Football Musings
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wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3569
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Add in the odd 1-6, 1-4 result!
The only 0-0 that caught me out was Nashville SC v DC United. TG's were predicted @ 3.15 (2.55 v 0.60)
Philadelphia away @ 2.95 was wrongly priced by the market.
The overall stats so far, are quite interesting.
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firlandsfarm
- Posts: 3332
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
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wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3569
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
The main takeaway for me is that anything relating to mathematical prediction modelling, can be achieved, mainly thanks to the GPT.
Kie Miller's poisson distribution Y-T video, helped give me starting point and with a little perserverance, I was able to produce something that logically looks the part and works well.
I've also created a neat horse racing excel sheet that looks at ratings/value, and, currently in the process of a creating a cracking greyhound one too.
All of these are value based, conventional ways of betting and it's surprising how often the market is out of step and exploitable.
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wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3569
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
As we near a new Premier League season, I thought I'd test out a more conventional approach until the form settles down.
I'm re-constructing last years Championship season by converting key metrics and xG into goal comparisons, home/away. Essentially, if they were to match up in the next round of games, then the score-line is already established to aid prediction.
After 12 rounds of games (end of October), what is shown is the Home/Away goals that "should" have occurred if the key metrics were satisfied as per their probability of happening. This is in-line with how I saw the early part of the season with Middlesbro' performing well, but their league position was around 6th. Leeds were already showing up well, tracked by the usual suspects.
Also, it's easy to spot teams like Watford & Blackburn whose home form outweighed their away form and Plymouth's away form that, as we know, couldn't recover from through out the season. A team rating also helps gives some order.
Running alongside it, is the data table for home and away games. which, when updated, converts performance into points, then into goals prediction, ready for the next round of games.
The trick is to find the games where a team may have won, but the stats indicate otherwise. The market then might overbet certain teams and create value on others.
I'm re-constructing last years Championship season by converting key metrics and xG into goal comparisons, home/away. Essentially, if they were to match up in the next round of games, then the score-line is already established to aid prediction.
After 12 rounds of games (end of October), what is shown is the Home/Away goals that "should" have occurred if the key metrics were satisfied as per their probability of happening. This is in-line with how I saw the early part of the season with Middlesbro' performing well, but their league position was around 6th. Leeds were already showing up well, tracked by the usual suspects.
Also, it's easy to spot teams like Watford & Blackburn whose home form outweighed their away form and Plymouth's away form that, as we know, couldn't recover from through out the season. A team rating also helps gives some order.
Running alongside it, is the data table for home and away games. which, when updated, converts performance into points, then into goals prediction, ready for the next round of games.
The trick is to find the games where a team may have won, but the stats indicate otherwise. The market then might overbet certain teams and create value on others.
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