Kalshi and Polymarket

[megarain]

Haven't heard of Kalshi before.

Followed Polymarket for ages. I should have invested when I had the chance, but such is life. Shayne has done a good job there.

It was easy apparently to invest.

They were looking for capital/brand ambassadors, and Phil Helmuth (poker player) was asked to invest $15k for some shares/a job as brand ambassador. He did his due diligence, asked a dozen people what they thought, and everyone said swerve.

That investment would now be worth $80m .. oops

https://www.pokernews.com/news/2025/03/ ... -48255.htm

[megarain]

“You can’t offer real generosity on these exchanges, because you’re sat in the middle,” Jackson said. “And consumers love generosity.
“And it is very difficult to find liquidity in all the different permutations you can have within the parlay product, and it’s more difficult if you have to put up capital behind every bet.”

Unlike DraftKings, Flutter has already announced its plans to get involved in prediction markets, via a partnership with CFTC-registered commodities giant CME. In a podcast episode released last week, CME CEO Terry Duffy revealed that the new product — named FanDuel Markets — will include markets on the price of indices like the S&P 500 or the price of gold that settle after an hour. The offering will not include sports, at least for now

[LeTiss]

Not heard of Kalshi. I've looked at Polymarket before and thought it looked full of very strange random markets......like will Peter Webb shag Amanda Holden before the end of 2026.

[megarain]

Draft kings down to GBP32.45 from almost GBP50.00 a month ago.

Flutter $242 from $290 a month ago.

I feel the drop is overdone and have bought DK.

I could never buy Flutter

dk share price.jpg

This chart was from 10 days ago, when I was discussing gambling sector shares with a few notables.
At the time DK was $37 and modestly undervalued.

This is not financial advice. Thou I am a winning financial trader.

viewtopic.php?p=349151#p349151

[Euler]

Haven't heard of Kalshi before.

Followed Polymarket for ages. I should have invested when I had the chance, but such is life. Shayne has done a good job there.

It was easy apparently to invest.

They were looking for capital/brand ambassadors, and Phil Helmuth (poker player) was asked to invest $15k for some shares/a job as brand ambassador. He did his due diligence, asked a dozen people what they thought, and everyone said swerve.

That investment would now be worth $80m .. oops

https://www.pokernews.com/news/2025/03/ ... -48255.htm

I had a conversation with Shane right at the start, but it's impossible to know at that very early stage if there is any potential and of course, there are so many people with the same pitches.

You can only every scatter lots around and hope you catch a bit one. But of course, you need a lot of risk captial to do that.

[megarain]

Interesting take that prediction markets need insider trading.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAUaeYw0BQo

Not sure how that affects the UK law that betting on inside knowledge is cheating .. and u might be prosecuted (thou only the Bet365 guy, actually, has done jail time)

[Kai]

That guy popped up on my feed with one of his first vids early on, he has an interesting background to say the least

[Kai]

JC gets more volume than most Betfair markets

[Euler]

Jesus Christ

[jamesedwards]

JC gets more volume than most Betfair markets

How do they even settle this? Who decides whether someone claiming to be JC is the real JC?

Is there an 'end of the world' market?

[Crazyskier]

JC gets more volume than most Betfair markets

I think people will have more to worry about than bets being settled, should this occur.

CS

[Euler]

It's amazing to see people think there was a 3% chance.

[Naffman]

Seems to be a hell of a lot of insider betting on Poly

IMG_5136.png

[Kai]

In any case the Poly guy became the youngest self-made billionaire this month (at 27), after he couldn't cover his rent just a few years ago

Btw the current top 10 markets are an evenly balanced mix of politics and sports, total volumes range from $50M to $150M

The cool thing compared to BF is that trades are public, so top performing wallets appear on leaderboards and you can see their open positions

Biggest winners are clearly insiders that make their millions and disappear, while on a weekly basis there are plenty of whales betting on sports

Some communities try and use bots to track top traders in real time but the leaderboards can be misleading tho... some guys have lost millions on Poly lifetime, but you don't know whether they're betting or hedging from elsewhere

[Kai]

Seems to be a hell of a lot of insider betting on Poly

I think most bizarre one I saw recently was this small British Youtuber that was caught betting against himself on whether he'd survive in the desert without water on livestream

https://cryptonews.com/exclusives/lord- ... -day-fast/

https://www.cryptopolitan.com/youtuber- ... -m-volume/