Predicted Goals and Over & Under Predictions - Guardian Market List Layout

[rkuk]

Wowzers ODPaul,

This all sounds very technical / complex maths.

How do you go about creating something like that? Does it require coding skills? Perhaps excel?

Thanks for sharing, hope the model is working well for you!

[ODPaul82]

Wowzers ODPaul,

This all sounds very technical / complex maths.

How do you go about creating something like that? Does it require coding skills? Perhaps excel?

Thanks for sharing, hope the model is working well for you!

The probability element can be calculated in Excel, Peter has done a video on it before https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ihkv3kSWt-Y&t=798s
I do a modified version of that.
I had mine running in Excel with a fair amount of VBA to automate the entire calculation process and then had an MS Access DB running in a loop which was calling API from somewhere to get the current goals, elapsed time and red cards.
Have recently migrated it all to C# code with SQL Server backend.

[rkuk]

Wowzers ODPaul,

This all sounds very technical / complex maths.

How do you go about creating something like that? Does it require coding skills? Perhaps excel?

Thanks for sharing, hope the model is working well for you!

The probability element can be calculated in Excel, Peter has done a video on it before https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ihkv3kSWt-Y&t=798s
I do a modified version of that.
I had mine running in Excel with a fair amount of VBA to automate the entire calculation process and then had an MS Access DB running in a loop which was calling API from somewhere to get the current goals, elapsed time and red cards.
Have recently migrated it all to C# code with SQL Server backend.

Yep....that's all above my head! lol Do you have an IT / maths background in order to do all that or is it something you have learned alongside trading?

[rkuk]

Hi all, I was looking to try the goal predictor tonight on the England Women's game but unsure if there's the data necessary or my install is incorrect. Anyone else looking at this match / able to check for me if it's not too much of an inconvenience? Just under half an hour to go before kick off

[ODPaul82]

Yep....that's all above my head! lol Do you have an IT / maths background in order to do all that or is it something you have learned alongside trading?

Full-time job is finance systems engineer for a big insurer, specialism in actuarial processes.
It goes hand in hand with trading which is forecasting & risk management, basically what is the probability of x/y/z happening out of a/b/c times.

Our company has just been brought out by another big insurer and I'll be redundant within 12-18 months which is longer than others as I built our reinsurance solution
I'll be going full time with the trading once the redundancy comes in.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/ ... 025-07-01/


My advice is don't put all your eggs in one basket as a sport, and multiple small margins add up to something bigger

[rkuk]

Yep....that's all above my head! lol Do you have an IT / maths background in order to do all that or is it something you have learned alongside trading?

Full-time job is finance systems engineer for a big insurer, specialism in actuarial processes.
It goes hand in hand with trading which is forecasting & risk management, basically what is the probability of x/y/z happening out of a/b/c times.

Our company has just been brought out by another big insurer and I'll be redundant within 12-18 months which is longer than others as I built our reinsurance solution
I'll be going full time with the trading once the redundancy comes in.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/ ... 025-07-01/


My advice is don't put all your eggs in one basket as a sport, and multiple small margins add up to something bigger

Sounds like you're very well equipped with the skills for this. I'd like to have those skills but wouldn't know where to start. Very best of luck if that redundancy does come along. Good you have foresight of what is possible / likely to happen and skills/experience for a good side hustle which may become more than a hustle. Using your own advice of eggs in more than one basket!

I'm just starting out and doing the same as most newbies I can well imagine: straight onto the ladders with horses, getting burned, trying to figure out why and then which races to focus on to minimise the risk. Then also considering preparation for the football season, but wanting some tools to help / follow along a bit. Automation and so forth feels a long way for me as I need to think 'what would / should I automate'....and then figure out if/how it is possible! Thanks for the replies and help ODPaul

[jamesedwards]

For the rules file to make it's Goal predictions you MUST have both the Match Odds and Correct Score markets for each fixture loaded into Guardian

Just checking, is this correct?

I've built something using predicted goals, and it seems to be throwing out values with just the CORRECT_SCORE markets loaded, (without MATCH_ODDS loaded). Or is it that the info in MATCH_ODDS helps to refine the predicted goals output?

[jamesedwards]

I had a spare couple of hours on Saturday morning and thought I'd have a crack at building a simple over/under automation using the Predicted Goals feature. It's something I've been meaning to do for some time.

230 markets in on minimum stakes and it's started quite nicely.

z177.jpg

[jamesedwards]

I had a spare couple of hours on Saturday morning and thought I'd have a crack at building a simple over/under automation using the Predicted Goals feature. It's something I've been meaning to do for some time.

230 markets in on minimum stakes and it's started quite nicely.


z177.jpg

820 markets in and still going well, sitting at +45pt profit so far, on £1 stakes. Made just one simple tweak to the original rule after game 600, and it's really taken off. Will the trend hold through the weekend?

z187.jpg

r² of v1.01 was .60
r² of v1.02 is .82!

[jamesedwards]

I can tell from all the thread activity and replies that people have been waiting with breath firmly bated for my next update on this.

And the latest is..........

.......complete and total reversion to mean.

z197.jpg

If nothing else it's a great example of how many markets you need before a trend can be confirmed.

v1.03 starts this evening.

[rkuk]

Sorry to see your progress dipping there James - any updates?

I'm after a bit of help and this might not be the correct place to ask but my aim relates to this area of automation?

I've (proudly) managed to create my own filter which gets all the UK Soccer games for today and just shows the correct score and match odds markets. But it's still being a bit of an effort to get what I'm after. For example I need to click on each game, select both the markets and then add them into guardian so I can look to run the predicted goals. What I would like to be able to achieve is:

Today's football >> specific leagues (UK prem, championship, league 1&2, bundesliga, la liga etc (all the popular ones), >> correct score & match odds. Then be able to select all markets and add them into guardian as opposed to clicking a drop down for the title of each game and then selecting both markets and so on.

Is this possible to do? Hope I've explained what I mean OK.
Thanks in advance!

[jamesedwards]

Sorry to see your progress dipping there James - any updates?

I'm on my way back up (to the top! ) with v1.03.

z206.jpg

I'm after a bit of help and this might not be the correct place to ask but my aim relates to this area of automation?

I've (proudly) managed to create my own filter which gets all the UK Soccer games for today and just shows the correct score and match odds markets. But it's still being a bit of an effort to get what I'm after. For example I need to click on each game, select both the markets and then add them into guardian so I can look to run the predicted goals. What I would like to be able to achieve is:

Today's football >> specific leagues (UK prem, championship, league 1&2, bundesliga, la liga etc (all the popular ones), >> correct score & match odds. Then be able to select all markets and add them into guardian as opposed to clicking a drop down for the title of each game and then selecting both markets and so on.

Is this possible to do? Hope I've explained what I mean OK.
Thanks in advance!

Not sure for certain what you mean, but in market selection tab you can adjust the market filter to change the market tree to whatever you need. So I have it set with no grouping so all the relevant CS and O/U markets appear in one list. You then just right click, select all, then add all in one go.

z205.jpg

[rkuk]

hehe - I hope it goes to the moon for you mate!

I knew I would sound confusing. So my (hopefully) attached screengrab shows how I have managed to filter down to all UK games today, and then only the correct score and match odds for each game. But what I want to do is select specific leagues, and just import all those markets in one go. At the moment I have to click into each game, select the markets, then add them. Perhaps I'm sounding lazy, but it's a bit of a faff.

As I want leagues from different countries I might need to do one per country once I find the solution. But I was hoping there was some way of just selecting certain leagues, and certain markets in those leagues. It must be possible with this software.

[ForFolksSake]

Yep....that's all above my head! lol Do you have an IT / maths background in order to do all that or is it something you have learned alongside trading?

Full-time job is finance systems engineer for a big insurer, specialism in actuarial processes.
It goes hand in hand with trading which is forecasting & risk management, basically what is the probability of x/y/z happening out of a/b/c times.

Our company has just been brought out by another big insurer and I'll be redundant within 12-18 months which is longer than others as I built our reinsurance solution
I'll be going full time with the trading once the redundancy comes in.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/ ... 025-07-01/


My advice is don't put all your eggs in one basket as a sport, and multiple small margins add up to something bigger

... and if your new company doesn't make you redundant AI no doubt will

[jamesedwards]

hehe - I hope it goes to the moon for you mate!

I knew I would sound confusing. So my (hopefully) attached screengrab shows how I have managed to filter down to all UK games today, and then only the correct score and match odds for each game. But what I want to do is select specific leagues, and just import all those markets in one go. At the moment I have to click into each game, select the markets, then add them. Perhaps I'm sounding lazy, but it's a bit of a faff.

As I want leagues from different countries I might need to do one per country once I find the solution. But I was hoping there was some way of just selecting certain leagues, and certain markets in those leagues. It must be possible with this software.

https://youtu.be/sN-X2Q3hTyo?t=255