LTD vs backing Over 0.5 goals profitablity

[stvlie]

hello everyone, please comment and give me advice on my tough about this

i am comparing backing over 0.5 goals VS the lay the draw return if a goal happen

fix variable:
- the strategy is looking for a late goals, entry at 60+ minutes 0-0
- draw should be layed under 2.00 (range odds taken: 1.80-2.00)
- trade out on every goals

what i see:
when i LTD those match (draw odds lay at 2.00), the over 0.5 goals is offered at 1.60 on most books (i use brokers)

whenever a goal happen and i do trade-out, the minimum payout i can get 60%+ profit from the initial stake, the later the goal, the bigger the profit
so assuming if the GOAL ACTUAL CHANCE is similar to (1.60) + avg book vigs = approx 1.7

then lay the draw is far more profitable compared to backing over 0.5 goals because i can even get 125% of the stake if i lay on 1.80 and goal happen on the lost time
am i right? i try to find why we are selecting over 0.5 goals if the lay the draw can offer far bigger profits on the same outcome (looking for 1 goal and trade out)

thank you