks! Actually, I'd also be interested in you fleshing it all out a bit more. There's a lot of wisdom there that you skated over quickly.
Anbell
Posts: 2365
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

Anbell wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2025 9:15 am
Kai wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2025 1:59 pm
Anbell wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2025 9:08 am


Can I frame this?
Frame - Doubt = Sure!

:D

Might make that my go-to copypasta whenever someone asks how to get profitable in week one!
Thanks! Actually, I'd also be interested in you fleshing it all out a bit more. There's a lot of wisdom there that you skated over quickly.
And I love it when you get in Essay Mode
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Kai
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Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Anbell wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2025 9:15 am
Actually, I'd also be interested in you fleshing it all out a bit more. There's a lot of wisdom there that you skated over quickly.
It's a big ask, because these are massive subjects and it's near impossible to do them justice with a random post, but I can explain what I meant at least, hopefully without rambling and memes. But I'm glad someone enjoys my ramblings, although I think I prefer brevity after all :D It's an overall conclusion you've helped me reach as well.

Because how many words-per-point should one really need to get it across? Assuming they understand the subject. As fun as long-windedness can be I'm not sure how necessary that particular over-indulgence is... and how long before the reader loses sight of the key points you were trying to convey? So it often feels a bit counter-productive.

1. Deepwork - Work = Progress

From my experience everything stems from this, because we seem quick to confuse work with progress. Simply putting in time and working without real focus might keep you busy for years (and years) to come, but I think it's just not enough to make any tangible progress. Actively seeking that elusive eureka moment through focused and uninterrupted effort has a much higher chance of success than repetitively going through the motions hoping it randomly strikes you. Our brain can only make meaningful connections with the info we provide it, surely we would prefer to feed it quality over quantity. That's why I believe the depth and focus of your work are what truly matter in the end, any market breakthroughs are much more likely to occur through deliberate practice than through passive hoping. People often say: "I have spent 5000 hours on this and got nowhere!". OK, but how many of those were deepwork hours?

2. Progress - Distractions = Results

Then whatever progress you initially make will probably fizzle out (or take forever) unless you minimize or eliminate your biggest distractions. I don't know any other way to convert that tangible progress into actual results. I suppose progress is basically just potential until you strip away the distractions that slow it down and chip away at your focus. And that focus is super easy to lose in today's noise filled daily life. When you build some hard-earned momentum one of the very last things you want to do is check your phone every 10 minutes. Or in my case, post another stupid meme that no one asked for. If you keep starting and stopping how's the brain ever going to reach any meaningful conclusions, and then how are you supposed to reach your destination?

3. Results - Variance = Edge

If you can consistently achieve good results then you've probably got yourself an edge. This is what OP wanted clarification on, but there are a couple of steps before getting there, hence my initial post. In any case, getting good results isn't enough, you obviously need to separate luck from skill. Because variance can make anyone look like an absolute genius or a complete fool, at least in the short term! So once you strip away the randomness what's left is the real measure of your skill, and your advantage over the market, aka edge. This part has been well covered in this thread already, from a lot of different people and angles, which hopefully was helpful to OP and others.

4. Edge - Complacency = Mastery

Sadly, mastery means never ceasing to be a student. Once you have your edge the work doesn't stop there, this is actually where the real work starts, as annoyingly as that sounds. You cannot afford much complacency at all, because it will only water down your edge and it's likely to naturally erode over time as well. The moment you get comfortable and stop refining your trading process your advantage starts slipping away, often without you even noticing it, until it's too late. When athletes say that reaching the top was hard, but staying at the top is harder, they really mean that. Markets evolve, liquidity dries up, competition gets sharper, and yesterday's strats won't alwasy work tomorrow, there's no such guarantee. You have no choice but to stay vigilant, but at least you already know how to get there.

Btw I thought about putting "Consistency" at the end but opted for "Mastery" instead since it made more sense at the time and not much point revising now, but I'm very much open to different opinions and takes on these little formulas.
Anbell
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Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

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240Volts
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thanks for that explanation
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Euler
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Great post there!
Fugazi
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"Actively seeking that elusive eureka moment through focused and uninterrupted effort has a much higher chance of success than repetitively going through the motions hoping it randomly strikes you. "

This. You're talking about specific practice. What this actually means is doing the boring stuff. Collecting data, analysing. What most do (including me) is spend months / years clicking away at the ladder or punting on random automations because it's easier work. Cognitive dissonance allows us to keep randomly clicking ladders or trial and error of automations convincing ourselves we don't need to do the boring work.

Its debated that it takes 10,000 hours specific practice to master a skill (J.North).

40 hours a week , for one year is 2000 hours, approximately. To name and fame, I'm sure Peter, Linus, Shaun, Kai etc have done their time.

But the good news, is you can be profitable long before you have "mastered" the skill (J.North)

Reference:

"An overview and critique of the '10,000 hours rule' and 'Theory of Deliberate Practice'" J.North
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