Kalshi and Polymarket

[megarain]

Kalshi is a newcomer to the prediction marketplace in the USA.

It regularly matches $25m on NFL games, and on Monday released same-game parlays.

Draft Kings and Flutter's share prices have been hit by about 10% due to fears they will lose market share.

The dominance of Betfair is v well on the downward spiral.

[Kai]

Interesting... so basically their 1st exchange style alternative to bookies, thx for posting

Looks like they're pushing hard into an older regulatory loophole, but it all sounds very optimistic

Unfortunately they don't accept EU customers, one would need a US social security number to register

It’s a shame they bet on the wrong football, most of the money ends up on a sport that the vast majority of Europeans don't even follow

[Euler]

Haven't heard of Kalshi before.

Followed Polymarket for ages. I should have invested when I had the chance, but such is life. Shayne has done a good job there.

[jamesedwards]

Haven't heard of Kalshi before.

Followed Polymarket for ages. I should have invested when I had the chance, but such is life. Shayne has done a good job there.

Any chance of them opening up to the UK at any point in your opinion?

I assume the Europe region is a legislative nightmare...

[Lynskey888]

From what I read it seems like Kalshi are sailing pretty close to the wind in terms of US legislation, claiming that their markets are fundamentally different to normal sports betting. Bound to catch up to them eventually, I think.

Interesting all the same.

[Naffman]

Plenty of people use Polymarket, all you need to do is transfer USDC. Problem with them is I’ve seen lots of occasions where they’ve settled the wrong result on purpose or changed the rules mid event which is cardinal sin #1.

Kalshi is by far the better product but they have a lot more hurdles to jump through regarding where you live etc. Hopefully they’ll get accepted into the UK but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

[Kai]

Kalshi is by far the better product

I'd actually have some expertise on a market like this, plus my family are AAA game devs

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgta6ontime ... te-on-time

EDIT : Way more volume on Poly tho, their graph paints a better picture : https://polymarket.com/event/gta-vi-released-in-2025

[Kai]

Hopefully they’ll get accepted into the UK but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Btw they apparently have a waiting list for international users that people can sign up for, and seem to be prepping for it, as hard as it seems due to how different their centralized model is compared to Polymarket

The owner Tarek said "TBD" a year ago, another employee said they're working on it in an AMA 6 months ago

[Naffman]

Hopefully they’ll get accepted into the UK but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Btw they apparently have a waiting list for international users that people can sign up for, and seem to be prepping for it, as hard as it seems due to how different their centralized model is compared to Polymarket

The owner Tarek said "TBD" a year ago, another employee said they're working on it in an AMA 6 months ago

Yeah I think they've got more chance than Poly coming to the UK/EU

[megarain]

There was a great podcast about a trader on Polymaket.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/b ... 0710032520

The UK exchange product has suffered from a lack of focus/incompetence/regulation/tax threats/etc etc.

It will be interesting to see how the USA marketplace evolves.