Predicted Goals and Over & Under Predictions - Guardian Market List Layout

[rkuk]

Wowzers ODPaul,

This all sounds very technical / complex maths.

How do you go about creating something like that? Does it require coding skills? Perhaps excel?

Thanks for sharing, hope the model is working well for you!

[ODPaul82]

Wowzers ODPaul,

This all sounds very technical / complex maths.

How do you go about creating something like that? Does it require coding skills? Perhaps excel?

Thanks for sharing, hope the model is working well for you!

The probability element can be calculated in Excel, Peter has done a video on it before https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ihkv3kSWt-Y&t=798s
I do a modified version of that.
I had mine running in Excel with a fair amount of VBA to automate the entire calculation process and then had an MS Access DB running in a loop which was calling API from somewhere to get the current goals, elapsed time and red cards.
Have recently migrated it all to C# code with SQL Server backend.

[rkuk]

Wowzers ODPaul,

This all sounds very technical / complex maths.

How do you go about creating something like that? Does it require coding skills? Perhaps excel?

Thanks for sharing, hope the model is working well for you!

The probability element can be calculated in Excel, Peter has done a video on it before https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ihkv3kSWt-Y&t=798s
I do a modified version of that.
I had mine running in Excel with a fair amount of VBA to automate the entire calculation process and then had an MS Access DB running in a loop which was calling API from somewhere to get the current goals, elapsed time and red cards.
Have recently migrated it all to C# code with SQL Server backend.

Yep....that's all above my head! lol Do you have an IT / maths background in order to do all that or is it something you have learned alongside trading?

[rkuk]

Hi all, I was looking to try the goal predictor tonight on the England Women's game but unsure if there's the data necessary or my install is incorrect. Anyone else looking at this match / able to check for me if it's not too much of an inconvenience? Just under half an hour to go before kick off

[ODPaul82]

Yep....that's all above my head! lol Do you have an IT / maths background in order to do all that or is it something you have learned alongside trading?

Full-time job is finance systems engineer for a big insurer, specialism in actuarial processes.
It goes hand in hand with trading which is forecasting & risk management, basically what is the probability of x/y/z happening out of a/b/c times.

Our company has just been brought out by another big insurer and I'll be redundant within 12-18 months which is longer than others as I built our reinsurance solution
I'll be going full time with the trading once the redundancy comes in.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/ ... 025-07-01/


My advice is don't put all your eggs in one basket as a sport, and multiple small margins add up to something bigger

[rkuk]

Yep....that's all above my head! lol Do you have an IT / maths background in order to do all that or is it something you have learned alongside trading?

Full-time job is finance systems engineer for a big insurer, specialism in actuarial processes.
It goes hand in hand with trading which is forecasting & risk management, basically what is the probability of x/y/z happening out of a/b/c times.

Our company has just been brought out by another big insurer and I'll be redundant within 12-18 months which is longer than others as I built our reinsurance solution
I'll be going full time with the trading once the redundancy comes in.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/ ... 025-07-01/


My advice is don't put all your eggs in one basket as a sport, and multiple small margins add up to something bigger

Sounds like you're very well equipped with the skills for this. I'd like to have those skills but wouldn't know where to start. Very best of luck if that redundancy does come along. Good you have foresight of what is possible / likely to happen and skills/experience for a good side hustle which may become more than a hustle. Using your own advice of eggs in more than one basket!

I'm just starting out and doing the same as most newbies I can well imagine: straight onto the ladders with horses, getting burned, trying to figure out why and then which races to focus on to minimise the risk. Then also considering preparation for the football season, but wanting some tools to help / follow along a bit. Automation and so forth feels a long way for me as I need to think 'what would / should I automate'....and then figure out if/how it is possible! Thanks for the replies and help ODPaul

[jamesedwards]

For the rules file to make it's Goal predictions you MUST have both the Match Odds and Correct Score markets for each fixture loaded into Guardian

Just checking, is this correct?

I've built something using predicted goals, and it seems to be throwing out values with just the CORRECT_SCORE markets loaded, (without MATCH_ODDS loaded). Or is it that the info in MATCH_ODDS helps to refine the predicted goals output?