Kalshi is a newcomer to the prediction marketplace in the USA.
It regularly matches $25m on NFL games, and on Monday released same-game parlays.
Draft Kings and Flutter's share prices have been hit by about 10% due to fears they will lose market share.
The dominance of Betfair is v well on the downward spiral.
Kalshi and Polymarket
Last edited by megarain on Thu Oct 02, 2025 3:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
Interesting... so basically their 1st exchange style alternative to bookies, thx for posting
Looks like they're pushing hard into an older regulatory loophole, but it all sounds very optimistic
Unfortunately they don't accept EU customers, one would need a US social security number to register
It’s a shame they bet on the wrong football, most of the money ends up on a sport that the vast majority of Europeans don't even follow
Looks like they're pushing hard into an older regulatory loophole, but it all sounds very optimistic
Unfortunately they don't accept EU customers, one would need a US social security number to register
It’s a shame they bet on the wrong football, most of the money ends up on a sport that the vast majority of Europeans don't even follow
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 4541
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Any chance of them opening up to the UK at any point in your opinion?
I assume the Europe region is a legislative nightmare...
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Lynskey888
- Posts: 278
- Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2023 7:51 pm
From what I read it seems like Kalshi are sailing pretty close to the wind in terms of US legislation, claiming that their markets are fundamentally different to normal sports betting. Bound to catch up to them eventually, I think.
Interesting all the same.
Interesting all the same.
Plenty of people use Polymarket, all you need to do is transfer USDC. Problem with them is I’ve seen lots of occasions where they’ve settled the wrong result on purpose or changed the rules mid event which is cardinal sin #1.
Kalshi is by far the better product but they have a lot more hurdles to jump through regarding where you live etc. Hopefully they’ll get accepted into the UK but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Kalshi is by far the better product but they have a lot more hurdles to jump through regarding where you live etc. Hopefully they’ll get accepted into the UK but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
I'd actually have some expertise on a market like this, plus my family are AAA game devs
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgta6ontime ... te-on-time
EDIT : Way more volume on Poly tho, their graph paints a better picture : https://polymarket.com/event/gta-vi-released-in-2025
Btw they apparently have a waiting list for international users that people can sign up for, and seem to be prepping for it, as hard as it seems due to how different their centralized model is compared to Polymarket
The owner Tarek said "TBD" a year ago, another employee said they're working on it in an AMA 6 months ago
Yeah I think they've got more chance than Poly coming to the UK/EUKai wrote: ↑Wed Oct 01, 2025 4:40 pmBtw they apparently have a waiting list for international users that people can sign up for, and seem to be prepping for it, as hard as it seems due to how different their centralized model is compared to Polymarket
The owner Tarek said "TBD" a year ago, another employee said they're working on it in an AMA 6 months ago
There was a great podcast about a trader on Polymaket.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/b ... 0710032520
The UK exchange product has suffered from a lack of focus/incompetence/regulation/tax threats/etc etc.
It will be interesting to see how the USA marketplace evolves.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/b ... 0710032520
The UK exchange product has suffered from a lack of focus/incompetence/regulation/tax threats/etc etc.
It will be interesting to see how the USA marketplace evolves.
I've been on Polymarket a few months, the first new site I've signed up to in about 15 years.
In many ways they have a superior product to Betfair. You buy and sell shares so you never have to wait for markets to settle to receive profits from trades, i.e. buy (back) £50 at 3/1 and sell (lay) at evens, your account is £50 richer after executing the trade, not when the market settles.
You can also put up seemingly unlimited unmatched bets without your balance going down. Your balance only goes down when they get matched, and your other unmatched bets get automatically cancelled if your new balance can no longer cover any of the liabilities.
It all looks unsustainable though. I don't think the sites make any profit yet, and it doesn't look like they charge any commission or fees, they even pay customers 4% APR on some markets. I plan on withdrawing my initial deposit soon (hopefully no KYC issues) and playing on with profits thereafter, hopefully a good few years of global growth before they start introducing fees.
In many ways they have a superior product to Betfair. You buy and sell shares so you never have to wait for markets to settle to receive profits from trades, i.e. buy (back) £50 at 3/1 and sell (lay) at evens, your account is £50 richer after executing the trade, not when the market settles.
You can also put up seemingly unlimited unmatched bets without your balance going down. Your balance only goes down when they get matched, and your other unmatched bets get automatically cancelled if your new balance can no longer cover any of the liabilities.
It all looks unsustainable though. I don't think the sites make any profit yet, and it doesn't look like they charge any commission or fees, they even pay customers 4% APR on some markets. I plan on withdrawing my initial deposit soon (hopefully no KYC issues) and playing on with profits thereafter, hopefully a good few years of global growth before they start introducing fees.