Is little Acorns genuine or a blag!?

[BigLarry]

Yes, it still works. I’ve been using it for the last 5 years with good results. I have logs of all the bets etc if anyone would like to see (not sure what the rules are with sharing in this forum).

For anyone interested you can use the Betfair api and automate it all too.

[BigLarry]

Just to add, in five years I had one run of “losses” up to the end of the Fibonacci series (9 losses in a row) which was the scariest moment in it.

Who knows when I’ll hit another, they must come round every so often but my bank is now easy big enough to take the hit.

[Simone]

I asked AI what this system was, here is what it said.

Little Acorns Betfair Trading System – plain English overview

In a nutshell

Little Acorns is a horse-racing lay system sold since 2003. You lay short-priced favourites on Betfair before the off and let the result stand. The vendor markets it as low liability and “trading”, but there is no in-running hedging – it is a straight lay-to-lose approach backed up by a progressive staking plan.

Core entry rules (original UK version)

1. Choose UK races only.
2. Lay the favourite when its odds are between 1.50 and 2.00.
3. Make sure the second favourite is 6.0 or shorter and the third favourite 10.0 or shorter so there are at least two realistic dangers.
4. Skip any horse marked “BF” (beaten favourite last time) in the Racing Post card.
5. Place the lay about 15 minutes before the start, confirming the odds still sit inside the 1.50-2.00 band.
Optional filter: stick to all-weather and NH bumper races if you want a slightly higher strike-rate, but you will get fewer bets.

Staking plans

The manual suggests four options; the flagship one is a Fibonacci loss-recovery ladder (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 points, then reset). The vendor says you need a 176-point bank; many experienced layers prefer 400-plus points for safety. Other options are “add the loss to the next stake”, a two-steps-back approach, or simple level stakes.

Strengths

• Liquidity is rarely an issue when laying odds-on favourites on UK racing.
• Simple rules make it easy to automate.
• Still on sale after 20-plus years, which suggests it is not outright junk.

Fragile bits to watch

• Independent tests show most of the net gain comes from the aggressive staking, not from a big edge in the selections themselves.
• An extended losing run can wipe a small bank. For example, 11 losers in a row at odds of 1.98 would eat 177 points using the standard ladder.
• Stakes escalate fast (for instance £10 becomes £55 by the eleventh step), so the psychological pressure is real.
• The market has become more efficient since 2003; always re-test on recent data before committing real money.
• Despite the sales copy, it is not “trading” in the sense of greening up – it is purely a mechanical pre-race lay system.

Verdict

Little Acorns can grind out a thin edge, but without the loss-recovery staking the advantage almost disappears. With the staking in place it behaves like a soft martingale that will eventually collide with a painful losing sequence, so you need a big enough bank and the stomach to ride out drawdowns. Treat the vendor’s compound-growth charts as marketing fluff, size your bank prudently, and you will have a modest, set-and-forget lay routine – just do not expect it to be genuine trading.

[jamesedwards]

I asked AI what this system was, here is what it said.

Little Acorns Betfair Trading System – plain English overview

In a nutshell

Little Acorns is a horse-racing lay system sold since 2003. You lay short-priced favourites on Betfair before the off and let the result stand. The vendor markets it as low liability and “trading”, but there is no in-running hedging – it is a straight lay-to-lose approach backed up by a progressive staking plan.

Core entry rules (original UK version)

1. Choose UK races only.
2. Lay the favourite when its odds are between 1.50 and 2.00.
3. Make sure the second favourite is 6.0 or shorter and the third favourite 10.0 or shorter so there are at least two realistic dangers.
4. Skip any horse marked “BF” (beaten favourite last time) in the Racing Post card.
5. Place the lay about 15 minutes before the start, confirming the odds still sit inside the 1.50-2.00 band.
Optional filter: stick to all-weather and NH bumper races if you want a slightly higher strike-rate, but you will get fewer bets.

Staking plans

The manual suggests four options; the flagship one is a Fibonacci loss-recovery ladder (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 points, then reset). The vendor says you need a 176-point bank; many experienced layers prefer 400-plus points for safety. Other options are “add the loss to the next stake”, a two-steps-back approach, or simple level stakes.

Strengths

• Liquidity is rarely an issue when laying odds-on favourites on UK racing.
• Simple rules make it easy to automate.
• Still on sale after 20-plus years, which suggests it is not outright junk.

Fragile bits to watch

• Independent tests show most of the net gain comes from the aggressive staking, not from a big edge in the selections themselves.
• An extended losing run can wipe a small bank. For example, 11 losers in a row at odds of 1.98 would eat 177 points using the standard ladder.
• Stakes escalate fast (for instance £10 becomes £55 by the eleventh step), so the psychological pressure is real.
• The market has become more efficient since 2003; always re-test on recent data before committing real money.
• Despite the sales copy, it is not “trading” in the sense of greening up – it is purely a mechanical pre-race lay system.

Verdict

Little Acorns can grind out a thin edge, but without the loss-recovery staking the advantage almost disappears. With the staking in place it behaves like a soft martingale that will eventually collide with a painful losing sequence, so you need a big enough bank and the stomach to ride out drawdowns. Treat the vendor’s compound-growth charts as marketing fluff, size your bank prudently, and you will have a modest, set-and-forget lay routine – just do not expect it to be genuine trading.

I don't see any edge here then. Based on this then it's just a watered-down martingale? Will win most of the time but will occasionally wipe you out.

[Kai]

11 pages on this but 0 pages on the compounding Cycle Methods

That is WILD

[Kai]

I asked AI what this system was, here is what it said.

Also, take this Simone

[BigLarry]

Here are some results, a good starting streak on tight parameters and you're laughing - start off with a few losses and it's squeeky bum time. With these paramters you'd need £3K bank and a steady nerve to get through a poor start. £14k for 4 years perhaps isn't life changing but adding in increasing the min stake to allow for increase bank etc you can work that up and if you run out of liquidity start offloading the rest into a decent performing ISA yadda yadda yadda.

Result Horse Race Date Stake Lay Bank Profit Step
Win Land Of Eagles Beverley 7f Mdn Stks 28-05-2022 £ 750.00 1.73 £ 712.50 £ 712.50 0
Win Al Khazneh Brighton 6f Mdn Stks 14-06-2022 £ 750.00 1.72 £ 1,425.00 £ 712.50 0
Win Absolute Queen Beverley 7f Mdn Stks 21-06-2022 £ 750.00 1.72 £ 2,137.50 £ 712.50 0
Loss Musical Romance Beverley 1m Mdn Stks 21-06-2022 £ 750.00 1.72 £ 1,597.50 £ -540.00 1
Win Shantou Express Cartmel 3m1f Nov Chs 24-06-2022 £ 1,290.00 1.72 £ 2,823.00 £ 1,225.50 0
Win Overstate Bath 1m3f Hcap 12-07-2022 £ 750.00 1.73 £ 3,535.50 £ 712.50 0
Loss Shaara Haydock 1m Nov Stks 16-07-2022 £ 750.00 1.72 £ 2,995.50 £ -540.00 1
Loss Adelisa Lingfield 1m Hcap 20-07-2022 £ 1,290.00 1.72 £ 2,066.70 £ -928.80 2
Win Mcfabulous Newbury 2m7f Nov Hcap Chs 11-02-2023 £ 2,968.80 1.73 £ 4,887.06 £ 2,820.36 0
Loss Cuban Slide Musselburgh 5f Nov Stks 15-05-2023 £ 750.00 1.72 £ 4,347.06 £ -540.00 1
Loss Pottlerath Bangor-on-Dee 3m Nov Hcap Chs 10-06-2023 £ 1,290.00 1.73 £ 3,405.36 £ -941.70 2
Win Beyond Borders Hamilton 6f Nursery 21-07-2023 £ 2,981.70 1.73 £ 6,237.98 £ 2,832.62 0
Loss Guinness Affair Market Rasen 2m1f Nov Hcap Chs 06-08-2023 £ 750.00 1.72 £ 5,697.98 £ -540.00 1
Win Paddington York 1m2f Grp 1 23-08-2023 £ 1,290.00 1.72 £ 6,923.48 £ 1,225.50 0
Win Be Aware Lingfield 2m Nov Hrd 13-02-2024 £ 750.00 1.72 £ 7,635.98 £ 712.50 0
Win Booster Bob Carlisle 2m3f Hcap Hrd 19-02-2024 £ 750.00 1.72 £ 8,348.48 £ 712.50 0
Loss Howaya Now Exeter 2m5f Mdn Hrd 07-04-2024 £ 750.00 1.73 £ 7,800.98 £ -547.50 1
Loss Insurrection Hereford 2m Nov Hrd 14-04-2024 £ 1,297.50 1.72 £ 6,866.78 £ -934.20 2
Win Stratusnine Salisbury 6f Nov Stks 11-06-2024 £ 2,981.70 1.72 £ 9,699.39 £ 2,832.62 0
Win Emaraaty Ana Beverley 5f Stks 24-09-2024 £ 750.00 1.72 £ 10,411.89 £ 712.50 0
Loss Continuance Sedgefield 2m1f Mdn Hrd 20-10-2024 £ 750.00 1.72 £ 9,871.89 £ -540.00 1
Loss Junker Dallier Bangor-on-Dee 2m Nov Hrd 13-11-2024 £ 1,290.00 1.73 £ 8,930.19 £ -941.70 2
Win Jet To Vegas Musselburgh 2m4f Mdn Hrd 09-12-2024 £ 2,981.70 1.73 £ 11,762.81 £ 2,832.62 0
Win Campaign Trail Wetherby 2m Nov Hrd 27-12-2024 £ 750.00 1.72 £ 12,475.31 £ 712.50 0
Win Surrey Belle Sedgefield 2m1f Mdn Hrd 26-01-2025 £ 750.00 1.73 £ 13,187.81 £ 712.50 0
Loss Groovy Baby Kempton 6f Nov Stks 26-02-2025 £ 750.00 1.73 £ 12,640.31 £ -547.50 1
Win Kaori Newmarket 7f Nov Stks 02-08-2025 £ 1,297.50 1.72 £ 13,872.93 £ 1,232.63 0

[Kai]

What a load of nonsense

Why do you think the thread was moved to the Loss Recovery section

Because that's the forum's recycle bin... "If lose, then martingale" is not a strat, it's risk management for the delusional

You fail at the two BASIC core principles which should be bankroll protection and loss acceptance

[BigLarry]

OK, no worries. I can only provide facts and stats but that's fair enough if you don't wish to read them.

[jamesedwards]

OK, no worries. I can only provide facts and stats but that's fair enough if you don't wish to read them.

I don't think anybody is denying your results.

The problem is there is nothing in the plan that suggests it might swing any odds in your favour. The expected long-term return is going to be negative because there is nothing to beat the commission and the spread. You're simply left with a martingale-esque staking plan which if you're lucky can cover the cracks in the short term, but the rule of numbers says it will get you in the end. You might as well be betting on roulette.

I would quit while I was ahead if I were you, before you find yourself with 8 losses in a row, £25k in the hole, and about to risk another £25k on the 9th.

[goat68]

OK, no worries. I can only provide facts and stats but that's fair enough if you don't wish to read them.

Like me when I started I didn't realize what "value" was and why I needed it....
It takes a lot of effort and time to win at this game long term

[elofan0]

It could be tweaked more than rely on the basic system, I do think it has vunerabilities , you have a cushion with the profit so hold onto it

[ruthlessimon]

I do think it has vunerabilities

The only decent logic is laying the fav <2.0, but that needs to be done smarter than just ‘place the lay about 15 minutes before the start’ ffs

The rest of it is a dog’s dinner; a hotchpotch of randomly bolted-on extras.

[wearthefoxhat]

The principle still applies, but as with some markets that change, you have to remain adaptable.

The exchanges' overnight/early markets have changed (and continue to do so) so it now comes down to the timing of entry, on a race that qualifies. This will mean that the method will find a qualifier for some and not for others.

To produce the "profits" advertised, the loss recovery element is required, so, in turn, any acceptable risks that goes with it.

One aspect of the method that not many talk about, that still holds to this day, is the filter of BF (beaten favourite). If you ask yourself why that was originally important to include, it will uncover lots of interesting research and needs to looked at separately away from the original system rules.

[BigLarry]

It's a five year dataset which I consider to be a "long enough" period to run analysis and build in as much unpredicatability as possible. Of course, at the end of the day it's gambling and there's always a chance of a bad run, just playing the maths to smooth that out as much as possible.