US Open - Oakmont

[Euler]

The beast awaits..... as do the Church pews.

Anybody under par probably wins!

score by three hole grouping.png

Chance of a dropped shot.png

[henbet22]

Dutch Scottie and Bryson at just under 2/1 combined?

[Euler]

On Bryson's YT channel you can see him hit a practice round there.

[henbet22]

Or maybe Bryson w/o Scheffler at 7

[Euler]

Somebody has taken some big chunks on Scottie

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[Mike Oxlong]

Some tough pin positions for round 1!

[Euler]

I saw a promo video on socials yesterday where most pros were saying a bogey golfer would hit 120-150 for a round there.

[Lynskey888]

Rory shot 81 in practice last Monday so I can well believe that.

[Euler]

Always surprised at how little interest there is in Golf trading as each major is more or less a slam dunk for me. So many opportunities are created in each tournament.

I think maybe having to lay at high prices is off-putting?

[sionascaig]

It seems a surprisingly ungappy market, at lest compared to the Masters?

[Euler]

McIlroy had a bad attitude in the press conference and a bad practice round.

[TupleVision]

Always surprised at how little interest there is in Golf trading as each major is more or less a slam dunk for me. So many opportunities are created in each tournament.

I think maybe having to lay at high prices is off-putting?

This.

A half decent model and fixed liability to lay at larger odds and you can do very nicely week on week if you're happy to take value and not really "trade" in the traditional sense other than backing back and taking smaller losses if you need to. I've found it a lot easier to model than football and running a Dutch laying system lends itself perfectly to golf.

[Euler]

Positive movers on day one. Profit to a level £10 stake.

Player	Opening Odds	Current Odds	£ Profit
Jon Rahm	15.5	6.6	13.48
Collin Morikawa	29	15.5	8.71
Viktor Hovland	75	42	7.86
Russell Henley	90	40	12.50
Jordan Spieth	100	46	11.74
Ben Griffin	100	30	23.33
Brooks Koepka	110	14	68.57
Cameron Young	110	60	8.33
Robert MacIntyre	150	55	17.27
Si Woo Kim	190	26	63.08
Sungjae Im	230	28	72.14
Brian Harman	250	170	4.71
J.J Spaun	260	15	163.33
Denny McCarthy	300	90	23.33
Rasmus Højgaard	310	170	8.24
Adam Scott	260	75	24.67
Thomas Detry	360	80	35.00
Marc Leishman	400	210	9.05
Ryan Gerard	450	300	5.00
Carlos Ortiz	450	110	30.91
Emiliano Grillo	420	210	10.00
Bud Cauley	430	110	29.09
Tom Kim	480	470	0.21
Matt Wallace	520	380	3.68
Victor Perez	520	330	5.76
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	650	85	66.47
Matthieu Pavon	750	320	13.44
Sam Stevens	910	560	6.25
Jacob Bridgeman	870	740	1.76
Jackson Koivun	970	920	0.54
Thriston Lawrence	1000	90	101.11

[TupleVision]

Data Dump from my own model end of R1 if anyone is interested

Rahm | Score: 74.77 Model: 54.33% Market: 14.71% Edge: +39.62% FairOdds: 3.33 LiveOdds: 6.80 EV: +2.694
Scheffler | Score: 65.66 Model: 9.53% Market: 12.50% Edge: -2.97% FairOdds: 9.75 LiveOdds: 8.00 EV: -0.238
Spaun | Score: 28.69 Model: 41.20% Market: 6.90% Edge: +34.30% FairOdds: 6.05 LiveOdds: 14.50 EV: +4.974
Koepka | Score: 0.00 Model: 41.20% Market: 6.45% Edge: +34.75% FairOdds: 6.35 LiveOdds: 15.50 EV: +5.386
Morikawa | Score: 49.94 Model: 40.87% Market: 6.25% Edge: +34.62% FairOdds: 6.51 LiveOdds: 16.00 EV: +5.540
DeChambeau | Score: 53.31 Model: 5.11% Market: 4.35% Edge: +0.76% FairOdds: 20.59 LiveOdds: 23.00 EV: +0.176
Kim | Score: 39.42 Model: 41.50% Market: 3.57% Edge: +37.93% FairOdds: 10.09 LiveOdds: 28.00 EV: +10.621
Im | Score: 25.85 Model: 41.20% Market: 3.33% Edge: +37.87% FairOdds: 10.70 LiveOdds: 30.00 EV: +11.360
Aberg | Score: 13.14 Model: 11.01% Market: 3.12% Edge: +7.88% FairOdds: 15.96 LiveOdds: 32.00 EV: +2.523
Griffin | Score: 29.10 Model: 41.10% Market: 3.12% Edge: +37.98% FairOdds: 11.30 LiveOdds: 32.00 EV: +12.153

[Euler]

If you had dutched anything between 100 and 1000, you would have turned 66% on your stake on day one.