hello everyone, please comment and give me advice on my tough about this
i am comparing backing over 0.5 goals VS the lay the draw return if a goal happen
fix variable:
- the strategy is looking for a late goals, entry at 60+ minutes 0-0
- draw should be layed under 2.00 (range odds taken: 1.80-2.00)
- trade out on every goals
what i see:
when i LTD those match (draw odds lay at 2.00), the over 0.5 goals is offered at 1.60 on most books (i use brokers)
whenever a goal happen and i do trade-out, the minimum payout i can get 60%+ profit from the initial stake, the later the goal, the bigger the profit
so assuming if the GOAL ACTUAL CHANCE is similar to (1.60) + avg book vigs = approx 1.7
then lay the draw is far more profitable compared to backing over 0.5 goals because i can even get 125% of the stake if i lay on 1.80 and goal happen on the lost time
am i right? i try to find why we are selecting over 0.5 goals if the lay the draw can offer far bigger profits on the same outcome (looking for 1 goal and trade out)
thank you
LTD vs backing Over 0.5 goals profitablity
I think that what you said is only theory and what you assume. Do you have some real samples? In the long-term, the return should be similar.
I don't think you'll get 60+% cashout whenever a goal happens. What if the underdog scores?
Also, what you do if there's a very quick equalizer, before you hedged you position? Over 0.5 is won, but LTD is in a losing position.
Using Soccer Mystic for Juventus - Wydad today:
If 0-0, odds for draw drop at 2.00 in min 63'. In this minute, odds for over 1.5 are 1.70. Let's say there is a goal in the 70' minute - if Juventus scores, you get around 80% return, but if Wydad scores, you get only 50% return.
Paper trade, track and analyze after 100 trades I suggest. No opinion compares to your own, real analysis.
I don't think you'll get 60+% cashout whenever a goal happens. What if the underdog scores?
Also, what you do if there's a very quick equalizer, before you hedged you position? Over 0.5 is won, but LTD is in a losing position.
Using Soccer Mystic for Juventus - Wydad today:
If 0-0, odds for draw drop at 2.00 in min 63'. In this minute, odds for over 1.5 are 1.70. Let's say there is a goal in the 70' minute - if Juventus scores, you get around 80% return, but if Wydad scores, you get only 50% return.
Paper trade, track and analyze after 100 trades I suggest. No opinion compares to your own, real analysis.
yes, i have do both in real trade and i still dont know which one is the best
1 thing for sure, for a trade that looking for a late saver goal, it is better to just back the over 0.5 instead of laying
price is not too far, and there is no risk of equalizer / lack of liquidity for trading out
1 thing for sure, for a trade that looking for a late saver goal, it is better to just back the over 0.5 instead of laying
price is not too far, and there is no risk of equalizer / lack of liquidity for trading out