Monitoring markets

[dsaunders1234]

I’d looked at scalping previously but everything I read used the term picking up pennies in front of a steam roller so glad it’s an option that could work. I agree with the idea of being right for a bit of time as opposed to right for a whole match

[Kai]

I’d looked at scalping previously but everything I read used the term picking up pennies in front of a steam roller so glad it’s an option that could work.

There's quite a few misconceptions around trading

Even if you were collecting smaller amounts it's possible to reinvest those on the same match to try and compound your winnings, very low prices regularly get overturned late in matches

But you can't do it every match or you're just going to break even! You can always browse Youtube for a bit of inspiration as well, if you look for ladder videos specifically like the one above

[dsaunders1234]

Would you look to scalp the match odds or the under markets? I monitored the under 2.5 goals at 1-1 in the man United match as I didn’t see the winner coming and was surprised how quickly the odds fell. I know trading one goal ahead is riskier.

[Kai]

People usually scalp O/U markets, with the current under in the 2nd half getting decent volume, while MO is better suited for swing trading imho

But as with anything you always have to make sure your reward outweighs your risk

[dsaunders1234]

Idk, very hard to compare speculative preoff markets with inplay markets which are directly dictated by on-pitch events and time decay.

Generally the closer it gets to kickoff the more accurate the prices tend to be. Yet, a match can begin in a way that completely defies market expectations. The more wrong the market was the faster it tries to adjust before time decay kicks in.

That's probably where the first opportunity lies, although I always thought that scalping was a decent starting point. It's still bread & butter for a lot of traders.

I agree scalping is the place to start, I started trying to predict football match outcomes and couldn't then the lightbulb moment for me was why I don't I try to be right for a shorter space of time and build out over.

Scalping is still massive part of my armoury and should be in anyones football portfolio. I'd argue it's easier than scalping any other sport as with time decay you can build confidence knowing the market direction especially in the over/Under markets.

Do you scalp with fast pictures? Or just a regular stream?

[Michael5482]

Idk, very hard to compare speculative preoff markets with inplay markets which are directly dictated by on-pitch events and time decay.

Generally the closer it gets to kickoff the more accurate the prices tend to be. Yet, a match can begin in a way that completely defies market expectations. The more wrong the market was the faster it tries to adjust before time decay kicks in.

That's probably where the first opportunity lies, although I always thought that scalping was a decent starting point. It's still bread & butter for a lot of traders.

I agree scalping is the place to start, I started trying to predict football match outcomes and couldn't then the lightbulb moment for me was why I don't I try to be right for a shorter space of time and build out over.

Scalping is still massive part of my armoury and should be in anyones football portfolio. I'd argue it's easier than scalping any other sport as with time decay you can build confidence knowing the market direction especially in the over/Under markets.

Do you scalp with fast pictures? Or just a regular stream?

I use low latency streams. If you live in the UK scalp using an analogue radio for Premier League games there is no delay in commentary people with fast pics will have an advantage as they can anticipate better but the radio is an excellent resource and never be underestimated or discounted.

You can still scalp with 5-7 second picture delays but need to build up to the and have excellent anticipation skills but you can build that over time.

If you're going to scalp Overs for example and lay them scalping I'd suggest starting by laying with liability so if a goal goes against you'll have a fixed loss more or less and not over exposing yourself.

[frankbet]

is there a device where they broadcast the match at low latency? or what do you think is the best thing to do?
I use the book streams, but obviously in matches where you need sky/dazn this is not possible, besides sky/dazn is there something faster?

[FTAcademy]

Hi all,

I have been trying to get into the world of football trading for quite some time now to no avail. I honestly take my hat off to anyone succeeding at this whether it be part time or full. I have tried the normal roots, fixed odds betting through an external provider of betfair data.I have also tried the old pre match statistics but again the more I reflect upon these the more I feel that football is more what you see happening in front of you as opposed to what should happen. I have taken a step back and have spent the last few months monitoring markets. It's great that you are reflecting on what you did wrong and also have the power to share that whit the community. I am trying to do more of Rebelo type approach (optimistic I know) but more in terms of looking for prices which seem incorrect. I have decided to focus solely on the Match Odds market for now. I have looked at pre match favourites who maybe haven’t had the best start and are being dominated or don’t look threatening and looking for a price correction in the market. I am still trying to identify when in the match this price correction happens more quickly and if starting odds matter. I.e. Will a 1.4 favourite change differently to a 1.8 favourite. With the 1.8 favourite if they drift through the crossover point of 2 will that work in my favour as opposed to waiting for a 1.4 shot to move the same amount of ticks and if this will require more or less exposure time. This is an excellent approach, more focus on trading (price movements, money flow, patterns, etc.) and not on gambling (who will score, who will win, etc.).

Another thing I have noticed is that odds on favourites who are dominating the match their odds stay stable particularly in the first half? Can anyone tell me why? Is it purely because everyone expects the goal to come? To my untrained mind this seems like a good opportunity to back as if the goal does not come there aren’t many tick that would go against you unless the underdog scores. Yes, because people continuously backing the favorite, the odds are stable (sometime even steams). There is a potential trading opportunity indeed, you just need to find your own system. Continue studying the market I would say and an "aha" moment will appear to you.

I also monitor laying the leading team when the losing team are on top and look threatening. Again unless the goal goes against you this seems a safeish play as the odds do not go drastically against you.

The more I monitor the more I see that I have been purely punting in the past. Lets say I was looking to lay the losing team when opposition were dominating or back a team who were on top when the match was tied I would take the bet and normally leave it run until the end of the match. Whereas I think (rightly or wrongly) that I should look to do this a. when it is value or b. at stages where the market is stable and the prices will not go against me too much (unless a red card or goal goes against me obviously). I think this is what Peter means by framing a trade and having a defined exit point. Again, I don’t know if what I am saying is accurate and I know that ultimately P+L is the only way to judge but am I making sense of the markets I see? I disagree here, P&L is for sure not the ultimately way to judge your trading, especially at the start of your journey. You shouldn't look for profits right away, but better for understanding the market. Maybe you've heard a lot of expressions like "Sharpen your axe before cutting the tree" or "Athlets prepare for 1 year to compete 5 minutes" or similar. But yes, most probably you've been punting all your time (as we all did). It's just how we are built and 99% of us started by gambling so it's difficult to forget that mentality. It's a good sign that you acknowledge it.

A huge thanks to anyone who reads or responds.

Hi mate,

I've left you some thought embedded into your post, in blue.

I do think you are on the right track and you should continue monitoring the markets rather than putting money in for the moment. Jump when you are confident. Try to understand first. Not every match will go in the direction you are thinking, but you only need "most", not "all". There are always "black swans", everywhere. Outlayers... Don't focus on those and don't try to explain them (at least not for the moment).

If I would give some advice, I resume to the following:

• Focus on one sport (e.g., football), one market (e.g., match odds) and one system (e.g., back underdog) until you master it and know everything about it. Don't jump from one thing to another. Focus!
  Study, study, study - markets, odds movement, money flow, volumes, time decay, etc. and understand how all these relate to each other, then...
  Practice, practice, practice - get some time in the market, you alone, no noise from outside

I do think that if you do this for one year (1-2 hours/day dedicated to sports trading), you'll be the best version of yourself and you'll be that good profits will come to you.

Wish you all the best.